China’s GDP growth will slow down in 2025
reported by Mehr News Agency, UBS investment bank changed its forecast of China’s economic growth next year due to the threat of severe US tariffs on Chinese goods during the presidency. Donald Trump’s presidency cut, although other global financial institutions have stuck to slightly more optimistic forecasts.
The Swiss bank said on Sunday it expects China’s gross domestic product to grow “around 4 percent” next year, down from an estimate of 4.5 percent in October. The bank added that it expects growth in the world’s second-largest economy to be significantly lower in 2026.
According to Tao Wang, President The bank’s Asia Economics division assumes that the new Trump administration will impose additional tariffs on most imports from China in a phased manner starting in the second half of 2025, although uncertainty remains high over the scale and timing of tariffs and other US policies. Wang added that the factors for reducing the forecast of GDP in 2025 are the continued weakness in China’s real estate market.
UBS expects the yuan to weaken against the US dollar to 7.3 per dollar by the end of this year. yuan and at the end of 2025, each dollar will be traded at 7.6 yuan.
international banks Goldman Sachs and HSBC said on Monday it was sticking to its pre-election forecast of China’s economy growing between 4 and 5 percent next year, as the country grapples with pressure from The real estate market is facing continuous stagnation and weak consumption.
Zhang Ming, Vice President of the Financial Institution And Banking, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said last week that it expects China to re-set its economic growth target of around 5 percent in 2025. China has reported GDP growth of 4.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2024, rising to 5.2 percent in 2023.
Trump said during his presidential campaign that his administration would impose tariffs of between 60 and 100 percent on imports from China, which sent $500 billion of goods to the United States last year. . During his presidency from 2017 to 2021, Trump added tariffs between 10 and 25 percent on Chinese goods.
China is expected to support its economy with increased stimulus measures, and on Friday, China’s top lawmaker announced a reduction in debt risk, an event that leaves local governments free. Thus, local governments and Chinese state-owned enterprises may try to boost the property market by buying unsold houses.
