Iran Establishes New Deterrence Equation Against Israel
According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, Iran‘s overnight attack on occupied territories was more than a military response to the bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs or a mere message of support for Hezbollah. A more significant objective of these attacks was Iran’s effort to solidify a new deterrence equation in the region. The essence of this equation is that if Israel targets the southern suburbs, a response could directly come from Iran towards Haifa and northern Israel.
By establishing this new equation, Tehran aims to prevent the Israeli regime from gaining an advantage in managing escalating tensions. Tel Aviv had recently attempted to expand the scope of its attacks in Lebanon, particularly in the south and the southern suburbs. However, Iran intends to transfer the cost of attacking the southern suburbs directly to the occupied territories.
Al Jazeera, in an article addressing this issue, noted that the selection of northern occupied territories for the first round of attacks lends greater weight to this message. Haifa and its surroundings, along with military bases in the north, are considered sensitive depths for Tel Aviv and are directly linked to the Lebanese front. Therefore, including them within the scope of Iran’s response implies that the southern suburbs are no longer a target that can be attacked without the possibility of a direct response from Tehran.
Strategic Messages of Iran’s Attacks
Aref Dehghanadar, an international security researcher, stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that Iran’s missile attacks on occupied territories carry clear strategic messages. Foremost among these is the emphasis on Tehran’s “irrevocable commitment to its regional network of allies” and the establishment that targeting areas like Beirut’s southern suburbs is considered “a clear violation of Iran’s security red lines.”
Dehghanadar added that through this action, Tehran seeks to demonstrate a fundamental shift in its strategic approach. It is no longer a predictable player in its adversaries’ deterrence calculations and, if necessary, is capable of transcending previous patterns and taking independent and direct initiative on the field.
This international security researcher believes that Tehran’s strategic assumption is based on the point that the United States currently has no inclination to escalate tensions, making the management of attack consequences simpler. In contrast, the Israeli regime will perceive new changes in the power balance as a serious damage to its deterrence structure.
Al Jazeera, quoting Dehghanadar, predicted that the Israeli regime would attempt to repair the deterrence lines and prove its security decision-making independence, free from external considerations and variables like the pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump, through a limited and controlled independent response.
The Unfulfilled U.S. Promise
On the other hand, Reza Ghabishavi, a political analyst, assessed Iran’s attack from the perspective of ceasefire violations and the United States’ withdrawal from previous commitments. He told Al Jazeera that Iran’s missile attack on occupied territories was, in fact, a response to the violation of the ceasefire and the U.S. reneging on its promises to Iran.
Ghabishavi added that according to the ceasefire understanding between Iran and the U.S., mediated by Pakistan, this understanding was supposed to include Lebanon, but this did not happen. U.S. President Donald Trump had pledged to prevent Israel from attacking the southern suburbs, but contrary to his promise, he declared his support for the Israeli regime’s attacks on the southern suburbs.
According to this political analyst, Iranian officials aim to send a message to the United States and the Israeli regime that Iran remains prepared for war and any potential attacks against it.
A Serious Test of the Deterrence Equation
Al Jazeera concluded by stating that Iran’s attack goes beyond an immediate response and is part of an effort to redefine the rules of engagement. Tehran does not want the Israeli regime to be able to continue attacking the southern suburbs or Lebanon while maintaining control over the level of attacks and the potential areas for missile responses.
According to the report, the danger of the current situation lies in the fact that both sides are examining the equation from opposing viewpoints. Iran seeks to establish the “southern suburbs versus the north” equation, while Israel may view the acceptance of this rule, even implicitly, as an erosion of its deterrence capability and freedom of action in Lebanon.
