How Will Qatar Respond to Israel? Analysis by 7 Regional Experts
Mehr news Agency, International Desk, Elnaz Rahmatnejad: On Tuesday, September 8, 2023, Israel targeted a meeting of Hamas’s negotiation team in central Doha, Qatar’s capital, with an airstrike-an event that drew intense regional and global media attention. The attack took place as Washington awaited Hamas’s response to a new “peace proposal” from former US President Donald Trump aimed at Gaza.
According to numerous Western media outlets, the strike dealt a devastating blow to efforts seeking an agreement to end Israel’s war on Gaza.
The Israeli airstrike on Qatar also underscored another reality: no country in the region is safe-even if it is considered a close ally of Washington. qatar became the seventh country bombed by israel since October 7, 2023.
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s prime Minister and Foreign Minister, spoke to CNN last night with unexpected candor. Expressing deep anger at Israel’s attacks, he labeled them “state terrorism” and warned that “a response from the region is coming.”
To assess Qatar’s potential regional reaction to Israeli aggression, Mehr reporter interviewed seven experts: Seyyed Abbas Mousavi-the representative of Iraq’s Najafa Movement Secretary-General in Iran; Ahmed Al-Shami-a journalist and analyst for Yemen’s Al-Masirah network; Mohammad Meshik-international law expert; Bathina Aliqaf-radio journalist for al-Noor and writer for Al-Mayadeen; Ali Fazlollah; Kian Al-Asadi; and Mohammad Bayat. Their detailed comments follow:
Qatar Unlikely to Take Practical Action
Seyyed Abbas Mousavi stated: Due to US dominance over Qatar’s government, no practical response will come from Doha. Statements are merely political gestures meant to maintain appearances.
He added that these statements serve only political and media purposes-to convey that they will not remain silent but will respond strongly.
mousavi continued: “How can a country hosting America’s largest military base in the Middle East-the Al Udeid Air Base-and considering Israel as an allied military unit realistically mount any operational military retaliation against Israel?”
Qatar’s Reaction Falls Short of Expectations
Ahmed Al-Shami commented: Unluckily, Qatar remains firmly under US control with its security and military apparatus effectively managed by America. Therefore we do not expect any reaction from Qatar regarding Israeli aggression.
He emphasized that for true change, Qatar must begin expelling American bases from its soil and pursue genuine independence rather than collaborating in collective crimes-as it did when allowing (with US consent) Israel’s attack on Doha itself-lest it suffers harm from those it relies upon for protection.
No Arab Weapon Can Be Used Without US Approval
Mohammad Meshik, analyzing possible Qatari responses said: While economically prosperous, there is a significant gap militarily between Qatar and hostile Israel. Thus unilateral military action by Doha seems unlikely. Instead they have opted for consultations with regional countries aimed at broad international pressure especially locally.
Moshik enumerated five reasons why he rejects any Qatari military option:
1) Gulf states have normalized relations with enemy Israel.
2) American bases operate openly across Gulf states under whose aegis Israeli aircraft fly.
3) The recent attack proved Western weapons possessed by Arab states cannot be employed without explicit American permission-inclusive of air defense systems and fighter jets.
4) Despite ongoing genocide in Gaza plus multiple attacks against Arab countries by Israel recently – Arabs have taken no measures.
5) Each Gulf state pursues distinct interests tempered by strong American influence-all impediments militating against risk-taking militarily given stark technological imbalance versus Zionists.”
Moshik clarified that politically or legally peaceful responses could include pushing national positions or urging Security Council resolutions (unless vetoed), but active conflict involvement appears unlikely so far.”
Washington Pressure Restricts Reaction Capacity
Bathina Aliqaf suggested hope lies in collective coordinated reactions involving all Arab countries along with key regional actors such as Turkey or Iran-but acknowledged this scenario remains improbable due primarily to external interference:
“One should never underestimate America’s power over Doha as well as GCC states or other Arab countries-which can inhibit any meaningful steps entirely.”
The Response Will Not Be Solely Qatari
Kian al-Asadi saw clear indications Early reactive moves would engage wider Gulf Cooperation Council solidarity frameworks based on their charter emphasizing unity facing incursions-but stressed realistic constraints prioritized diplomacy:
“Political realities show all GCC decisions fall under America’s protective umbrella making any resorting to armed retaliation virtually impractical.”
Al – Asadi outlined leverage tools available including disrupting normalization processes,reconsidering regional commitments,and direct diplomatic pressure via Washington targeting humanitarian aid flow or crossings toward Palestine.
Ultimately questioned whether Quran sticks only rhetorical warnings or converts words into tangible support materially impacting political/humanitarian fronts:
“Coming days will reveal how serious Doha truly is about confronting blatant violations .An emerging marker shall be waning trust even marginally towards Washington after majority comes realize U.S backing serves particularist rather than broader interest preventing silent acceptance ongoing intolerable breaches.”
The Deterrence Against Qatar Has Been Breached “
Mohammad Bayat remarked : “the initial strike within twelve day war targeting Iran was Iranian air assault hitting United States’ ‘Al Udeid Air Base ‘in this nation.And now renewed strike came Tuesday courtesy zionist regime attacking Hamas leaders convened inside Dohah.Given these facts,qatar feels deterrence credibility has been severely compromised necessitating recompense one way or another.”
He noted possible visual retribution executed principally through aerial strikes confined offensively solely within southern occupied territories intended essentially signaling preservation of dignity.Moreover,multilateral cooperation contingent upon diverse dynamics.Enforcing strict partnerships resembling Saudi Arabia,UAE participation questionable likewise Iranian inclusion improbable alone despite potential single operations initiated exclusively by Doha…”
Qatar Incapable of Meaningful Retaliation Against Israel “
Ali Fazlollah concluded :‘ The joint Israeli-american operation crossing critical red lines shattered assurances,promises once proffered thwart external assaults.Washington Post just one month prior documented Trump Governance assurance quashing threat perception yet guarantees failed lasting beyond thirty days.No substitute existed except recurrent American duplicity lessons implore rejection reliance faulty pledges.’
[ ]
” dubbed ’state terrorism’, major hit undermined American security guarantees protecting existing Gulf regimes instilling acute fear among emirates Saudis Egyptians Turks alike emphasizing precarious situation.”
He cited official pointed statements emanating Qatari foreign ministry condemning encroachment echoed mainly formal press releases lacking substantive retort corresponding overall lack strategic capability counteractions Israelis Americans confidently anticipating zero efficacious reply manifested even until now through interviews acknowledging Trump’s promises aim preventing repeat attacks.
“Hence foreseeable outcome absence retaliation mandatory yet current reality demands unified front against aggressors forged among host region governments altering prevailing mindset prioritizing stability alone underpinning regime survival finally perhaps galvanizing Paerticipatory future signal,” ali fazllah concluded.
.
