What was the story of Imam Khamenei’s warning to Bashar al-Assad?

According to Webangah News, citing the media group of Tasnim News Agency, Mostafa Nasri wrote in a note: “Yesterday, the government of Bashar al-Assad fell after years of internal conflict and regional tensions, and this incident will have deep and immediate effects on the political structure of Syria and the Middle East. This fall not only led to the dominance of terrorist groups over large parts of the country but also created conditions for foreign actors, including Israel, to quickly exploit the situation and occupy parts of Syrian territory by sending military equipment. However, beyond these repercussions, it is essential to examine the reasons for the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government. Weakness in implementing internal reforms, ignoring internal threats from opposing groups, over-reliance on the promises of regional countries regarding the guarantee of Syria’s stability and sovereignty, and most importantly, the intertwining interests of Turkey, Israel, and the USA in Syria were among the factors leading to this collapse.”

Lack of Structural, Economic, and Infrastructural Reforms

One of the key factors in the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government was the failure to implement necessary reforms that could have garnered public satisfaction and reduced popular discontent. Over recent years, the economic situation in Syria has severely weakened, and the country’s basic infrastructure has been devastated due to war, sanctions, and mismanagement. This situation not only increased economic pressure on the people but also led a significant portion of citizens to lose hope in the regime’s survival. When the government fell, the lack of serious resistance from the army against the terrorists and the public celebrations that occurred in some areas indicated the depth of this discontent. The people of Syria, who had suffered from years of war, unemployment, and corruption, viewed this collapse as an opportunity to change the existing situation.

Ignoring Opposing Groups

Bashar al-Assad’s government, especially in the final years of its rule, failed to properly address the threats posed by opposing groups. While some of these groups had controlled parts of Syrian territory for years, the Assad government had no clear strategy for engaging or confronting them, either diplomatically or militarily. Naturally, this state of uncertainty created a favorable environment for the nurturing and growth of the human and logistical capabilities of the Syrian opposition groups. These groups were left to their own devices to gradually gain power and ultimately play a role in the government’s fall. The chaos that occurred in the final days of the government was a direct result of this inaction. The temporary alliance among opposing groups, though seemingly contradictory in strategic objectives, enabled them to quickly seize Syrian territory.

Disregarding Warnings from Iran and Reliance on Promises from Some Regional Countries

One of the strategic mistakes of Bashar al-Assad’s government was distancing itself from its traditional allies, especially Iran, and over-relying on the promises of Arab countries. This issue was particularly highlighted during Bashar al-Assad’s meeting with the Leader of the Revolution in June of this year. In this meeting, he warned the Syrian President: “The Westerners and their followers in the region intended to topple the political system of this country with the war they waged against Syria and to exclude Syria from regional equations, but they failed. Now, they also aim to remove Syria from regional equations through other methods, including promises they will never fulfill.” Despite this warning, the warm behavior of Arab countries at the Arab League summit and supportive statements regarding the sovereignty of Syria had deluded Bashar al-Assad into believing in his survival more than reality warranted, which also led him to not request help from Iran to confront the insurgents during the recent 10-day crisis and to concede the field.

Coalition of Foreign Actors Against Bashar al-Assad

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government was not only the result of internal weaknesses and mismanagement but was also influenced by foreign actors and geopolitical changes in the region. Perhaps the most important reason for the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government was the broad coalition formed among foreign actors to remove him. From the USA and Israel to Turkey and the Gulf Arab countries, all had common interests in the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the weakening of the resistance front. Israel has long had enmity with the Syrian regime as one of the cornerstones of the resistance axis.

In the initial moments of the government’s fall, the entry of Israeli tanks into Syrian territory showed that this regime was ready to exploit the situation immediately. The insult to the Palestinian flag by terrorists was also a sign of Israel’s direct role in this operation. On the other hand, Turkey, as one of the main regional actors, intensified its aggressive policies against Bashar al-Assad. By supporting opposing groups, Turkey sought to increase its influence in northern Syria and achieve its strategic objectives. The presence of the Turkish flag in the terrorists’ trenches and the coordination of the Takfiri operations demonstrate Ankara’s direct role in the fall of the Syrian government; a support that was certainly not hidden, and its peak display was the tweet of the Turkish President’s daughter, who wrote: “Assad has fallen, and Erdogan has triumphed.”

Reduced Role of Russia Due to the Ukraine Crisis

Another key factor was Russia’s lack of decisive intervention in support of Bashar al-Assad. Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, Russia’s military and economic capacity has come under significant pressure, and this country has set new priorities in its foreign policy. Russia, which had previously been one of the main supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, could not play a more active role in Syrian developments due to its focus on the Ukraine war and international sanctions. Even after the fall of the Damascus government, Moscow announced that it did not intend to intervene in the internal affairs of Syrian opposition groups. This stance reflects the reduced strategic importance of Syria in Russia’s foreign policy.

Iran Does Not Act Against the Will of the People

In the recent developments in Syria, Iran decided not to intervene directly; a decision made based on strategic assessments and the sensitive regional conditions. Over the past year, global attention has focused on the issue of Palestine and Israel, making this a central point in regional developments. In such circumstances, Iran’s entry into the internal conflicts of Syria could have created a rift in the Islamic world, diverted attention from the Palestinian issue, and provided an opportunity for enemies to exploit.

Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, Iran has played a key role in preventing the fall of the legitimate government of that country, in accordance with the official request of Damascus. However, in recent developments, the lack of internal cohesion in Syria and the Assad government’s over-reliance on the promises of foreign actors weakened the motivation and ability to resist. In such conditions, direct Iranian intervention without the cooperation of the Syrian government would have been fruitless. When the Syrian government ignored Iran’s warnings and instead of paying attention to social issues and internal legitimacy, relied on foreign promises, Iran could no longer single-handedly prevent the fall of this government. Foreign support is effective only when there is internal will and cohesion.

Source: Vatan-e Emruz Newspaper