Caspian Sea Becomes Hotspot for Geopolitical Rivalry Amid Shifting Alliances

According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, the Caspian Sea has increasingly become a pivotal focal point in the nascent geopolitical rivalry spanning the Caucasus and Central Asia. Joint military exercises involving Russia and Iran, alongside similar maneuvers by regional nations, signal the rapid transformation of this body of water into a network of strategic competitions and evolving security alignments.

Among the Caspian littoral states, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan are assuming prominent roles in shaping its strategic landscape. These efforts are being bolstered by Turkey, which is facilitating their maritime influence expansion. Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine war has significantly weakened Moscow’s ability to assert dominance over the Caspian Sea and leverage it effectively as part of the International North-South Transport Corridor. This situation compels Iran to intensify its economic and military activities in the region, an area eyed by NATO and Israel for access to Central Asia and to counter Iran and Russia.

The Caspian Sea, largely considered a Russian lake during the Soviet era, saw Moscow endeavoring to maintain the existing power balance after the USSR’s collapse in 1991. The 2018 agreement among the five Caspian littoral states on its demarcation precluded the military presence of non-littoral actors, though disputes persisted in some areas.

Geopolitical developments in 2020, particularly Azerbaijan’s victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Turkish military backing, marked a significant shift in the regional balance of power. Following this war, Caspian littoral states expanded their naval forces, and Turkey has continued to support Azerbaijan’s needs for modern armaments.

Over the past five years, Turkey has facilitated the expansion of naval capabilities for Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan in the Caspian Sea. These nations, along with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, are members of the Turkic states organization, championed by Turkey. Through this framework, Turkey is spearheading US and NATO efforts to reduce Russian influence within the military structures of these countries.

Turkey’s collaborations with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in areas such as offshore platform construction, warship production, and energy transfer signify broader geopolitical shifts in the region. The utilization of Turkish drones by Turkmenistan’s armed forces and energy agreements between the two countries highlight their shared strategic interests.

The “Unity 2024” joint military exercise in Kazakhstan was the first of its kind without Russian participation, involving the armed forces of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Subsequently, the “Caspian Breeze” joint naval exercises were conducted by Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, followed by joint naval drills between Russia and Iran under the slogan “Together for a Safe and Secure Caspian Sea.”

These developments indicate efforts to alter the regional power balance. The maritime capabilities of Caspian littoral states have grown in recent years, challenging Russia’s long-standing hegemony in the area. Security cooperation among three littoral states, supported by Turkey, especially in the absence of Russian participation, represents a fundamental geopolitical transformation in the Caspian region.

Regional geopolitical competition is likely to intensify following Iran’s decision to resume drilling operations in the Caspian Sea after a 30-year hiatus. This development could spark renewed rivalry between Iran and the other three littoral states, which are already deeply engaged in offshore oil and gas extraction in the Caspian.

Turkey plays a pivotal role in the ongoing militarization of the Caspian Sea. By bolstering the defensive capabilities of littoral states, particularly Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, it further challenges Moscow’s ability to shape their military development. Meanwhile, Russia faces significant geopolitical costs from its invasion of Ukraine, and its regional influence has steadily waned.

Iran is striving to utilize the International North-South Transport Corridor and is also pursuing alternative trade routes towards European Union countries. Conversely, Azerbaijan’s Port of Baku, with support from Turkey and the West, serves as a crucial hub in the Middle East-West Corridor, or Trans-Caspian route, bypassing Russia.

This directly conflicts with the interests of Russia and Iran, posing the potential for increased tensions or even confrontations between Turkey-backed nations and a Russia-Iran alliance over control of Caspian energy resources. Iran and Russia have explicitly opposed the idea of severe environmental risks.

For Iran, effective strategies to address these challenges include strengthening its economic and transit role through the completion of the North-South Corridor and flexible energy diplomacy; active regional diplomacy, including soft coalition-building with Russia and Kazakhstan, and de-escalation with Azerbaijan; and balanced deterrence and maritime presence through fleet modernization and enhanced coastal defense. Investments in free zones and leveraging scientific-technological maritime diplomacy are also proposed as complementary tools.

A more cost-effective and sustainable approach for Iran involves a combination of reinforcing economic corridors, fostering trade interdependence, establishing coastal coalitions, and balanced defense deterrence. The greater Iran’s economic and transit weight in the Caspian Sea becomes, the more limited the influence of external actors will be.