Who is the winner of the US election in national polls and 7 key states?
Mehr News, International Group: Americans tomorrow, Tuesday, November 5 (Aban 15) to elect the president The next American president will go to the polls to determine the fate of the country’s government for the next four years; The four-year period that will start from January 2025.
What do the latest polls say?
On the eve of the election, the opinion polls showed a very small advantage of Kamala Harris, the vice president of the United States and The candidate of the Democratic Party talks about “Donald Trump”, the previous president and the candidate of the Republican spectrum.
Based on the survey of the analysis site “Five However, a survey conducted by Rail Clear Politics” (RealClearPolitics) shows that Trump with 48.4 percent compared to Harris‘s 48.1 is slightly ahead, giving him a 0.3 lead.
The Silver Bulletin survey center owned by Nate Silver, a great American researcher in the field of statistics, Harris leads with 48.5 percent to Trump’s 47.4, by a 1.1 margin.
“New York Times” also shows a similar result and Harris with 49% against Trump, 48, is only one point ahead of his rival.
Newsweek magazine put these results in sharp contrast with the leads of “Joe Biden” and “Hillary Clinton” knew the Democratic candidates in the election years of 2020 (1397) and 2016 (1393) and wrote: According to Five Thirty It, in 2020, Biden with 8 .4 points ahead of Trump, and has consistently maintained his lead among other pollsters such as Reil Clair Politics and saved “toWin270”. Clinton also in 2016 in model Five Thirty IT was 6.2 points ahead of Trump in the same situation; A result that was confirmed by other polls such as Real Clear Politics and toWin270 were also repeated.
This report, referring to the defeat of Clinton in 2016, who lost in the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote, emphasized: a small advantage Harris towards Trump and the challenge of the electoral map that emphasizes the need to get 270 Electoral College votes to win the election may be the fate of Harris like what happened to Hillary Clinton.
Course of hope for Democrats in recent days with Harris‘s lead over Trump in polls It is visible early; Polls that have shown that Harris has a significant advantage over Trump among Americans who, according to themselves, have participated in early voting in their country’s presidential elections.
Several companies including ABC News / Ipsos, New York Times =”text-a..”>Sienna College” and “CNN” have conducted polls asking respondents who identified themselves as participating in early voting for the 2024 US presidential election. These polls have shown a range of advantages from 19 to 29 percent for Democratic presidential candidate Harris over his Republican rival Trump.
These advantages are even more than the advantages that Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, had over the Republican candidate Trump in the days before the 2016 presidential election. , were recorded in surveys; Polls at that time showed a range of 8 to 16 percent for Clinton.
Status of candidates in seven key and decisive (battleground) states
Based on the records of the elections in the United States, experts believe that only seven states, which have many names such as “key states”, “decisive states” And known as “swing states,” they determine the tenant of the White House.
On the eve of the 2024 election, the results of the polls in seven key and swing states of America, a tight race between Trump and Harris are shown. In the states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, the differences are very small, and most of these states are about equal.
Based on polls, Harris in the three so-called “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, although polling averages show no candidate leading by more than 2.5 points in any of the seven key areas.
According to the Washington Post, according to a new poll, Harris 48-49 percent among voters. He leads in all seven key states, but 14 percent of state voters are considering their options.
In North Carolina, Trump is leading by one percentage point. In Georgia, Trump is ahead of his rival by two percentage points. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads 48%-47%, according to a Washington Post poll.
According to the same poll in Michigan, Harris leads Trump by two points. Harris is ahead in Michigan by 1.1 points in the Five30 polling average. In Wisconsin, Harris has two percent more chances of winning than Trump. In Nevada, Harris has a one-point lead in almost all polls. But in Arizona, Trump is about 2.3 percent ahead of Harris.
Conclusion
New polls show tight race between Trump and Harris not only nationally but It is in the seven key states that can determine the final result of the election. The outcome in these states will likely depend on voter turnout and the final decision of independent voters, who will play a decisive role in the election. Due to the closeness of the results, any slight change in the votes can have a significant effect on the final result.
Therefore, in the upcoming elections, the position of the Democratic candidate against his Republican rival is worse than that of “Joe Biden” in the 2020 election and “Hillary Clinton” in 2016 against “Donald Trump” and this issue makes it difficult for him to get 270 Electoral College votes.
This important point should also be kept in mind that despite the tight competition between two Democratic and Republican candidates in the upcoming elections and a very small advantage Harris against Trump, but you can’t just rely on the results of the polls; Like the polls of the 2016 elections in this country, which contrary to all speculations and opinion polls, Trump won and went to the White House.
