Escalating Political Conflict in Armenia and Its Impact on Iran’s National Interests
Guest Commentary by Dr. Ehsan Moheddian: with about eight months remaining until Armenia’s parliamentary elections, which will determine the country’s next prime minister, political tensions in this key neighbor of Iran have intensified.
The outcome of Armenia’s elections is particularly significant for Iran because, due to its historically amiable relations with Tehran, Armenia has served as a crucial transit and communication hub linking Iran to the outside world.Former U.S. President Donald trump’s efforts to establish a transit route through Armenian territory adjacent to Iran-dubbed the ”Trump Corridor”-have heightened concerns over Tehran’s growing geopolitical constraints in the Caucasus.
Previously, Baku attempted to violate Armenian territorial sovereignty by occupying southern regions of Armenia-especially Syunik Province-and aimed to create a fabricated Zangezur corridor with support from Turkey, Israel, and Great Britain. Although the Trump Corridor project claims it will respect Armenian sovereignty, there remain serious doubts about Washington’s true intentions behind it.
However, before next year’s parliamentary vote in Armenia, it seems unlikely that Washington or Ankara and Baku would take bold actions destabilizing Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan currently supports peace initiatives with Turkey and Azerbaijan as well as backing the creation of the Trump Corridor. Any fresh border conflict or escalated operations designed to provoke Iran under these conditions would politically undermine Pashinyan domestically. Therefore, no major military clashes are expected in the Caucasus before spring 2025. Yet if Pashinyan loses power after elections and fails to secure another term as prime minister, both Turkey and Azerbaijan may swiftly move to occupy Syunik and enforce their fabricated Zangezur corridor.
Pashinyan vs His Opponents: What Are their Arguments?
the opposition forces in Armenia are not opposed to peace per se but reject current government strategies for rapprochement with Ankara and Baku. They argue that excessive concessions granted under these policies-including permitting increased economic, cultural-political influence and also manipulations impacting Armenian identity-pose existential threats for their country.
The opposition parties accuse Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev-despite drafting a peace treaty-with still using language like “corridor,” refusing direct engagement with Armenian border guards; supporting demographic engineering through repopulating Armenians’ former territories; labeling parts of southern Armenia (Syunik) as “Western Azerbaijan”; denying release of Armenian war prisoners from Nagorno-karabakh conflicts; all while making overt territorial claims on sovereign lands pronouncing them Azerbaijani soil.
In such circumstances expecting reliable energy supplies or economic support from Baku or Ankara is overly optimistic as they could exploit any future dependency by undermining Armenia’s independence.
An additional catalyst deepening domestic discord has been Prime Minister Pashinyan’s increasingly harsh stance toward his political opponents across religious-economic axes.
his governance has arrested manny key political activists influential economically or holding significant offices within church leadership structures.
Opponents claim this crackdown serves electoral calculation-to sideline corruption allegations against himself while accusing rivals on moral grounds incompatible with church principles-thereby consolidating power ahead of elections.
Meanwhile supporters argue those accusing him exhibit pro-Russian leanings pushing regime change through hardline tactics; many face proven corruption charges themselves;
and some high-ranking members belonging historically allied ecclesiastical institutions have violated clerical norms.
Pashinyan views Akhmadzin-the headquarters enclave outside Yerevan-as central opposition religious bastion he aims legally delegitimize,
even independently conducting last Sunday’s Christian liturgy at another monastery last week but sparking controversy since officiating clergy had been defrocked by Akhmadzin authorities.
Pashinyan repeatedly warns voters that failure to choose him again risks igniting fresh war between Yerevan and Baku.
Most armenians caught between hostile neighbors wearying from previous conflicts largely endorse this cautionary stance.
He also promises continued economic stability alongside European integration prospects aimed at improving living standards-even though opposition parties reject these visions claiming Europe will never fully embrace small states like theirs,
Citing Western pressure fuelling animosity toward Russia reduces military preparedness mainly relying on Moscow,
dismissing diversification rhetoric masking latent hostility risking turning their three-million population state into “another Ukraine.”
Skeptics note recent losses including Nagorno-Karabakh fortified positions weaken defense strongly;
demanding closure attempts targeting Russian 102nd Military Base plus decreased regional Eurasian Economic Union cooperation further expose vulnerabilities while Western powers merely offer rhetorical support prioritizing energy corridors favoring baku instead over Yerevan.
This basic struggle within Armenian society is expected persist until parliamentary polls where factions who best persuade public opinion regarding rationality stand greatest chance at victory.
Who Will Win?
The election outcome depends heavily on whether opposition groups can form a broad united front capable resetting national politics around fresh credible leadership options competing effectively against incumbents known more for corruption allegations linked notably troubling prominence neglecting socio-economic progress concentrating resources among limited networks than renewed public appeal.
Pashinyan simultaneously occurring actively arrests potential organizers aligned against him dampening coordinated challenges nearly neutralizing viable competitors thus far.
The question remains whether traditional political leaders associated historically with Presidents Serzh Sargsyan & Robert Kocharyan alongside powerful business actors such as Samvel Karapetyan (currently imprisoned on financial crime accusations yet backed strongly via family patronage) manage creating genuinely supported electoral coalitions representing mass sentiments successfully prior coming months ahead election day signaling real shift possible otherwise status quo might prevail sustaining incumbent dominance without meaningful contestation enforced mainly via entrenched methods incompetent offering reform alternatives attracting broad constituency refraining from novelty generating enthusiasm inside populace characterized predominantly by apathy towards active engagement reflecting democratic processes declining participatory mood widespread nationally consistent low party popularity indicated polling data recent times begging hope propaganda campaigns stirring things up soon unfolds differently gains momentum effect later election verdict decisively altered final outcome favorable challenger camp imaginable only then change practical fairly probable indeed.’
If Prime Minister Pashinyan secures re-election continuing office he currently holds post-parliament vote,a critical stage commences activating construction developments implementing “Trump Corridor” plans integrating visibly closer politically economically geographically dragging Republic further converging European Union United States aligning strategic interests forward timeline importantly introducing emergent irreversible factors impacting Iranian diplomacy security calculations overall situation ongoing regional dynamics gradually altering balance accelerating reshaping core relations Persian gulf Central Asia space similarly inducing policy readjustments must be anticipated carefully preparing diverse contingencies sooner rather later approaching scenarios theoretical eventually becoming pragmatic realities likewise consider relevant consequences sphere vital protecting national integrity independence accordingly paramount surpass everything else riding outcomes pivotal upcoming developments beyond borders used externally influencing internal prospect broadly irrevocable substantial scale demanded tighter synchronization synergistic appraisal comprehensive truthful forecasts staying alert global trends continuously transforming habitat confronting Islamic Republic regional theaters matter pragmatic obligatory assessment timely manner inevitable course happening precisely reality facing semifinished moves previously playful talk official articulate statements actual operation framework good context tangible risks potent destabilizations emerge posing alternate safety challenges regard territory unity sovereignty endurance permitted threshold white lines remain valued inviolable must never crossed mistakenly underestimated jeopardised accident trajectory regardless desire already unfolding events fluctuating direction unless foresight exercised urgently effectively laying foundations stabilising predicting repress simulating intelligently prudent moves inevitably unleash long-term gain urgently thereafter avoiding chronic negligence accumulating damage hardest repair adequate recovery minimal feasible degrees successful consolidation equally applicable resilient strategy policy formulation required now present moment circumstance exposed utmost necessity coherent macro planning prospective patterns<dynamic modern global interconnected interaction complex ambiguous unavoidable inevitable incidence ace uncertainty constant forecasting essential nowadays regardless accessible detailed facts qualitative quantitative past baseline properly analysed comprehended forecasted staff competent officials guided planners timely remind respond agile responsive responsible able switch directions safely rapidly adapt necessary adjustments prevent unfortunate realistic setbacks delivering optimum result full advantage significance potential positive outcomes hoped thus considered wise investment rightful:
