Examining the impact of the US election on the war in Ukraine and the future of the world order

reportMehr News Agency, the promotional chair “The impact of the American elections on the Ukraine war and the future of the world order” on Sunday, December 4, 1403, under the auspices of the “Islamic Revolution Studies Group” at the “Research Institute of Islamic Culture and Thought” It was held. In this meeting, Dr. Reza Ansari was present as a presenter and Dr. Abolfazl Amoui was present as a critic.

Dr. Reza Ansari has recently written a book about the war in Ukraine and the world order, which will be embellished in the next few weeks.

At the beginning of the discussion, Dr. Ansari introduced the Ukraine war as a realistic confrontation between the West and Russia and considered the West’s main goal to involve Russia in the quagmire of the Ukraine war, in order to Russia will be weakened. Therefore, from the beginning, the goal was for Russia to engage in a war of attrition and this war would not end soon.

Europe’s concern is that the appeasement policy is not repeated in Russia. During the Second World War, Europe appeased Nazi Germany in the occupation of Poland, and this led to the strengthening of the German war machine. Also, on the subject of the annexation of Crimea, Europe feels that it has appeased and this has caused Russia to advance.

Trump, as someone who cares about economic issues, has repeatedly emphasized that spending money on the war in Ukraine is a waste of resources. It should also be kept in mind that Europe considers Russia to be its main threat and therefore allows any kind of expense. But this necessity and threat does not exist for America. Because he considers China to be the main threat, and instead of pushing Russia into the Ukraine war, he only sought to restrain Russia. The West had agreed with Russia that NATO would not approach Russia’s borders. But he deliberately brought up the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO so that Russia would be in a difficult choice position.

However, Trump considers the war in Ukraine pointless and believes that he will end the war quickly with his knowledge of Putin. Probably his opinion is that Ukraine will give a concession (probably giving a part of the territory) to Russia and the war will end. Putin is also likely to welcome this agreement.

This new US policy in the Trump era makes Europe move towards the balance of power. In this case, Germany will move towards increasing its military power, and this will increase the military budget of other countries such as France and England.

One ​​of the topics that Dr. Reza Ansari mentioned was the occurrence of an unexpected war in Europe. The conclusion of the Europeans was that the period of war in Europe is over and if there is a war in the world, it will be in the Middle East. For this reason, he was willing to make a huge investment for the “Nord Stream” pipeline. But contrary to all calculations, this war happened. Europe must now decide how to manage the continuation of the war, and with America likely to withdraw from the war, Europe must seek new allies. One of the options is to give more role to Türkiye. After the disappointment of joining the European Union, Türkiye is moving towards becoming a regional power. Now Europe needs Turkey to enter the war and may even make this country a member of the European Union to encourage Turkey to get more involved in the war. In this case, due to Türkiye’s military power and Türkiye’s cultural influence, the equations in the European Union will change a lot.

But what role does Iran play in this? Iran is an important regional power, and of course the West does not recognize this power and tries to force Iran to change its behavior by punishing it. For example, in the issue of Syria and Lebanon, they did not allow Iran to negotiate and did not allow Iran to play a role in this field. If the West ever recognizes Iran as a regional power, then it will behave more reasonably. In the issue of drones, Europe is not ready to recognize Iran in its current state and therefore instead of dialogue and understanding, it adopts the method of punishment.

We can see this issue in the difference in Europe’s behavior towards Iran and Russia: German Chancellor called and talked to Putin after two years. The meaning of this call is that although we are at war together, I recognize you as a power and I am ready to talk with you. This situation does not exist in the case of Iran, and in principle, Europe is not willing to consider Iran as a power that can be discussed. Rather, he tries to bring Iran back to the position he imagines by punishing him. This situation is harmful for Iran and Europe. Because it will subject Iran to sanctions and pressure, and Europe will also be deprived of Iran’s constructive role in solving problems. Despite Europe’s denial, Iran is truly a regional power and can be effective in solving problems and challenges.

In the future order of the world, Iran is looking for a multi-polar system in which Europe and America are not the dominant poles. In addition, Iran is looking for a situation in which Iran’s regional position is recognized.

After Dr. Ansari’s presentation, the critic of Dr. Abulfazl Amoui’s discussion presented his critique. “Special Assistant to the Speaker of the Parliament for International Affairs”, criticizing the arrangement of the topics presented, added: “I think we could have started with the discussion that a war started in Ukraine 1,000 days ago and what changes has this war brought about?” In response, it should have been pointed out that what is the current world order? The war in Ukraine will not change the current order, but it will accelerate the variables of changing the existing order. The existing order is oppressive and exclusive and does not give Iran a place. Iran is seeking to change this order so that this monopoly is broken and justice with the meaning of the Islamic Revolution flows and Iran has more power to play. In this order, the West will not be destroyed and will not be put together. But his position will be adjusted.

The former member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Islamic Council pointed out the signs of a change in the world order: before, resources always went from the East to the West. But now this situation is reversed. America has become an energy exporter. Because after stopping Russian gas exports to Europe, Europe turned to America and America was able to become an energy exporter with European capital. Especially with the intensification of shale oil extraction and its economicization, American energy exports have increased. On the other hand, Russia has to approach China to sell its energy. Therefore, energy goes from America to Europe and from Russia to China, and this causes the polarization of the world to intensify. Russia to China; And Europe has become more dependent on America.

Amoui emphasized that in this situation, another variable named Trump will come to power and make changes. For example, Biden has always defended his economic record, which has reduced unemployment and boosted businesses after the Covid-19 pandemic. But Trump says that this reduction in unemployment happened to immigrants, not the American people. For real unemployment to occur, immigration must be limited. In addition, Trump believes that tariffs should be intensified, especially tariffs on European goods. Another thing that is related to our discussion is to end the wars that cost America a lot. So far, the US has spent 184 billion dollars on Ukraine. Biden is trying to forgive part of Ukraine’s debt and give another 6 billion to Ukraine in the remaining two months. Biden is trying not to solve the equation of the war in Ukraine. Therefore, 5 days after the election, the United States issued permission to use American weapons to attack the depths of Russia. This action increases the tension and makes the solution more difficult.

Remembering that Trump may not be able to end the war with the current situation, Dr. Amoui stated that Trump’s other option is to withdraw from financing the war in Ukraine. In this case, due to the weak economy, Europe becomes more dependent on America and American weapons are sold more. In any case, the definite goal of the United States is that Russia does not win and is weakened by this means, and it will pursue this goal with each of these two scenarios.

The new US president is more interested in ending the war than dealing with China. This is also a desirable issue for Russia. Because Russia made a calculation error and did not imagine that the war would be so long and deep, and if Russia loses, its power will be greatly weakened.

Next, the attendees expressed their points and at the end, Dr. Ansari answered the questions and summarized his content.

Dr. Reza Ansari pointed out at the end that we performed poorly in the field of media and this caused us to be placed next to Russia. While China, without being the target of media attacks, has provided the most economic assistance to Russia and the failure of sanctions.