Trump’s policies between economic crises and geopolitical risks
Mehr News Agency, International : Iraqi political analyst and political activist Najah Mohammad Ali, a dedicated note entitled “Trump’s Policies between Economic Crisis and Geopolitical Risks” for the International Group
1. Tariff shock: Widespread decisions and consequences
Executive Details:
Implementation Method: Tariffs were suddenly implemented without prior warning, with limited compensation for US affected US companies
Most damaged sections: Electronics ($ 2 billion), car ($ 2 billion), consumer goods ($ 1 billion)
International Reactions: China and the European Union filed a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization
deeper analysis of works:
Banking Impacts: Loss of 1 Bank of America in a week, equivalent to $ 5 billion
Global Transportation Movement: Reduction of 5 % in container transportation through the Pacific Ocean
Supply Chains: Disorder 2 % of multinationals’ supply chains
1. Strategic Strategic Dile
additional information on industrial reproduction:
5 % of US companies decide to maintain their operations in Asia, despite pressure
Only 5 % of companies have begun to transfer partially to the US
expected costs for transfer: $ 1-5 billion for the private sector
Extensive energy crisis:
closure of 5 % of the oil wells because of the economical being unexpected
Losses of the US Energy Sector: $ 1 billion in the first quarter ۱۳۹۵
Effects of Employment: Losing 6,000 direct jobs in the energy sector
1. Iran’s case analyzed
Widespread Military Analysis:
Focus on US forces: Increasing the troops to 6,000 in the Persian Gulf
Iran Capabilities: Deployment of 1,800 ballistic missiles on the beaches
Hormuz’s closing scenarios: US simulation that predicts $ 5 billion daily losses.
Bab al -Mandeb’s closure scenarios: Threat of energy supply, because Bab al -Mandeb is the main route of oil transfer from countries to Europe and the United States. Any disorder in this area can affect global oil prices.
New regional alliances
Iran-Rossie Joint Defense Agreement (February 1)
China-Iranian Marine Mansters with Russian Partnership “Sea Security Belt” in Chabahar Port (March 1)
Increase Iraq-Iran trade exchanges by 5 %
1. Yemeni disaster analyzed
Military failure indicators
Percentage of Yemen’s Armed Forces Control: Out of 2 % 2 % in 1
Coalition Losses: ۱۳۹۴ Donkeys have been overthrown since January.
Yemen’s success in defeating American domination in the Red Sea and creating a defense line for Palestinian resistance
Economic reflections
cost of Saudi operations during rape: $ 1.5 billion in monthly
damage to the Saudi oil sector: Reduction of 2 % Production
Impact on Aramco: Market Value 2 %
These damages may double if the US aggression continues and Trump decides to attack Iran.
1. Widespread internal crisis
Political gap
5 % of Republican Party members publicly oppose Trump’s policies
Provide; laws to limit the President’s business authority
Internal economic status
Annual inflation rate: 1.5 % (the highest level of year 2)
General Debt: More than $ 5 trillion
Credit Rankings: Reducing US Rank to AA۲ by Modiz
1. Reinforced geopolitical changes
New alliances
China-European trade agreement (which covers 2 % of the global economy)
Russian-Iran-Hand Energy Alliance (which meets 5 % of global energy needs)
Alternative payment system (accepted by 4 countries for off -SWIFT systems)
reinforced recommendations for relevant countries
for Iran and Iraq
Investment in Internal Technologies: Development of Replacement Industries 2 % over a period of 5 years
Economic integration: Increasing trade exchanges to $ 5 billion annually
Security Cooperation: Creating a joint deterrent with one hundred and one thousand soldiers
for regional countries
Alternative Monetary Fund: Creating a regional financial system of $ 5 billion
Joint maneuvers: holding 2 joint military maneuvers per year
Joint Infrastructure: Completion of 2 Big Energy and Transport Projects
valid reinforced sources
IMF reports (April 1)
Round Center Studies for Research
Documents Documents Declared by the US National Security Council
US Treasury Official Data
Strategic Analysis
Information shows that Trump’s policies are leading to a complete storm, namely:
1. Antily Stack (-5 % Growth at 1)
1. Unprecedented geopolitical isolation
1. Internal Social Crisis
1. Reduce soft military strength
vs, competing countries of witnesses
China’s economic growth of 4.9 percent
Increase Russian influence in 5 new countries
Improved Iran’s economy by 4.9 %
Ascension of alternative currencies (yuan 2 % of global reserves)
