Central Asian Economies Outpace Developed Nations with Growth Exceeding Six Percent in 2025

According to the Economic Desk of Webangah News Agency, economic momentum in the core Central Asian nations—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan—gained substantial speed throughout 2025. Independent estimates place the region’s aggregate growth between 6.2 and 6.6 percent, reflecting varied assessment methodologies; the World Bank reported 6.2 percent regional expansion, while the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) estimated 6.6 percent. These figures notably exclude Turkmenistan due to data limitations, yet they stand in stark relief against the slower growth forecasted for industrialized nations, such as the projected 1.6 percent for the United States and 1.1 percent for the Eurozone in 2026, with China expected to manage approximately 4.6 percent growth.

Despite these strong macroeconomic indicators, economists caution that persistent challenges, including inflation, income inequality, and reliance on external factors, continue to shape the daily economic realities across the region.

Kazakhstan: Driven by Oil and Industrial Expansion

Kazakhstan, the largest economy in the bloc, demonstrated a commendable performance, growing by about 5.9 percent in 2025, with forecasts indicating a sustained 5.5 percent expansion for 2026, marking its strongest showing in over a decade. While the oil sector remains central to this growth, buttressed by earlier-than-expected production increases at the Tengiz oil field, manufacturing output, particularly in machinery and metals, has also gained traction following the inauguration of new plants across several regions. Recognizing the inherent limitations of an energy-dependent growth model, authorities are actively channeling investment into Caspian transport corridors and processing industries to diversify revenue streams.

Uzbekistan: Structural Transformation Fuels Rapid Gains

Uzbekistan recorded one of the region’s strongest performances, achieving a GDP growth rate of 7.4 percent in 2025, with projections holding steady at 6.8 percent for 2026. This surge has seen the nation’s GDP surpass 133 billion euros in 2025, a substantial leap from roughly 56 billion euros just nine years prior. Correspondingly, per capita GDP has nearly doubled over the same period, rising from approximately 1,750 euros to about 3,220 euros. Investment in fixed capital increased by over 15 percent in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year, while export values climbed by more than 33 percent.

Global high prices for gold played a critical role, with export revenues from this precious metal soaring over 70 percent year-on-year, according to data cited by the World Bank and EDB from the Uzbek Statistical Agency. Gulsal Madrahimova, Head of the Tashkent Institute of Textile and Light Industry, emphasized the service sector’s increasing contribution, noting it now accounts for approximately 72.4 billion euros toward GDP, with digital services proving particularly vital. She cited the ‘One Million AI Programmers’ project as an example of how new skills can generate incomes many times the national average.

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan: Accelerating Growth Amidst Divergence

The Kyrgyz Republic emerged as the region’s fastest-growing economy, reporting a 10.3 percent GDP expansion in 2025, with the EDB forecasting 9.3 percent for 2026. Tajikistan also benefited from strong remittance flows and public investment. Analysts suggest that some of this recent acceleration reflects redirected trade and logistics routes following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Azerbaijan: The Energy Hub Connecting to Broader Markets

Although not geographically part of Central Asia, the Republic of Azerbaijan maintains close ties through crucial energy and trade infrastructure, experiencing more moderate economic development in 2025. The International Monetary Fund projected Azerbaijan’s GDP to grow around three percent in 2025, a deceleration compared to prior years, with the World Bank projecting 2.6 percent and the Asian Development Bank 2.4 percent. While its growth lags several Central Asian economies, Azerbaijan serves a pivotal role in connecting the region to global markets.

The Azerbaijani economy remains heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, ensuring financial stability but resulting in more gradual shifts than observed elsewhere. Energy revenues are being channeled into infrastructure projects, notably transport corridors across the Caspian Sea linking Central Asia to Europe and Turkey. These routes have gained heightened significance amid shifting trade dynamics between Asia and Europe, amplifying Azerbaijan’s importance as a transit and logistics hub for Central Asian exports, including hydrocarbons, metals, and agricultural goods. Officials are also investing in renewable energy and non-oil sectors to diversify revenue and mitigate commodity price exposure, all while maintaining close economic cooperation with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other Central Asian counterparts.

Risks and the Road Ahead for Central Asia

Economists warn that the current trajectory remains vulnerable to external shocks, including a slowdown in China’s economic growth, changes in global demand for hydrocarbons and metals, or shifts in geopolitical dynamics. The World Bank projects a steeper decline than the EDB, forecasting regional growth around 5 percent in 2026 and 4.6 percent in 2027, citing global trade uncertainty and weaker growth among key partners. For Central Asia, the crucial challenge ahead will be transforming this period of unusually rapid growth into sustained gains in productivity, income, and institutional strength, ensuring that high GDP figures translate into durable improvements in the daily quality of life.