Global changes a factor influencing future negotiations on Ukraine conflict
The Ukraine Conflict Is No Longer Just About Ukraine; It’s a War Over the Future Global Order. The Choices Being Made Now Will Determine Whether the Outcome Is a Realignment or Long-term Collapse.
Mehr News Agency, International Desk: Ukrainian thinker Andriy Buzarov has sent an exclusive article titled “Global Shifts as a Decisive factor in future Negotiations to End the Ukraine Conflict” to mehr News Agency’s International Desk. The full text follows:
two centuries ago, Carl von Clausewitz stated: “War is the continuation of politics by other means.” Since then, much has changed in the world. Today, the political behavior of global actors is itself a continuation of war—a war waged through modern-era tools in the realm of ideas, economic competition, and cyberspace.
The profound shift of global economies toward the Fourth Industrial Revolution, dominated by advanced computing technologies and new energy systems, has disrupted customary power poles across demographics and finance. global South economies are growing at an accelerating pace, while former world leaders—now mired in crisis—refuse to relinquish their positions.
If we align this technological transition timeline with major military conflicts, we see they occur almost simultaneously. During such periods,economies face critical recessions—and our era is no exception. The world stands on the brink of a global economic crisis, and key players sense it. To survive, they seek market expansion and geopolitical influence—a pattern unchanged since humanity’s earliest transitions from forests to plains and primitive agriculture.
This trend is especially evident in societies with imperial legacies:
- China through its Belt & Road Initiative
- Turkey expanding into the Middle East
- america via tariff wars
- Russia building its sphere of influence
Their scramble for resources ahead of hard times defines their interests, political tools—and clashes.
The New Great Game
Trump pursued “Great America” by claiming Greenland & Panama Canal rights while launching tariff wars against China + half the world—pressuring Europe for human/tech resources extraction.
Britain intervenes in Ukraine/Middle East seeking dominance over Eastern Europe; Israel expands into neighboring lands; Russia builds its “security buffer zone”; EU counters Russian territorial/economic expansion.
These factors turn Ukraine negotiations into an equation with countless variables today: Russia/US aren’t negotiating Ukraine’s future but debating the structure of a new world order. Key players include:
1) Europe: In deep crisis using Ukraine as leverage vs Russia + Trump’s “Great America”.
2) China: Anticipating US market losses pivots toward Europe (unacceptable to Washington).
3) Britain: Seeks Baltic-Poland-Romania influence via Intermarium project.
Core Interests:
1) United States
New US doctrines declare “China, not Russia,” as top threat; Trump shifts focus toward Indo-Pacific (Europe deprioritized).
2) Russia
Aims preventing Eastern Europe becoming Western military/economic containment bases seeks equal global power status requiring neutrality/control over Eastern Europe today Caucasus/central Asia tomorrow sanctions lifted for growth stability.
3) China
Preparing post-US conflict logistics Eurasian-wide exploiting EU energy shortages industrial decline acquiring tech replacing US investments expanding africa presence.
4) European Union
With fading US security guarantees EU seeks new stability tools Hungary/Slovakia defying Brussels fuels fears UK meddling destabilizes policies.
Human Factors Influencing Conflict:
1) Trump needs tangible pre-election wins.
2) Kremlin wants conflict end via new security framework.
3) Zelensky regime heavily reliant on European/British partners.
Three Likely Scenarios for Ukraine:
1️⃣ U.S Forces European Compromise
Washington pressures EU/UK drop support Zelensky signs peace recognizing annexations hurdle Moscow may demand elections delegitimizing him
2️⃣ U.S Prioritizes Deal With Russia Over Kyiv
strategic pact announced sanctions eased aid cut Ukrainian forces collapse without western arms lose more land face harsher terms
3️⃣ U.S Retreats – Europe Fights On
Talks stall continued EU/UK backing but weapons shortages manpower depletion merely delay Scenario #2 worst outcome catastrophic losses infrastructure destruction western regions potentially voting join Poland/Romania
Hidden Risk Of Scenario #3:
Prolonged defeats could push Ukrainian officials/military toward destabilizing acts like reselling Western arms terrorists/criminals (reported analysts/intel agencies). Interpol chief Jürgen stock warns black-market proliferation even SBU confirmed colonel sold US missiles Russians media reports weapons surfacing Turkey Syria etc escalating global terror threats conflict zones casualties
Conclusion:
Most likely now? Scenario #1 despite White House rhetoric talks continue least damaging path failed negotiations would inflame tensions across Europe middle East South Caucasus international community must prevent Scenario #3 second-most probable
Ukraine’s conflict no longer just about borders it’s shaping tomorrow’s world order choices today decide between negotiated realignment or protracted collapse with worldwide fallout
