An introduction to the straits and bottlenecks of food maritime transport
report Mehr’s reporter, Hossein Shirzad, an agricultural development analyst, wrote about the importance of “sea transportation” in “international food trade” in a special note for Mehr;
In the last decade, rapid technological changes have occurred in the food sector and beyond, and have been able to transform the global food system. These transformative advances in crop-livestock and poultry science and genome editing, and improved efficiency in transportation and logistics, have coincided with changes in consumption patterns around the world. Today, less than a quarter of all food for direct human consumption is traded in international markets.
Increasing reliance on trade to meet global food demand
International trade in food and agricultural products, in turn, relies on a global network of transportation systems. A complex network of railways, waterways, ports, waterways and storage infrastructure supports the movement of products and fertilizers from farm or factory to port, region to region and port to port. This network is particularly dense in the 3 main food production and export sites of the United States, Brazil, China, and the Black Sea, and on its periphery. Each of these factors has the potential to disrupt current patterns of production, demand and trade, reduce dependence on today’s trade networks and bottlenecks, and open up new opportunities to manage the risk of food shocks. Supply chains are only as reliable as their weakest links, and the most critical parts of the international food transport network – the straits that this note calls “bottlenecks” – are along the shipping and land trade routes through which especially high volumes of goods transit. . These points can be natural features or man-made infrastructure and include straits, seaports, road and rail networks, and inland waterways.
Increasing reliance on trade to meet food demand entails an increasing dependence on the infrastructural backbone of transnational trade networks. The dramatic increase in grain producers in Brazil and the Black Sea has led to a steady decline in the US share of global grain exports and a corresponding decrease in the dependence of the global food system on US inland and coastal bottlenecks and straits. On the other hand, in the last three decades, dependence on the Caribbean coast and the interior of Brazil and the Black Sea has increased. Between 2000 and 2015, Brazil’s share of global wheat, corn, rice and soy exports increased from 6% to 17%. In the Black Sea, this increase was from 2% to 14%. 2023 statistics show that 58% of corn, wheat, rice and soybeans traded internationally are transported through at least one sea station. However, a significant share of the grain trade, more than 11%, relies on transit through one or two of the world’s straits for which there is no alternative route; For example, in terms of weight fluctuations, the Strait of Hormuz, with an annual capacity of 24 million tons of grain transit, varies from 108 million tons of grain passing through the Strait of Malacca .
In short, the Panama Canal and the Strait of Malacca are two key gateways through which western markets and Asian connects 4 strategic products. Every year, about one-fifth of the world’s soybean exports and one-sixth of the world’s corn exports pass through the Panama Canal. A major part of this trade originates from the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, and its final destination is the Asian markets. Also, one-fifth of global wheat exports and one-sixth of global corn exports go through the Turkish Straits, which shows the importance of Black Sea producers for global export markets, and more than a quarter of global soybean exports, a large part of which is for the expanding pork and poultry markets in China is East Asia and Southeast Asia, with 20% of international rice trade passing through the Straits of Malacca.
sea straits and the passage of agricultural fertilizers
Straits are also vital for global fertilizer trade; For example, only 6 countries, Belarus, Canada, China, India, Russia, and the United States, account for 70% of global fertilizer production and more than 50% of global exports. The supply concentration for certain types of fertilizers is even higher; For example, Belarus, Canada and Russia produce more than 90% of the world’s potassium chloride (MOP). The United States relies on imports for about 89 percent of its domestic potash consumption and more than 40 percent of its nitrogen consumption.
Potassium chloride – the world’s most traded fertilizer – 25% from the Strait of Gibraltar 32% through The Suez Canal and the Bab al Mandb Strait and 25% passes through the Malacca Strait. Global fertilizer commodity flows are dominated by Chinese shipments from Belarus, Russia and Canada, China is the second largest importer of potassium chloride after the United States. Regarding the phosphate trade, 32% of the diammonium phosphate (DAP) trade, one of the most widely used phosphate fertilizers, comes from the strait every year. justify”>Malacca pass.
Brazil has increased its fertilizer imports to meet the rapid growth of its export production by importing more than 50% of the country’s fertilizer needs in all 3 types of nutrients. keep Ukraine is a net exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, but more than 80% of its phosphate and potassium fertilizer needs are imported. China is an exporter of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers and an important producer of potassium fertilizer, the latter of which reaches domestic consumption (with an additional supply of potassium fertilizer imported from Belarus, Canada, and Russia). India is one of the major importers of phosphate and potash. The European Union depends on imports for about 40% of its potash needs, but is a major producer and exporter of nitrogenous and mixed fertilizers.
Sea Straits and Transport Dependency
Dependence on sea bottlenecks has increased since the beginning of the last century. In 2000, a total of 42% of global grain exports were transported through one or more maritime bottlenecks. In 2015, this total increased to 55% and in 2025 to 62%. Much of this growth in traffic has been related to wheat and corn supplied by Black Sea producers to China and other booming Asian markets.
In the case of the Strait of Malacca, the fastest increase in capacity (as a share of exports) is It has been soy, which reflects the rapid growth of imports in Asian countries, especially China. However, the picture of increasing the throughput of these straits is not uniform. Some sea straits (such as Strait of Dover, Strait of Hormuz) an increasing share E of world trade. Grains do today compared to a decade ago, while others have seen a gradual increase in traffic. For example, between 2000 and 2015, the annual capacity as a share of world grain exports for the Turkish Straits, the Suez Canal, the Bab al Mandb Strait and the Malacca grew rapidly as a result of the growth of trade between the Black Sea, the Middle East and Asia.
China’s growing demand for imported soybeans has important implications for trade through the Panama Canal and the Strait of Malaccastyle=”text-a..”> – two gateways linking China to North American and South American soybean producers – and will continue to increase production capacity in the coming years. Today, Chinese imports account for 43 percent of trade in strategic agricultural commodities, with 39 percent of goods shipped through the Panama Canal passing through the Strait of Malacca.
China’s demand is expected to account for almost half of global food demand growth by 2050, and the country’s soybean imports are expected to exceed the annual total by 2025. exceed 100 million tons.
Increased transit volume, space and human resource constraints in the Malacca Strait may lead to delays Frequent and likely collisions in this crowded corridor. The annual capacity of food shipments through the Suez Canal, the Strait of Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz en route to Middle East and North African (MENA) markets has grown rapidly in recent years. .
Between 2000 and 2015, wheat imports from the Mena region from the Suez Canal grew by 120%. . Grains that passed through the Bab al Mandb Strait increased by 98%. Also, until 2014, the Strait of Hormuz also showed a similar upward trend with a 45% increase in shipments compared to 2000. Shipments through the strait fell by 47% in 2015 as a result of a significant drop in Saudi Arabia’s imports – the result of increased domestic wheat production and a reduction in strategic reserves. as a result of completing the country’s domestic wheat production program in 2015 and between 2000 and 2013 , the dependence of the Middle East and North Africa region on grain imports through these 3 straits, which is measured as a share of the domestic supply, increased by about 25%.
The World Bank predicts that the rapid population growth in the Middle East will cause a 63% increase in grain demand in Arab countries in the next 40 years, But water scarcity and limited supply of arable land, It will limit domestic production. As a result, grain imports into the MENA region—currently the world’s largest net importer of wheat—are expected to increase by more than 95 percent from 2010 levels by 2050.
Efficiency, productivity and loading, unloading and storage capacities
Meanwhile, the capacity and efficiency of loading and unloading operations, storage facilities and external connections in ports are the key factors that determine food transportation costs, and the major interruption One or more of these inland and coastal bottlenecks could clearly have serious consequences for international markets, especially if an event occurs during the harvest season when the use of transport infrastructure peaks; Even seemingly minor interruptions are important.
Capacity and efficiency of loading and unloading operations, storage facilities and external connections at ports are key factors determining food transportation costs. The impact of domestic delays on shipping costs is estimated to be 7 times greater than ocean shipping delays; Therefore, wars, pirates, geopolitical conflicts, logistical inefficiencies can cause delivery to be delayed for weeks, leading to increased costs and spoilage of agricultural products and chemical fertilizers due to heat and humidity.
The alarming situation of the Suya road
Brazil is the largest exporter of soybeans in the world, and most of its exports are shipped from ports on the southeast coast. Ports Santos, Paranagua, Rio Grande and São Francisco de Sol are next to each other. A quarter of the global soybean exports, but the connection of these export centers to the productive areas inside the country is collapsing with a network of roads, which are estimated to be 70% in poor condition and only 12% of them are asphalted. Alternative export routes are limited; The edge that forms Brazil’s Atlantic coastline is a natural barrier to port development, while the narrowness and poor quality of the roads prevent soybean exports from moving to the port of Santrem It is in the northeast. The long distances from the main producing areas to the coast, combined with poor roads, result in very high transportation costs compared to the United States.
Soybean transportation cost from Mato Grosso, where nearly two-thirds of soybeans exported to China are grown, to the port of Santos, about 20 percent of the shipping cost Soy to Shanghai. The economic impact of these inefficiencies is significant.
According to one estimate, logistics costs related to capacity shortages and shipping delays were equivalent to 12% of Brazil’s GDP in 2012. In the United States, agricultural land in the Midwest—including some of the most productive in the world—is connected by an extensive network of waterways, railroads, and roads to Gulf Coast ports, East Coast And the Pacific Northwest coast is connected. About 60 percent of U.S. agricultural exports move from farm to port through the 12,000-mile inland waterway system—a network consisting of the Mississippi River and its major tributaries.
A significant share of US wheat exports (about 63 percent) and grain shipments (29 percent) are transported by rail, and this network is equally under It is pressure. Among the 3 port areas connected by these internal transportation corridors, the most important of them for global food and fertilizer trade is the Persian Gulf coast. More than half of US grain exports are shipped from this region, including 20 percent of global corn exports, 17 percent of global soybean exports, and 4 percent of global wheat exports. Also, 3% of global fertilizer exports are shipments from Persian Gulf coast ports.
Regarding Black Sea ports and railways, it should also be mentioned that the global supply of wheat and corn is increasingly It depends on a handful of major export routes from the Black Sea region. However, insufficient investment in infrastructure raises questions about the viability of development plans.
Today, 60-65% of Russian and Ukrainian grain exports are transported by rail to 6 ports on the Black Sea coast. The volume of cargo output from these ports is about 26% of the global wheat export and 15% of the global fertilizer export every year. Many railway lines, processing facilities, intermodal corridors and port facilities suffer from poor infrastructure quality. Poor transportation facilities and outdated loading equipment contribute to high transportation costs, delays, and congestion. Partly as a result, farm-to-port logistics costs in Ukraine are 40 percent higher than in Western Europe. Costs are even higher in Russia and Kazakhstan. For this reason, where possible, exports from both countries exit through deep-water ports in Ukraine and Estonia. In the future, a combination of increasing exports and insufficient investment will put the infrastructure of the Black Sea region under increasing pressure.
Concluding Remarks
Currently, the food system is a complex web of trade dependencies and international supply chains characterized by increasing interconnectedness. Between 2000 and 2015, the volume of agricultural goods traded in international markets increased by 127% to 2.2 billion tons.
Population growth, diet change, slowing down of the production of basic products due to climate change and increasing stress on basic resources have upset the balance of supply and demand in many countries. and increases their reliance on imported food. On the other hand, the global supply of grains and fertilizers is highly concentrated among a handful of producing regions, and international maritime trade is increasingly important for global food security. As international markets become increasingly e integrated by national food security imperatives, disruptions in logistics, transportation networks, and bottlenecks that global food trade face is dependent, it also increases in the way that the share of international commercial grains and fertilizers has increased continuously since 2000 and it seems that this trend will continue.
Some countries, especially the countries of the Middle East, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and in the Black Sea region, to access international markets almost completely to one or Some of the world’s 8 famous sea bottlenecks are related. From a broader point of view, international food trade relies on a network of land and sea transport routes along which 14 straits are located with strategic global importance.
As mentioned, global food security is based on the international trade of a handful of products. Corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans together provide about two-thirds of the calories harvested in the world. While the production of these products is concentrated in a few regions known as the “bread basket”, the demand for calories is ubiquitous and reliance on imports is increasing. These bottlenecks and straits are exposed to a range of destructive hazards that threaten to delay important food shipments, yet the risk of such supply disruptions is largely ignored in current food security analyses. Poor logistics services and high transportation costs reduce investment and attraction of foreign companies. In Latin America and the Caribbean, logistics costs absorb 18-35% of product value and consume 16-26% of GDP. For comparison, in OECD countries, similar costs do not exceed 8% of product value on average and do not represent more than 9% of GDP. Therefore, a major weakness is the uncertain logistics of the country’s current transportation system. In this regard, according to geopolitical and geoeconomic concerns, new approaches to risk management in global food trade to create an understanding of the risk of strait blockage and develop risk reduction strategies and Formulation of strong commercial diplomacy regarding the adjustment of the food security risk portfolio at the national level is needed.
