Trump’s Path’ in Armenia: Threats Against Iran and Russia’s Concerns
Guest Commentary by Ehsan Moheddian: Last Friday, an international conference titled “crossroads of Peace and Regional connectivity” was held in Yerevan, organized by Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract Party and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. During the event, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol pashinyan elaborated on new aspects of the Trump Corridor project.
Pashinyan provided detailed explanations about how the Trump corridor will be implemented. His remarks confirm analysts’ concerns that this corridor poses serious threats to Iran’s national security. The corridor is essentially no different from the so-called Zangazur corridor; its completion would inflict irreversible security, economic, and political damages on Iran.
No Place for Iran
In his speech,Pashinyan discussed plans for executing the corridor: “The next step is to establish a joint company between Armenia and the United States with a shared management board overseeing operations. Two lease durations are under consideration for TRIPP: 49 or 99 years.”
He added: “Investments will be made there, and investors need guarantees for recovering their capital with defined profit margins. For example, if we say we lease land for five years only, no one would invest because recouping investment in five years is unrealistic.” He described these discussions as technical and financial rather than political-“There is no political component; this is purely financial: who invests how much and over what time period investments can yield returns.”
Although Pashinyan claims cooperation with America on establishing this route near Iran’s border lacks economic motives,his statements imply that land leasing to American actors for infrastructure progress along the Trump Corridor is underway.
pashinyan stressed that according to Armenian legal frameworks governing construction projects, investors receive land strictly for construction purposes aimed at profitability. However, ownership always remains with Armenia; after lease expiry property reverts back to Armenian state ownership.
This clearly points toward long-term land concession from Armenia to american parties along this route. Given America’s track record in neighboring countries around Iran, there is little doubt it will exploit this opportunity as a strategic lever against Iranian security interests. Under pretexts like protecting commercial interests onsite, Washington could deploy private security firms or even military personnel near borders.
Moreover, significant amounts of customs data and economic intelligence could possibly flow back to U.S. authorities sence Pashinyan mentioned creating a written regulatory database followed by forming an Armenian-American joint company-this data might include sensitive details concerning trade relations between Iran and Armenia.
Iran has no chance of participation in these projects or influence over infrastructure development within the Trump Corridor framework. Effectively witnessing NATO and U.S. presence become neighbors directly at its border appears certain since Pashinyan emphasized that any investor attracted must involve both Armenia and America equally.
Thus due to U.S rejection-as happened following Azerbaijan’s pressure after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war-Iran faces exclusion once more while opportunities open up primarily to Turkish companies alongside those from UAE and certain European countries; some Emirati firms may act as facilitators advancing Israeli presence along this route.
This situation threatens not only Iran economically but poses ample regional security challenges as well.
An vital point highlights UAE’s growing activity representing Israeli interests within Armenia-bilateral cooperation across economic sectors plus cultural & educational fields are rapidly expanding.
The Trump Corridor Is Essentially Identical To The Fake Zangazur Corridor
Pashinyan effectively confirmed that the Trump Corridor constitutes a narrow strip just several kilometers wide; hence technically it mirrors very closely what has been called Zangazur corridor previously.
He stated: “The plan consists of multiple phases including railways pipelines-and potentially oil & gas lines too.
As a notable example if exactly five kilometers width required for an infrastructure band then clear border demarcation must precede so builders precisely know which area they operate upon.”
The prime minister underscored constraints related to territorial clearance mean infrastructure like gas pipelines power lines could divert through alternate routes depending on technical-economic-engineering viability.”
This confirms that Trump’s path isn’t merely a roadway but encompasses broad multi-purpose corridors carrying diverse infrastructures (pipelines roads power grids). It appears armenia aims here chiefly at channeling oil & gas supplies from baku/Central Asia ultimately reducing reliance on energy imports from Russia & Iran alike.
Recommended Measures
- Accelerate completion not only of road constructions but also railways & energy pipeline developments across Aras corridor before June 22nd annually ensuring Azerbaijan remains dependent on Iranian links connecting Nakhchivan enclave;
- Energize stalled bilateral endeavors pending half-decade enabling robust sustainable economic-trade ties (e.g., Iranian refinery establishment in Syunik province installation network Iranian fuel stations inside Armenia creation free trade zone Magri vocational training centers military supply production units etc.);
- Iran should engage more intensively with China-Russia coordinating Caucasus dynamics-the key artery connecting China’s Europe-bound corridors under full Washington control contradicts Beijing ambitions simultaneously Moscow views Trump’s project (formerly Zangazur) as part US geopolitical strategy reviving Central Asia influence containment resistance axis jointly driven regionally pivoted toward shifting Caucasian geopolitics favoring Washington;
Key Kremlin concerns on multiple fronts include:
- Dwindling Russian strategic sway over South Caucasus region;
- Erosion regional sovereignty driven direct American intervention;
- US leveraging area geopolitically targeting resistance axis + Russia simultaneously;
- Affecting transit/dialog routes linking Russia-Iran-other neighbors negatively;
- Buildup united states military presence near national borders vicinity;
- NATO strategy creating buffer zones separating Iran-Russia limiting their interaction/control;
- Lining Central Asian-Caucasus states behind US without Russian/Iranian involvement emerging strong alliance;
- Iran should improve basic services improving livelihoods rural/low-population Syunik province deterring out-migration thus securing stronger foothold strategically vital region at modest cost;
- Iran must initiate serious dialogue/cooperation channels engaging candidly current Armenian management.
Pashinyan openly noted Friday priorities lie first setting borders with Baku precisely where Trump’s Route passes through – crossing close to Iranian boundary within Syunik province later triggering fresh layer ongoing border related irritation politically economically securitizing all three countries concurrently coinciding launch project implementation phase!
Summary:
the creation of Trump’s Route entails socio-political transformations endangering identity/security/economy inside Syunik province destabilizing territory diminishing Iranian-Armenian frontier integrity gradually assimilating once remote sparsely populated into Turkic sphere encircling entirely Republic itself parallel Zionist expansions seek multiply operational theaters vs Tehran/resistance currents Iraq Lebanon syria Palestine coordinated broadly throughout Caucasus-Central Asia correlating decades-long neglect Tehran manifested Azerbaijani dimension effectively losing leverage turning neighbor into quasi-Israeli proxy similarly replicates drastic shift brewing now mid-level strategic leverage fading quickly leaving minimal space counteracting potential consequences timely intervention almost unfeasible later rectifying measures feasible akin previously missed Azerbaijan context!
University professor specializing in Caucasus affairs
