From “Sykes-Picot” to the “Abraham Accords”: How the Resistance Front Compelled US to Concede

Mahdi Khanalizade, suthor and Lecturer in International Relations

After the Soviet Union collapsed and the “bipolar system” dissolved, the US, seeing itself as the victor of the Cold War, aimed to establish a hegemonic security regime based on “American unipolarity.” This strategy was pursued by then-President George H.W. Bush. In the new world order he envisioned, which was a unipolar structure, the US was to remain at the pinnacle of global power as the enduring hegemon, striving to preserve the unipolar world structure in various regions.

The West Asia region has long been a hotspot for crises and wars, and since the 19th century, it has become a focal point for the competition and intervention of major powers. This region has, in fact, been one of the most internationally significant areas in the world for many years. The numerous developments in West Asia have been shaped by its importance to global powers. As a result, the security order in this region plays a crucial role in the broader international security structure. After the Cold War ended and the world shifted to a new era dominated by US hegemony, the influence of major powers on regional security dynamics changed significantly. In this new context, the US viewed West Asia as one of the most volatile regions, with the potential to become the epicenter of global security challenges. To exert effective control over the region, the US pursued various strategies, including initiatives like the Greater Middle East and the New Middle East, efforts to change regimes in non-aligned countries, and the strategic encirclement of these nations.

In the post-Cold War era, we witnessed a new phase of American hegemonism, where the US government intensified its efforts to establish a hegemonic order, particularly in sensitive regions of the world. For instance, after Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1991, the US directly intervened to uphold the order it sought to impose, directly affecting regional countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

The effort to create a new security framework that would bolster this hegemony faced significant challenges in the years following the US-led coalition’s military invasion of Iraq. Various factors, including the rise of a new security coalition in West Asia—referred to by some experts as the “Resistance Front”—challenged the regional security structure that the US aimed to establish.

The “Abraham” Dream Unfulfilled

As we enter the third decade of the 21st century, there are clear signs that the hegemonic power in one of the world’s most strategic regions is in serious decline. Key objectives in this area have not been met, and both the US and Israel are still seen as primary threats by the region’s people and leaders. Anti-American sentiment is growing across West Asia, and political Islam, after the Persian Gulf War, is experiencing a resurgence. This shift has prompted the US to acknowledge the need for a change in West Asia’s security order, as it struggles to counter these trends. In response, Washington introduced the “Abraham Accords” to redirect these changes in favor of its own interests.

Since the creation of the Zionist regime, all Arab countries have officially opposed Israel’s existence. While Israel and nations like Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon have engaged in several wars, the military involvement of more distant Arab countries has been relatively limited. The 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel significantly changed the political dynamics of West Asia, shifting the focus of Arab-Israeli relations away from the frontline states. In the years that followed, US efforts and those of certain Arab countries, like Saudi Arabia, to openly establish relations with Israel were unsuccessful for various reasons. Finally, in August 2020, the US, along with Israel and the UAE, jointly announced a normalization agreement. A month later, the Abraham Accords were signed, with Bahrain and Sudan also joining.

However, recent developments since the signing of the Abraham Accords—including the increasing tensions between Riyadh and Washington—indicate that announcing the normalization of relations between Arab countries and Israel, as well as the clear stances of Arab and non-Arab countries, particularly Turkey, towards Israel, have led to greater alignment with and acceptance of the Resistance Front among the public in West Asia. A survey by the “German Institute for International and Security Affairs” reported that 68% of Syrian and Iraqi citizens supported the actions of the Resistance Front.

A closer look at key indicators related to the transformation of the security order in West Asia reveals that the goals of the Abraham Accords have not been fully achieved. For instance, one of the concerning developments for the Resistance Front in the past decade was the rapprochement of some Arab countries with Israel and the establishment of relations with it. After the public normalization of ties between the UAE and Bahrain with Israel, and the clear compromise of Arab leaders in the Abraham Accords, Iran’s central role in supporting Palestine became more prominent, strengthening the Resistance Front and the active role of groups like “Islamic Jihad.”

The recent landscape of West Asia shows the presence of two distinct groups: revisionists and supporters of the status quo. Iran, as the pivot of the Resistance Front, is working to redefine the regional order and security framework, capitalizing on factors like power vacuums, challenges faced by US and its allies, and new opportunities arising from the Islamic awakening and crisis management in Iraq and Syria. Opposing them is a coalition that includes actors like Israel, backed by the US. The ideological and geopolitical struggle between these two groups is observable in the regional order and security dynamics in West Asia.

The Rise of the Resistance Front in West Asia

As geographical, political, and strategic factors shift within the defense and security policies of nations, they inevitably lead to changes in geopolitical alignments. In West Asia, the regional order underwent a major transformation after the US military invasion of Iraq in 2003. A key element of this new landscape was the theoretical emergence of what is now known as the “Resistance Front.”

The “Resistance Front” is an informal coalition of movements and governments in Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Palestine. It was established with the aim of fighting against Israel, resisting Western influence in West Asia, and supporting the liberation of Palestine. The term first appeared in a Libyan newspaper as a counter to the “Axis of Evil” label that US President George W. Bush used in 2002. The article argued that the countries Bush identified as part of the “Axis of Evil” were actually members of a Resistance Front opposing Washington’s global dominance. Initially, this front consisted of an alliance between Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, but it has since expanded to include several other countries.

The withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon in 2000 was the first official demonstration of the Resistance Front’s influence in West Asia. Hezbollah made its first formal military statement on January 6, 1984, under the name “Islamic Resistance.” Between 1982 and May 24, 2000, Hezbollah’s resistance evolved and intensified, moving from Istishhadi attacks to guerrilla warfare and eventually large-scale ambushes against Israeli positions and forces in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli cabinet took its first step toward withdrawing from southern Lebanon in 1998, when it announced its refusal to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 425, issued in 1978. In response, the Lebanese government demanded the unconditional withdrawal of Israeli forces. On February 28, 1999, Resistance forces assassinated General Erez Gerstein, the commander of Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, by detonating his convoy. The military pressure on Israel, combined with growing public dissatisfaction within Israel over the ongoing war in southern Lebanon and the increasing international legitimacy of Hezbollah, eventually forced the Israeli cabinet to approve the withdrawal plan on March 6, 2000. The following April, then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak informed UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan that Israel would unilaterally withdraw its forces from Lebanon.

The increased prominence of the Resistance Front after 2001 can be traced to US policies aimed at reshaping West Asia, especially those following the 2003 Iraq War. During this period, while some conservative Arab countries were forming a new front in West Asia, the Resistance Front also emerged in a new form, with its main base in the Islamic Republic of Iran and supported by the Syrian government and Resistance movements in Lebanon and Palestine. The 33-day war in Lebanon in 2006 and the 22-day war in Gaza in 2008 against Israel were the first major military engagements of the Resistance Front in its new form.

In 2011, the Arab world experienced a wave of unrest, beginning in Tunisia and quickly spreading to other Arab countries, including Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, and Libya. In Bahrain, this unrest was suppressed by Saudi military intervention, in Egypt through a coup, and in Saudi Arabia and Jordan through financial and security measures. However, in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, the unrest led to civil wars due to direct and indirect Western military interventions. In Libya, this ultimately resulted in a change of the political system, but in Syria, the situation unfolded differently. The Syrian people and government, who had long played a central role in supporting the Palestinian cause, resisted the American-Israeli military intervention and emerged victorious, continuing their support for the anti-Israeli Resistance in Palestine and Lebanon.

The informal end of the war in Yemen, marked by the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the confrontation with terrorist groups previously backed by some regional countries, signals the emergence of a new security order in the region. In this new order, Israel remains a significant security concern and a threat to many countries.

This shift has changed the pattern of hegemonic power’s influence in the region. According to the Copenhagen School of security studies, different regions of the world have experienced various patterns of hegemonic influence, and West Asia is one of the regions where both global powers have sought to exert influence, investing considerable national resources. However, the gradual success of the Resistance Front has led to the formation of a new security system in which hegemonic powers are no longer the primary forces shaping regional security dynamics.

(The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Khamenei.ir.)