Opportunistic assessment of US engagement scenarios in the future of the Gaza war

report Mehr News, the news site of Al-Zitouneh Study Center, in an article examines the behavior of the United States during the last six months of the Gaza war and writes that the United States has extensively and at a high level in the last six months He managed the Al-Aqsa war in Gaza and participated as a full partner of the Zionist regime in this war of aggression.

Despite being preoccupied with managing the Russian case and the war in Ukraine, as well as competing with China, the American government felt compelled to once again strongly enter into regional conflicts. , because he felt the organization of security, military and economic structures in the region that he had designed before; It is on the verge of collapse.

In the previous part, the type of American behavior regarding the Gaza war, as well as the gaps in the positions of the US President Joe Biden’s government and the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet Zionism is seen, it was investigated and it was stated that despite the differences that exist in the details of the war process and its management, so far there has been no fundamental disagreement about the goals of this war. In this part, we will examine the fixed and variable components of the American policy-making towards the Gaza war and enumerate the different scenarios of America’s interaction with the future of this war, and we will examine how to interact with each of these scenarios.

Third: Components of American policy towards war

The American position towards the Gaza war is influenced by a set of stable strategic components as well as immediate and variable indicators that affect the interests of the United States, especially the interests of the conflict and its consequences. The Democratic Party is defined. These components are:

1- Strategic components (fixed):

These components include the approaches and positions of the United States regarding the Zionist regime and the Arab-Israeli conflict in the region during recent decades, which took place before the Al-Aqsa storm operation and probably during The future steps will be the same. These components include the following:

A: America’s desire to continue its dominance and influence in the region and not allow other great powers to obstruct the process of American influence or threaten the interests of this country in the Middle East, which America He always considers it as a vital and important region for his strategic interests.

B: Continuing to dominate the oil trade and global oil-rich areas in the Middle East and guaranteeing the lack of access to these areas by America’s international competitors, as well as insisting on selling oil with dollars and sending its economic revenues to the American markets. As a result of this policy, the amount of Arab investments in the American economy is over 1.7 trillion dollars, and significant amounts of these investments are unable to leave the market of this country except with the permission of the American government.

C: Providing security and support for the Zionist regime and guaranteeing its military superiority against the countries of the region and stimulating the process of normalization between Israel and the Arab and Islamic governments. This issue is a strategic goal for America, which is not affected by the change of governments and related political developments. Annual US aid to Israel amounts to 3.8 billion dollars, in addition to the fact that this regime has the right to access US military technology without any restrictions.

D: Obstructing the path of creating regional powers that threaten American interests. It does not matter whether these powers are regional movements or Arab and Islamic countries. The effort to contain Iran and control the Hamas movement as a strategic and fixed goal of American policy in the region is part of this approach.

E: Trying to maintain American bases in the region. America has about 63 military bases in 12 Arab countries of the region.

And: guaranteeing the sale of weapons and military technology to America’s allies in the region.

In addition to these fixed strategic components, which influence the behavior of the American government regarding the Gaza war, there is another important and fundamental factor in this process, which can be considered in the extensive activity of Zionist groups and lobbies in America. These lobbies are influential powers that benefit from the support and solidarity of the country’s media. In addition to the fact that Zionist businessmen also have a great impact on the American economy and the financing of election campaigns in the presidential elections of this country. Therefore, this factor also plays a fundamental role in determining the positions of the US government regarding the Gaza war and all developments related to the Arab-Israeli conflict.

2- Immediate (variable) components:

These components include events and temporary motivations and regional and international indicators that have an impact on the decision-making process inside the United States, including the Gaza war. The most important of these are:

A: Impact of the upcoming US election in November 2024. There are worrying indicators for the American Democrats regarding their punishment regarding its position in the Gaza war.

B: The decline of America’s image at the level of Arab and Islamic countries due to its partiality and unlimited support for the aggression of the Zionist regime in Gaza, which makes this country a full partner of Israel’s genocide in Gaza. introduces America’s side with the Zionist regime harms this country’s claims regarding western civilizational values ​​and freedom and human rights and defending the rights of women and children, which America has been a claimant for in the past decades.

A: America’s concern about erosion in two long-term wars in the shadow of continuing conflicts in Ukraine and advancing the Gaza war.

D: America’s desire to return peace to the region. The war in Gaza has disrupted the American strategy to reduce tension in the region and reduce the entry into armed conflicts.

E: The desire to isolate the war in Gaza between the resistance groups and the Zionist army and the concern of expanding the scope of the war and turning it into a regional war that America wants. It is not.

And: the increase in maritime threats in the Red Sea after the operation of Yemen’s Ansarullah in attacking the ships that move towards the occupied territories. This issue has caused damage to international trade and threatens the interests of the United States and its Western allies and has caused great damage to the Zionist regime. For this reason, the United States has carried out attacks against specific targets in Yemen, but has not been able to disrupt their determination and determination towards this operation.

G: The emergence of disagreements among the Democrats, whose signs are in the disagreement between US President Joe Biden and the democratic youth and the progressive wing of this party, which have critical approaches towards Israel’s policies have, it can be seen.

The results of the Gallup Institute survey in March 2024 show that for the first time, the majority of American Democrats have more solidarity with the Palestinians than with the Zionist regime. The divisions among the Democratic Party regarding the expansion of support for Zionist lobbies and increasing pressure on them and its interventions in the American political arena can also be seen, and currently 25 institutions are against the interventions of Zionist lobbies in American politics.

H: The continuation of the dominance of unilateralism in the decision-making of the American National Security Council in order to provide the goals and interests of the Zionist regime. Currently, 82 members of the American Congress have supported the Zionist regime in the war against Gaza and declared their opposition to the ceasefire.

i: The increasing concern of Americans towards the policies of Netanyahu and the extremists in the cabinet, which has caused a political, sociological and ideological divide in the Zionist society. The American government has also expressed its concern about Netanyahu’s tensions regarding American policies and ignoring the country’s interests.

: The expansion of the influence of Zionist Christianity in America includes tens of millions of Americans who support Israel, who support the Zionist regime based on ideological motives. Most of these people belong to the Republican Party and include a significant proportion of voters in this party.

K: America’s concerns about the possible consequences of the continuation of the Gaza war on the stability of some regional powers united by the United States, as a result of increasing public anger towards the weak positions of these governments and their inability to Dealing with the war crimes of the Zionist regime is under threat.

Fourth: Possible future policies of the US government towards the Gaza war

In the shadow of all the strategic components and variables in drawing the positions of the American government, as well as the interests of the Democratic Party before the elections, the following possible scenarios can be considered regarding the future positions of the United States. He drew the Gaza war until the end of this year:

The first scenario: Continued support of the United States for the long-term continuation of the war until the end of this year and provide the necessary political, military and economic support to the Zionist regime without increasing pressure to stop the war.

The second scenario: A more serious entry of America into the field of regional tensions in The result of the widening scope of the regional war and the entry of other parties into it.

Third scenario: US support for a ceasefire that could lead to the return It will lead to peace in the region and lay the groundwork for the advancement of the reconciliation process between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Feasibility of proposed scenarios:

According to the American decision-makers, this scenario gives the Zionist regime more opportunities to achieve the goals of the Gaza war and creates the basis for the erosion of Iran and the weakening of its regional allies. The construction of a port for the entry of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip in front of the coast of this country shows the readiness of the United States for a long-term interaction with this war. This port can be proposed as an alternative to the Rafah crossing to increase the pressure on Egyptian policies, in addition to the fact that it may become a passage for the forced migration of Palestinians from Gaza.

This scenario, of course, faces challenges that can hinder the possibility of realizing the goals of the US and Israel from the war:

* The difficulty of defeating the Palestinian resistance and disarming it in the shadow of the stability and strength of the Palestinian groups to continue the struggle.

* It is difficult to create an alternative government in Gaza with the possibility of security coordination with it, as in the Akhtari Bank, because such an organization is not approved by the people in Gaza.

* The extreme approaches of Netanyahu’s cabinet and the shutdown of the efforts to create a political process based on the solution of the formation of two governments, led the Arab countries to play a role in the security arrangements in The case of the future of Gaza after the war has been drawn.

* Increasing international pressure to stop the war and monitor the humanitarian situation in Gaza

2- The chances of realizing the second scenario, that is, the entry of America into an all-encompassing regional war, are less than other cases. Because the Americans are currently following Russia’s war in Ukraine and managing their competition with China, and they do not want to expand the scope of conflicts and a new war. Because such a war erodes the power of America and is not in the interest of this country. In the shadow of the contradiction created in the American calculations with the Zionist cabinet, it seems that the Israelis are showing more courage in opposing the approaches of the Biden government.

3- The possibility of the realization of the third scenario by increasing the components related to a gradual change in the tactics of the American government in support of the idea of ​​reaching a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, provided that the goals are met The US and Israel have been increasingly concerned about ending the rule of Hamas and fulfilling US-accepted conditions for the future of Gaza. Among these indicators, it is possible to point out the US abstaining on the resolution presented by the 10 non-permanent member countries of the Security Council, which demanded an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza war during the holy month of Ramadan.

This scenario is more consistent with America’s desire to create a new regional order and rebuild the structure of the region and manage the competition with China and advance the normalization of relations with the Zionist regime and focus more on the dimensions economic, including the advancement of the economic belt from New Delhi to Europe to counter China’s belts. This process can ensure the continuation of American dominance in the region and keep it under American hegemony through regional actors. The Zionist regime plays an essential role in advancing this strategy.

Fifth: America’s possible future behaviors and options regarding the Gaza war

In the shadow of the current behavior of the Americans and referring to the strategic and immediate factors affecting the position of this country towards the Gaza war, the approaches and options of the American government until the presidential elections are held. List the republic in this country in the following cases:

1- Despite the fact that there is a long-term strategic alliance between America and the Zionist regime, and despite the continued support of the United States for the goals of the Zionist regime in the Gaza war and its insistence on supporting Israel and securing the interests of this regime, but it seems that the differences and gradual tension between the Biden administration and Netanyahu have increased, and the costs of Netanyahu’s policies and the extreme right for the American Democratic cabinet have increased.

Israel’s security and military defeat on October 7 created a feeling among Americans that Tel Aviv is not as powerful as they thought and may be a strategic burden for America’s interests become. They have come to the conclusion that instead of fulfilling its functional duties in supporting American interests in the region, Israel needs extensive and continuous political, military, and economic support from the United States in order to eliminate its existential risks.

In this regard, we see that the popularity of the Zionist regime in the American society and especially among the American youth will decrease from 64% to 38% only in 2023 and 2024. and this is not a temporary impact that is only limited to the Gaza war.

3- There is a possibility that America seeks to achieve its goals in guaranteeing dominance over the region and closing the way of Russia and China and preventing their investment and strengthening their presence in The region should find ways out of the current crisis only in its own policies.

4- It is expected that the United States will seek to reestablish calm and reduce tension in the region in order to prevent itself from being eroded on multiple fronts of conflict and the necessary opportunity to continue He won the war in Ukraine and managed to compete with China. At the same time, Netanyahu’s policy is based on expanding the scope of conflicts and prolonging them and dragging America into an all-out war with Iran.

5- The Americans will probably strengthen their policy in the Palestinian and Arab fields and will try to change the political situation in Gaza and remove the Hamas movement from managing this area. to depose and give a better role to the Palestinian Authority. In the meantime, a greater role may be given to Arab countries and even Turkey to organize the future security situation in Gaza.

7- Americans will claim to give priority to human dimensions and respect international humanitarian laws by starting a propaganda discourse and by criticizing the killing of civilians in Gaza will try to reduce the amount of negative consequences of this war on the image of America among the nations of the region and the world and minimize the consequences of their full support of Israel’s crimes.

Sixth: Suggestions

In light of possible future approaches and behaviors of America regarding the Gaza war, the following suggestions can be made:

1- Applying maximum pressure on America to influence its positions in the Gaza war, which can have a significant impact on determining the course of conflicts. In this context, it is possible to use the lever of pressure in the domestic and foreign arenas during the presidential elections in this country.

2- Accepting America’s convergence with the Gaza war and avoiding exaggeration regarding the differences between the Biden government and Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet during the war. In this context, the impact of immediate variables in America’s support for the Zionist regime based on political and electoral interests should not be ignored.

3- Continuing to support the resistance and strengthening its popular base is the most important and influential factor in determining the course of conflicts, which can have the greatest impact on the positions of regional and international parties. to have a war against this.