the narrative of the fall; Why did “Bashar Assad” leave the seat of power?
Mehr News, International Group: 8th Sunday December 2024 remained in the contemporary history of Syria. After 54 years of rule by the Baath party and the Assad family over the political affairs of the historical land of “Sham”, the terrorists succeeded in only 10 days to conquer Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Daraa and finally Damascus, putting an end to the political life of the ophthalmologist. Educated in London. With the fall of Damascus, all government and military centers came under the control of terrorists and the Syrian Prime Minister promised to hold free elections to determine the constitution and future ruler of Syria based on Security Council Resolution 2254.
According to the state news agency “Tass”, Bashar Assad and his family also entered Moscow and received political asylum from Russia. Herzi Helvi, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, who found the conditions suitable for the expansion of the battlefield to Syria, officially announced that the Zionist regime’s attack on southern Syria will begin. In the meantime, the main question of many audience and even experts is how the armed opponents were able to move towards the capital without any resistance from the army or the Syrian people and dominate the affairs of Damascus? Why didn’t history repeat itself and this time Assad could not stay in power?
Why didn’t Assad ask for help from the resistance?
Monitoring the movements of the Syrian opposition in Idlib province on the one hand and on the other hand the chaotic situation of the Syrian army in different fronts caused until last month a group of Iranian military commanders to travel Warn Damascus about the ongoing developments in this Arab country. The information obtained from the security agencies indicated that the terrorists present in Idlib started extensive movements to train the troops and equip them with all kinds of offensive-defensive weapons. This issue caused Iran’s advisory units to become sensitive to the current events in the northwest of Syria and seek to revive and make the military units of the resistance in the surrounding area of Idlib province more agile. The realization of this required Bashar Assad’s green light.
During this trip, what became more and more apparent to the Iranian authorities was the growing dissatisfaction of the people with the Syrian government due to the lack of infrastructure reconstruction and the accumulation of economic problems. In the last few months, the people of al-Suwayda province, known as the old bases and supporters of the Assad government, started mass protests due to the spread of famine, the lack of proper public services and the devaluation of the national currency. This situation is more or less visible in other parts of Syria. The above set of factors caused the Iranian authorities to explain the challenges facing the Syrian government in the military, economic and public opinion fronts and warn about the need to deal with each of them.
Avoid resistance and deception of new friends!
Unfortunately, Bashar Assad, in response to the benevolence of Iranian friends, officially announced that he could not take any action to solve the mentioned problems. He also claimed that the terrorists do not have the ability to wage a large-scale war and will fight with each other if the military movement begins. This incorrect analysis was an excuse to reduce Iran’s role in the developments in the Levant, rather than being caused by the intelligence aristocracy or the assurance of the domestic front. Previously, at the request of Arab countries, Assad had asked many of Iran’s old commanders to end their mission in this country.
The change in Assad’s literature and his inattention to Iran’s warnings signaled the deceptive promises of other active actors in Syria. In order to solve severe economic problems and rebuild the damage caused by the civil war, the Syrian regime had decided to gradually distance itself from Iran and move toward the United States and conservative Sunni countries. Apparently, in the early days of the terrorist movement towards Aleppo province, some countries promised to help the Assad regime, but none of them were fulfilled until December 8th.
According to the Reuters news agency, the Emiratis, by mediating between Damascus and Washington, promised Bashar Assad that if he distanced himself from Iran and the axis of resistance, Caesar’s sanctions would be lifted on the 20th. December is no longer extended and Damascus can freely host “oil dollars” and economic projects. This empty promise not only did not come true, but it was a mirage that ultimately led to the downfall of “Mr. Doctor”!
Last curtain; You have no right to be wrong in the Middle East
With the start of the movement of the terrorists’ war machine from the fourth de-escalation area, i.e. Idlib, the Islamic Republic of Iran has contacted Bashar al-Assad at high levels this time and He talks about Tehran’s readiness to fully support Damascus. In response to Iran’s generous offer, Assad openly says that he has no control over the front of the battle with the armed opposition and leaves the decision on the entry of Iranian armed forces into the Syrian war to Tehran! In other words, instead of sending an official request for help from the Iranian authorities, the legitimate president of Syria decides to consider the significant proposals from new friends. The passage of time has shown that this decision is wrong and politicians in the Middle East have no right to be wrong!
Despite the “head up answer” of the president of Syria at the time, but Iran’s armed forces were in a “be ready” state and were supposed to receive the “green light” “Move from Damascus towards the battle fronts. In the last few hours, Assad was contacted and (perhaps) for the last time, Iran’s full readiness to enter the Levant and change the equation in favor of Damascus was discussed. In the end, the unpreparedness of Bashar al-Assad, the poor performance of the army and widespread public dissatisfaction led to the fact that, despite the “chance of success”, the Iranian authorities, after hours of consultation and thinking about the developments in Syria, came to the conclusion that this time the conditions for Iran’s military aid to Bashar Assad is not available!
Result
With the (temporary) withdrawal of Syria from the axis of resistance, the connection between the different sides of this front has faced some ifs and ifs. This issue is raised more and more especially regarding the channel of arms transfer to Hezbollah mujahids. The speed of the current developments in the region and the coordination between America, Israel and the conservative Sunni countries show years of planning to change the geopolitics of northern Gaza and change the “balance of power” in favor of the Hebrew-Arab-Western axis. However, the “game” is not over yet! The ups and downs history of Islam has this message for the Mujahideen of the resistance axis that if the believers learn from the events of “Ehud”, they will have the conquest of “Khybers” ahead of them.
