the day after the war; Who is the future ruler of Gaza?
Mehr News, International Group: to sound The ceasefire call in Gaza has caused speculations about the future of the Gaza administration to increase. Previously, there were three main views in this regard. The first view was related to the Zionists who were following the strategy of “neither Fatah nor Hamas” and were looking for the complete annexation or division of the Gaza Strip through the implementation of the “Generals” plan. In this plan, the Americans sought to eliminate the resistance in Gaza and turn this strip into an economic zone based on the “Deal of the Century” plan.
The second plan was dedicated to the European Union and supported the replacement of the self-governing organization instead of Hamas while maintaining the international borders. This plan was supported by Paris and Riyadh. Finally, the plan of the Americans is visible, according to which the self-governing organizations were supposed to replace Hamas and take control of administrative and security affairs with the cooperation of international forces along with a part of the civil forces of Gaza. Despite some speculations about the future of Gaza, but so far American sources claim that the plan of the Biden government currently has a better chance of being implemented in Gaza.
Blinken’s presentation of America’s plan
On January 14, 2025, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expressed his views on the current developments in the West Asian region at the Atlantic Council. In particular, the Gaza war and the future of this Palestinian faction. He claimed that the reformed self-governing organization along with the selected people in the Gaza strip with the cooperation of the international forces will take over the administration of civil affairs such as providing public needs, rebuilding the health network, education, water, etc. Also, the forces of the self-governing organization are supposed to take control of the security affairs in this area in cooperation with the Israeli army and international forces. In this speech, he claimed that America and Israel will no longer allow Hamas to rule over the affairs of this Palestinian faction after the Al-Aqsa Storm operation.
Mohammed Dahlan and the dream of “Neither Fatah nor Hamas”
Before the failure of the plan to create a temporary dock to send humanitarian aid to Gaza, Mohammad Dahlan was one of the main options for the administration of Gaza; But today it seems less likely. This security figure close to the self-governing organizations, UAE and Egypt was blacklisted in Turkey for some time due to his close relations with the conservative Sunni bloc and at the same time Mossad. During the last few months, the reputation of the media close to the UAE and Western allies for Mohammad Dahlan has strengthened the rumor that Washington-London may agree to hand over the administration of Gaza to this security figure in a joint plan.
Dahlan, of course, in an interview with the Economist, refused to accept the proposal of the Gaza administration and claimed that the future government of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip should be in the hands of a technocrat government; A government in which people from Hamas and Fatah are also present. According to the New York Times, in this plan, after the technocrat government takes over Gaza, the Saudi-Emirati security forces will monitor the process of rebuilding the barricade.
The other option is Hossein al-Sheikh, who is currently the Secretary General of the PLO Executive Committee. He, who was one of the founding members of the political committees of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip after the Oslo peace (1993), now with the support of Riyadh, hopes to steal the lead from other competitors and take over the administration of Gaza. Like other figures in the self-governing organization, while criticizing the October 7 operation, he believes in cooperating with the Zionist regime to reduce the pain and suffering of the Palestinian nation! According to Al Jazeera report, Hamas did not find his criticisms surprising in response to al-Sheikh and identified him as a person affiliated with Israel.
Who is the “Nelson Mandela” of Palestine?
Among the proposed candidates, one person’s name is heard more than other options, and that is Marwan Barghouthi. According to some reliable news sources, apparently, Hamas insisted on Barghouti’s name among the prisoners released from the prison of the Zionist regime. Rumors about Barghouthi’s release and placement as the head of the self-governing organization or Gaza intensified when, in early February, the Hamas movement demanded the release of all prisoners in Palestinian prisons, especially security convicts, in the prisoner exchange negotiations with Israel in exchange for the release of Zionist prisoners. Marwan Barghouthi was one of the prominent leaders of the first and second Palestinian intifadas, who was sentenced to life imprisonment in 2004 on charges of murder.
At that time, Barghouthi emphasized the option of continuing armed resistance against the Zionists. He was one of the key figures in the process of signing the agreement between the members of Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, in which he called for the formation of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.
During the survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, while 90% of the participants demanded the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas from the position of the head of the Palestinian Authority. Barghouthi was chosen as the most popular Palestinian leader. Perhaps for this reason, Netanyahu and the right-wing members of his cabinet are not interested in his release. Some analysts believe that Tel Aviv wants to separate the West Bank and the Gaza Strip at any cost and is not interested in the unification of these two regions under the shadow of a popular person like Marwan Barghouthi.
Bahre Sakhan
Assuming that the self-governing organizations return to the Gaza Strip, it seems that the scenario of their expulsion from this strip is not far from expected. In 2004, when the Zionist army withdrew from the Palestinian territories and handed over the control of its affairs to the self-governing forces, the Hamas movement and Islamic Jihad needed only 3 years to win the elections through a democratic process and control the affairs. Take over Gaza. According to polls conducted among the people of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Hamas group and its leaders are very popular among the Palestinian people. Based on this, it seems that the Zionist regime is faced with two bad options when dealing with the future of Gaza.
Firstly, accepting the popularity and role of Hamas in the future of the administration of Gaza and secondly returning to this line and giving in to severe human-financial damages that can exacerbate the gap between The army and the cabinet of the Zionist regime. Considering the rapid reconstruction of the military branches of Hamas in the middle of the war with the Zionist regime, it seems that this process will be followed more quickly during the ceasefire period and the Zionist army will officially face the new military force. The developments of the coming weeks and months will show which of the actors will finally take over the administration of affairs in the war-torn Gaza.
