Assassination of Tabatabai: Is Hezbollah’s Battle with Israel Entering a New Phase?
webangah News Agency, International desk: The assassination of Haytham Ali Tabatabai, a senior hezbollah military commander, in Beirut’s Haret Hreik neighborhood is one of the most significant and decisive security events in Lebanon’s recent years. this incident carries not only military implications but also political, regional, and international repercussions that could alter Lebanon’s deterrence dynamics. Israel’s renewed incursion into the heart of the southern suburbs-long considered Hezbollah’s most secure stronghold-signals Tel Aviv’s strategic decision to shift conflict from peripheral zones to central ones.
This highly precise attack employed guided munitions and was timed and located with tactical sensitivity. Lebanese and regional analysts have characterized it as “the start of a new phase,” where neither the 2024 ceasefire nor previous red lines hold true anymore.
Attack Planning and Message Signals shift in Conflict phase
The Sunday strike targeted a residential building in Haret Hreik using precision-guided missiles.Lebanon’s Ministry of Health reported five fatalities and 28 injuries. Lebanese security sources confirmed that Haytham Tabatabai was the primary target and was directly hit. For years, Israel regarded him as Hezbollah’s second-in-command and undisputed leader of its military wing-the architect behind the Rizwan Forces, commander during the 2006 war, and pivotal figure in expanding Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities.
A crucial element is Israel’s return to southern Beirut suburbs after months when attacks were mostly confined to southern Lebanon or Beqaa valley; Tel Aviv had previously avoided entering central Beirut areas. This direct penetration into Dahieh sends an unmistakable message: Israel no longer respects former boundaries but aims to reposition battlefield focus onto Hezbollah’s core stronghold. This trend follows multiple targeted assassinations over recent years-from Fouad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil to attempts on Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah-demonstrating Tel Aviv pursues a structured plan to disrupt resistance leadership hierarchies.
The False Ceasefire and Israeli Exploitation Post-2024 War
The ceasefire established post-2024 war has never been genuine; Israel routinely violated it through drone assaults, artillery strikes, and limited incursions-all at intensity levels below wide media exposure. However, details emerging about Sunday’s operation reveal that Israel used this so-called “ceasefire” period for two strategic objectives:
1. Precisely identifying resistance commanders’ locations.
2. Lowering command security by fostering a false sense of calm.
In effect, for Israel this ceasefire served as an intelligence-gathering window rather than a time for peace; Tabatabai’s assassination is a direct result of this strategy.
Regional analysts stress that such accurate operations would be near-impossible without US coordination-the United States has controlled communication channels recently directed towards maintaining ceasefire adherence between Lebanon and Israel while simultaneously exerting multilayered pressure on Hezbollah politically。 The silence from Saudi Arabia,the Gulf states,the guarantorsofthenegotiated truceconfirmsthatthis operationistheproductofaninternational-regionalpoliticalumbrella-not an autonomous decision by Tel Aviv alone.
The Hebrew-Western Axis breaks Deterrence Norms
Since October 7th,last year，Israelhasenteredamaximumriskphase，keepingthedomesticwarmostlyconfinedtoGaza,but Meanwhile expandingitstoLebanon，Yemen,and,eventually,Iran.Despiteincurring costlysetbacksduringthe12-dayconflictwithIran,thisdoesn’tseemapparentlytoshiftitsstrategy.TelAvivmaintainsthattargetedassassinationscan stymie full-scalewar,fostering”organizationalfear”inthemilitarystructuresofresistanceforceslikeHezbollah。
Resistanceanalystsconsiderthisviewamiscalculation.TheyciteTwoDecadesshowingHezbollahasa Multi – layered,resilientorganization.Theserialkillingsoftheleaders often provokeharsherresponsesandredefineconflictrules.Peaceexpertswarnthatterrorizingleadersmayusherinabarharderscenariofor hezbollah.Infact,this incidentcouldmarkthesessiontomorecomprehensiveandbroadermilitaryresponses。
LebaneseGovernment: dysfunctionalstructureandpoliticalwillcrisis
Infaceofthisnewwaveofattack,Lebaneseofficialshavelookedalmostparalyzed.Fragmentationin politics,strongforeigndependencies,andinternalgroupcontroversieshinderanyconsensusonreaction.Thegovernmentlacksboththecapacityandpoliticalwilltoact.Ortakeclearpositions.Diplomaticinitiativesarevirtuallynonexistent。
ThissituationreinforcesHezbollah’sthesisonlyinternalcapacitycanguaranteeLebanon’ ssecurityAndnoWestern”guarantees”aremoredependable.Pressuretoweakenthegrouporlimititsmilitaryroleoverpastyearshasbecomeirrelevantinthewakeoftheassassination.AttacksonBeirut,”enteringdeepintothesuburbs”showcaseIsraelreadinessto escalate evenwhenthereappearstocalmness.Lebanonnearodetectorwithoutrealdeterrenceblendsintoafieldopenfortransitandinfiltration。
Life,Risks,andRoleofHaythamTabatabaiwithinResistanceFramework
Bornin1968southLebanon,HythamAliTabatabaicommonlyknownasAbuAli,issecondgenerationHezbollahcommander.Unlikethefoundersactive inthelate1980sduringtheorganization’intialformativephase,tabbtabaijoinedanorganizedmoredefinedstructure.HejoinedYoungandfought1990sSouthernfront.Since1996 assumedcommandnabatieuntilSouthliberated2000.helatercommandedal-Khyamfront.manage severalmainoperationsinthe2006war.Fieldreportsindicatehiskeyrolesoffensiveanti-infiltration campaignsagainstIsrael。
Post-2006 hejoinedinterventionforces playingapivotalpartindevelopingleadingeliteunitsRizwanForces.WhenSyrianConflictbeganAbuAliwasakeyjointbattlecommanderversustakfiri groups leadingcriticaloperationsQalamounAleppo.Areas supportHouthimovementoutsideYemenasconsultantandtacticalleader.USIsraelconsideredhimonekeystonefigureintheWesternAsianresistanceaxis。
InrecentyearsriseasabovenumerousleadersandafterFouadShukrkilled regardedhimastoprimarymilitarycommander.hewasmultiple times targetedbysyriaandlebanoninmultifailedIsraeliattemptsuntilNovember2025whenTelAvivorealizedasuccessfuloperationinyouthsouthsuburbs。Strategic Consequences Of the Assassination For Lebanon’S Future
Thekillingispartsetupbolsterabroaderplanaimedtodisintegratemilitarycapabilitiesandsabotageresistancecommandstructure.Israel assumesthatcreatinggolddisruptionsamongkeyfigures willundermineresistancestrengthinfuturewars.Butexperienceprovesthatheuristicnetwork-likemulti-layerstructureallowsrapid replacements amongleadership.IfHezbollahrespondsessignificantly,widerwariscertain;if responselimited,killingcampaignscan continue.TheselectionnowplacedbeforeHizbollahdefineswhetherdeterrenceruleswillberevisedfundamentally.
Conclusion
The assassinationofAbuAliTabatabaidoesisnota routineextensiofoflebanontensions.Itmarksbeginningofanewphasewhereceasefireslosemeaning，而Israeliaggressionstakesystematicforms，andWest-Hebrewaxiswalksnhigherstakes.JointUScooperation,stateactors’ silence,Lebanese government paralysis,and internal pressuresagainstresistancecreateahardchoicefor hezballaah.ThemessagefromtheattackisclearonlypoweryieldsmaycontainTelAviv.Relyingexteriorpromisesourdomefficacypoliticallyweakensdefenses.Incomingweeksorpotentialmonths’responsesbyhe?zballah determine if lebanonenters noveldeterrencemodeorcontinueslegacycycle.Itremainseclearthatpost-assassinationthenotionsofpriorequilibriumeventuntotecomeobsolete.Aslebanonadvancesthroughhiddenandovertconfrontations anew chapter unfolds.”
