The possibility of Armenia withdrawing from the Collective Security Treaty and its consequences

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the Collective Security Treaty Organization of It consists of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia and Belarus. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Yerevan and Moscow have been close allies, and Armenia has hosted a Russian military base. But in the past year, with Azerbaijan taking control of Nagorno-Karabakh in a short and quick attack, the relations between Moscow and Yerevan have turned dark.

Pashinyan’s refusal to attend the meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization is the latest in a series of events that show the cooling of relations between Russia and Armenia. Pashinyan previously canceled a planned exercise of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in the territory of Armenia and refused to attend the meeting of “independent independent countries” in October 2023. The Collective Security Treaty can be seen as a hindrance to Armenia’s efforts to procure weapons and ask for support from Western countries, and by withdrawing from this treaty, access to weapons is considered one of Yerevan’s privileges.

This decision is due to the increase in tensions with Russia and Moscow’s support for Azerbaijan in the Karabakh conflict. The coalition does not fulfill its contractual obligations, but is planning a war against Armenia with the cooperation of Azerbaijan.

He called the Collective Security Treaty Organization ineffective in the Karabakh conflict and responsible for the migration of 100 thousand. The Armenian resident of the Karabakh region is responsible for this organization.

Instead, Pashinyan’s government held joint exercises with American forces and asked the West for help to strengthen its democracy and even He has mentioned that he can one day seek to join the European Union. Armenia’s geopolitical shift is on the rise with rapid developments that all seem to be moving towards a break with Russia.

Armenia’s dependence on Russian energy

Given Pashinyan’s words regarding Armenia’s withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, this is a point worth considering. This country is dependent on Russian energy. Armenia provides 20-30% of its energy needs through domestic sources and is highly dependent on Russia in the field of energy.

Given that Armenia does not have gas, in this regard It depends on foreign markets. It has a lot of dependence on Russia and partly on Iran. The company “Gazprom Armenia” (with special shares) guarantees the distribution and sale of natural gas in the domestic market of Armenia and has an absolute monopoly in this field.

A small country like Armenia has the ability to have companies It does not have different gas supply. Entering the market and creating new gas supply pipelines and infrastructure will not be beneficial for any other company.

According to the latest information published by the customs authorities, in the first half of 2022 AD, 234 A thousand tons of oil and oil products (oil, gasoline, diesel, oil, etc.) have been imported to Armenia.

77% of it from Russia, about 12% from Iran, 5 The percentage is imported from Greece and the rest to a lesser extent from Egypt (4%) and other countries. Usually, Armenia also imports oil products from Bulgaria, Germany, UAE, Belarus and other countries.

However, here too, as we can see, Russia is the main supplier. Armenia also imports the nuclear fuel required for the nuclear power plant (uranium) from Russia. Russia will have heavy consequences for Armenia.

This is the case if, in order to supply energy from Armenia’s internal sources, there is a need for a lot of expenses for the construction and operation of the power plant, which itself The time span is at least several years, and with a short-term view, it is not possible to guarantee Armenia’s reliance on energy production sources from solar energy, which is considered by the Minister of Energy of Armenia.

He also ignored the fact that Georgia, which is currently one of the countries that has played a role in the import of energy from Russia to Armenia, and also plays a significant role in the export of Armenian electricity; However, if Armenia withdraws from this organization, Georgia will face restrictions and challenges in its trade with Armenia due to the prevailing pressures from Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Formed with goals like those of NATO, this bloc has been accused of not reacting to defend Armenia after Azerbaijan’s attacks on Armenia. However, the CSTO’s effectiveness has long been questioned. It has been criticized because the bloc has failed to respond to the outbreak of violence within and between member states.

When Armenia joined this alliance, it faced a difficult situation with two hostile neighbors and threats. It was constantly facing the renewal of conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh and therefore the country placed its trust in Russia and the CSTO as the main guarantor of its security.

However, the outbreak of war in 2020 and The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has had serious consequences for the sustainability of this cooperation. But Armenia’s claim to join the European Union has consequences. NATO must make a choice, as EU members are reluctant to support a member of the Russian-backed alliance, especially in light of the war in Ukraine.

It seems so. that if Armenia separates from the Collective Security Treaty Organization and joins the European Union, Russia has many tools at its disposal to punish Armenia.

If Armenia tries to leave its orbit Russia controls different parts of Armenia, especially in the field of energy. This country also has the ability to punish Armenia economically by blocking its exports, because Russia is Armenia’s biggest market. He did not present the collective security pact, nor did Putin express a serious position regarding Pashinyan’s decision.  

Moscow does not have any definite plan to get involved in another front due to being involved in the war in Ukraine, but it seems that Pashinyan intends to receive concessions from Moscow in exchange for This country supports Azerbaijan.

Also, it is important to note that the West has a tendency to accept Armenia due to the West’s unwillingness to the Caucasus, considering the historical background regarding this. It does not have a region, and Armenia’s joining the European Union and receiving support and weapons from the West is due to the lack of suitable geopolitical and geoeconomic conditions, as well as the poverty of underground resources, and involves huge and irreparable costs for the West.

Masouma Mohammadi, an expert on Eurasian issues

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