Trump and the future waiting for the export of agricultural products

report Mehr Reporter , what will be the business of agricultural and food products after the new US government came to power. Hossein Shirzad, an agricultural analyst, wrote for Mehr, by changing the prospect of world trade under Agro Trumpism, US agricultural exporters may need to re -evaluate the risk portfolio and implement their strategies. >

Delay of Agricultural Export Strategies / Span>

This can include excavation in new technologies, more flexible logistics, supply chain insurance, new markets, diversity Giving products or investing in value added processing to compete in changing world markets, developing special markets for special products, investing in processing and packaging capabilities to add value and creating strategic participation with importers in emerging markets. Span>

This strategic change, raising prices of equipment, fuel, fertilizers and chemicals increase production costs for farmers . The volume of world trade is expected to be reduced. The International Cereal Council (IGC) estimates the cereal trade for the years 1 and 2, which is less than 2 million tonnes in years 1-5. Given that climate change is another source of uncertainty, with severe climate events that affect the major areas of production; Europe will experience heavy rainfall, while the Black Sea region will face drought. Of course, by understanding that El Nino has exacerbated the situation.

Lannana’s poor conditions for Year 2, delay in Brazil and dry conditions in Argentina and regions. The southern United States are the potential impacts that are expected to provide a clearer insight into Lannana’s effects between March. Fortunately, Trump’s attitude to climate change is well known and not what he has been silent about, but what will it mean for American and world agriculture?

seems to be the main answer and the problem is here. When we face climate change, flooding and global warming effects, food security is a vital issue in the world. According to the Harris investment agenda, an unprecedented amount of money was invested in NRCS (Natural Resources Conservation Service) to develop smart climatic agriculture. The program focused on increasing farmers’ access to the protection budget, improving crop nutrient management and creating new partnerships between farm owners and environmental experts.

It was planned to create more food security for the United States in the future, an attempt that seems unlikely In the Trump administration, have a constant focus and support. A study by the European Central Bank and the Putsam Climate Research Institute shows that the global food inflation rate may increase by up to 4.9 percent in the next decade due to higher temperatures.

Now, with the intensification of climate change, the agricultural sector is increasingly damaged by intense weather. It can in turn undermine the security and economic stability of the world. Trump ordered the United States to withdraw from the Paris World Climate Agreement, and the World Food Program for the World Hunger and Food Safety Program be reviewed by an annual budget of more than $ 1 billion. The United States is not only the world’s largest foreign aid – last year it spent $ 1.5 billion – it also offers the most food aid based on political purposes, while food security and global nutrition have long received bilateral support. The Republicans have formed the majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the new Congress, and are definitely more consistent with Trump’s agenda, a gift to Trump to do whatever he wants to do. Has.

Trump continues its supportive model of deregulation in American agriculture. Moving towards saline, minimal surveillance, deregulation, both negative environmental effects, and reduces the ability of smaller farms to compete with larger producers.

agricultural monopolies are currently increasing, with only three companies 5 % of milk sales and milk sales They have dairy. High levels of integrity make food prices beyond the rate that otherwise competitively in the market, which will have inevitable consequences for consumers and international markets. Monopoly power increases prices at risk.

Trump immigration policies new challenge for agriculture

According to the Cornell University report, more than 2 % of farm workers are currently in The US agricultural industry lacks identity or technical degrees. So, what will the issue of firing immigrant workers for the US agricultural industry under Trump’s attitude?

there are two elements to consider; Impact on farms and farmers and the possibility of creating higher -wage jobs for American workers, the impact of Trump’s immigration policies on the agricultural fields and industry in general can be catastrophic

If America takes half of its farm workers’ population in a short period of time, no opportunity to retrieve and transfer skills from Hands, the agricultural sector will have a serious problem. On the one hand, about one -third of the US agricultural workers are born foreign. Immigration restrictions can exacerbate the lack of skills in agriculture or in the technology and semiconductor production sector.

a future that must be carefully monitored

drought in corn belt, low price of crops, composite Soilland from Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and away China’s long -standing dependence on US corn and soybeans has brought many American farmers to their knees. According to the US Department of Agriculture’s census data, the number of farms decreased by 4,000 farms between the ages of 1 and 2; But most US agricultural states voted for Trump at an average of 4.9 percent. However, does the Trump administration really help or prevent it? This is a question that not only affects the US economy, but it also has global impact on food security and business relationships. Span>

Many farmers believe that Trump will eventually support them. Although his earlier tariffs spent about $ 2 billion in US agriculture in years 1 and 2, Trump reportedly gave farmers unprecedented aid worth $ 5 billion as direct agricultural aid to deal with these effects. If Trump begins his trade war again next year, some observers believe that similar efforts may be coming again.

Finally, Trump’s return to agricultural trade partners outside the United States will definitely have profound negative effects It was. The impact of public tariffs on China and targeted tariffs on parts of the value chain reduces US agricultural trade partners and allies, leading to reduced competitiveness, production, inefficiency of global supply chains and loss of knowledge transfer, logistics innovations and high financial costs. It will be provided in the chain. Future events should be more carefully monitored and took advantage of opportunities.