Horn of Africa; The view of regional-international powers to the west of the Indian Ocean

Mehr news agency, relations between international: during the last five hundred years one One of the important features in the rise and fall of great powers has been the presence and dominance of international actors in oceans, vital waterways, straits and strategic ports. From the remains of the Portuguese presence on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf to the competition between the American and Chinese navies for the construction of a military base in Djibouti, it shows the importance of the presence of powers in the communication highways.

This competition is not limited only to the club of great powers and the countries of West Asia are also following Increasing their sphere of influence in international waters. Brahmin is the basis of regional-international international powers in the last two decades, seeking to increase the scope of its role. In the Horn of Africa, they are Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia and Ethiopia. According to the International Monetary Fund, only 12% of world trade passes through the Suez-Bab Al-Mandab border on the northeastern edge of Africa. In the continuation of this text, we will try to have a look at the competition between regional-international powers in the Horn of Africa.

US-China rivalry in North Africa

With the intensification of the competition between the three poles of global power, namely America, Russia and China, the African continent has become one of the most important points of competition in the “game of the elders”. “High penetration”, “increasing need for foreign investment and technology”, “intense local-regional competition” and of course the presence of “abundant natural resources” have made the African continent a suitable place for global powers to exert their influence. Currently, China with 25.8 percent, the United States with 8.6 percent, and Russia with 3.7 percent are the first three partners of African countries in the field of economic relations, and the European Union and members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council are in the next ranks.

“AFRICAM” is the core of Washington’s military-intelligence presence in the Horn of Africa region. According to this military institution, the Americans currently have thirty-four bases across the Black Continent; Especially the Horn of Africa countries. After the news of the construction of the Chinese military base in Djibouti, the Americans also increased their presence in this region. Washington also has five military bases in Somalia. The presence of these bases allows the US Air Force and UAV units to expand their operational range from the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea. With the expansion of the Gaza war beyond the occupied territories and the intensification of maritime insecurity in the Red Sea, American bases in East Africa have become very important. Brahmin base of Centcom announced in an official statement that the United States as the leader of the naval coalition “Guardians of Happiness” With the aim of completing the security chain in the northwest of the Indian Ocean, it has also been present in the islands of Socotri.

After providing a line of credit-investment worth 60 billion dollars for African countries and participating in many of the continent’s infrastructure projects, the Chinese decided to expand their sphere of military influence- increase its security in the Aden-Red Sea area. The construction of the country’s first foreign military base in Djibouti, followed by the docking of the Chinese aircraft carrier on the shores of this African country in 2021, shows Beijing’s creeping move to develop its military presence in the region. Of course, the Chinese authorities have tried on various occasions to deny any military-security motivation for being in Africa and always emphasize the expansion of economic relations and assistance to the program of developing countries.

The series of anti-Western coups by military groups close to Russia in Gabon, Niger and Mali show Moscow’s rise to develop this country’s strategic depth in the African continent and at the same time create a “playing card » It is in geostrategic competition with the Euro-Atlantic countries. Unlike Djibouti, the Russians have considerable influence in Eritrea. This point can be seen from the significant vote of this African country for the resolution condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine to the United Nations General Assembly in 2022. Although Russia’s main focus for its presence in Africa is to expel Western governments and become a political, military and economic partner of North and Central African countries; But the presence of the Russians in this region can be a prelude to the revival of the influence of the former Soviet Union in the northwest of the Indian Ocean.

War of regional powers

The marathon competition for presence in the Horn of Africa region is not limited to world powers. During the last fifteen years, Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia sought to increase their presence in this strategic region in a tight competition. The intense competition between these regional powers has not only affected the balance situation in the Northwest Indian Ocean, but has also caused a fluid situation in the unstable competition-hostility patterns in the region. As an example, Qataris have the possibility to use Turkish military bases to fight against pirates and terrorist groups and vice versa.

After the official unveiling of China’s highway “One Belt One Road”, the Emiratis with Accompanying the port operator “Al-Mowani Al-Dubai” the policy of expanding the influence of this Gulf country on the east coast of the African continent were put on the agenda. Eritrea, Somalia land and recently Djibouti have become the infringement base of these three regional powers in the Indo-Pacific. For example, in 2016, the Emiratis granted the port Barbara in the autonomous region of Somalia Land for They got 30 years. It is necessary to mention that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Türkiye also have a military presence in Djibouti. On the opposite side, Turkey-Qatar have a much more colorful presence in Somalia and Sudan. Of course, experts believe that the presence of the Emiratis in East Africa is somehow complementary to the presence of this country in the strategic archipelago Socotri.

Turkey under the presidency of Erdogan, which seeks to revive the influence of the Ottoman Empire in the “Middle East and North Africa” ​​region, is considered another important player in the Horn of Africa. The Turks, with the help of Qatari partners, obtained the permission to build a sea dock with military-civilian use during Omar Abd al-Bashir; But with the effectiveness of the military in Sudan and the freezing of tensions between the regional powers, a level of political conflicts Decreased. In the current situation, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Cairo have become Turkey’s partners in economic-military affairs and are not looking for a “zero sum game” as before. However, in order to be able to protect its maritime trade line in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean, Turkey has not reduced its military-security presence in this area.

Bahre Sakhan

The planning of the Zionist army to start military operations in Rafah will affect the security conditions in other areas. Middle East; Especially the southern coast of Yemen. During the four stages of anti-Israel operations in the Red Sea region (most recently in the Eastern Mediterranean), the Yemeni National Army has succeeded in stopping the normal activities of the port of Eilat, as well as stopping the activities or changing the traditional route of large shipping companies in the Red Sea region.

In other words, despite the presence of various regional-international actors in East Africa and the shape of Giri But it is Yemen’s resistance that determines the conditions for the end or continuation of tension in the region. Some analysts believe that one of the consequences of the Al-Aqsa storm battle is to determine the scope of influence and acting of each of the actors mentioned, regardless of media advertisements or political shows. In the new era, the Islamic Republic of Iran can play a prominent role as a “security-creating” power in securing the security of value production chains and international shipping in the waters of the Indian Ocean.