Ukraine War Enters Fourth Year with Moscow Gaining Initiative, Stalled Negotiations
According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, the war in Ukraine has transformed into a grinding conflict as it enters its fourth year. Russia has consolidated its standing by maintaining its advantage in firepower, achieving incremental advances in the east, and exerting sustained pressure on Ukraine’s infrastructure. Politically, negotiations continue without significant breakthroughs, and signs of fatigue are emerging within the Western consensus, factors that have increasingly tilted the scales in Moscow’s favor in the fourth year of the war.
The primary characteristics of this phase are battlefield developments, with fighting concentrated on the eastern front and competition in strategic depth. Russian forces are primarily focused on solidifying front lines in the Donetsk region and maintaining military pressure on eastern axes. The city of Pokrovsk is considered a critical logistical hub in eastern Ukraine, and a potential shift in its control could represent a significant achievement for Moscow. Aerial warfare remains a key tool for pressuring Ukraine’s urban infrastructure, with recent attacks targeting cities such as Odesa and Zaporizhzhia with waves of missiles and drones.
Conversely, Russia has also reported an increase in drone threats from Ukraine. The exchange of drone and missile attacks indicates that the war has reached a stage where the primary competition, rather than sudden shifts in operational lines, is focused on eroding the industrial and military capabilities of both sides. According to analyses from the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces captured approximately 127 square miles of Ukrainian territory between January 20 and February 17, 2026.
In Geneva, a negotiating table was set between maximalist demands and the distant prospect of an agreement on February 17 and 18. Representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the United States convened, but like previous talks, the meeting concluded without concrete political outcomes, leaving fundamental disagreements unresolved. Moscow’s stance in these negotiations remained largely unchanged, emphasizing the recognition of its territorial gains and Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership aspirations. Kyiv’s position, however, is contingent on halting hostilities along current front lines as a prerequisite for any political settlement. Volodymyr Zelensky has stressed that Ukrainian society will not accept any referendum that leads to extensive territorial concessions. Washington’s role in the Geneva talks has become a sensitive political focal point. Donald Trump has set a deadline of June for achieving an agreement and has placed significant pressure on Kyiv.
Overall, the only area that saw limited progress in the Geneva negotiations pertained to technical aspects of monitoring a potential ceasefire. The parties reached a partial consensus on the necessity of a joint mechanism for field monitoring and the role of American observation. However, core political issues, particularly the determination of the status of disputed regions, remain deadlocked.
In the fourth year of the war, Russia’s strategic position has strengthened compared to the conflict’s outset. Moscow has managed to maintain control over parts of eastern Ukraine and retains the operational initiative on most fronts. Simultaneously, Russia’s economy has not collapsed under extensive Western sanctions, and European intelligence analyses suggest that the country’s industrial and military capacity to sustain a war of attrition remains active. On the military front, the prevailing scenario in the short term is assessed to be a continued war of attrition.
