Port workers’ strike, the new challenge of the American economy

reported

Political observers in America have long talked about the “October Surprise”; A situation that, according to them, has the ability to upset the equations of the presidential race in the last stage. With the strike of 45,000 dock workers across America, such a moment may have arrived.

The decision by the International Dock Workers Union (ILA) to strike on Tuesday threatens to cause economic chaos in the weeks leading up to the November 5 vote. Following these strikes, operations have been halted at 36 ports on the East and Gulf coasts, from Texas to Maine, which collectively handle more than half of all imports by sea.

While shoppers likely won’t notice immediate changes in stores, a prolonged strike could wreak havoc on supply chains, leading to shortages and higher prices for consumers. Goods ranging from seafood and bananas to clothing, electronics, cars and medicines are more exposed to the consequences of these strikes.

JPMorgan estimated before the start of the strike that the closure of ports on the east and coast of the Gulf of Mexico could cost the US economy $5 billion a day.

ILA President Harold Doggett has warned that a strike could “cripple” the economy if the union’s demands for a 77 percent pay rise over six years and a halt to port automation projects are not met. Cars aren’t coming in, food isn’t coming in, clothes aren’t coming in, Doggett said in remarks broadcast on Fox News. Do you know how many people depend on our job? Half of the world.

President Joe Biden, who has presented himself as the most pro-union president in American history, has expressed support for workers’ demands and calls for the use of the powers contained in the Taft Act. Hartley has rejected 1947 to order them back to work.

This situation could be a potential danger for Kamala Harris, the candidate of the Democratic Party in the upcoming elections in the United States, at a time when Harris is trying to gain the trust of voters on economic issues. to follow.

Recent polls show that Harris, who has narrowly led Donald Trump in most competitive polls, has distanced himself from former President Trump over who should run the economy, one It is more appropriate to reduce one of the biggest vulnerabilities of the Democrats.

One ​​possible reason for this is that American consumers, who mostly blame Biden for higher prices, are feeling less of an economic squeeze these days. After peaking at 9.1 percent in mid-2022, U.S. inflation eased to 2.2 percent in August, the lowest rate in more than three and a half years.

The US Federal Reserve last month announced its first interest rate cut in four years, a strong signal that concerns about prices are behind us. Rising prices, just as voters head to the polls, will reinforce the perception that the economy has been marginalized under Democratic stewardship.

The main risk for Harris depends on whether voters see him more as part of the current administration or the candidate for change he has sought to portray to the public. Harris is an unusual candidate, given his late entry into the race after Biden stepped down in July. But there are evidences that the voters consider him to represent the continuation of the current government.

In a New York Times poll published earlier this month, 55 percent of respondents said Harris represented “the same old issues,” compared to 34 percent of Trump. Trump then wasted no time tying the strike to Harris, citing the “huge inflation created by the Harris-Biden regime” as the reason for the work stoppage. Trump told Fox News shortly after the strike began that everyone understands the dock workers because they’ve been crushed by inflation, just like everyone else in this country and beyond.

Any effort by Harris to differentiate himself from Biden in the strike carries its own risks, particularly the risk of alienating union members who have traditionally voted Democratic. , get away from yourself.

While it is impossible to predict the impact of this massive strike on the outcome of the US presidential election, what is certain is that the Harris campaign will have to deal with such a big surprise with only five weeks to go. , will not be happy.