Turkish analyst: Türkiye’s economic crisis cannot be solved with foreign capital

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the economic crisis in Turkey continues and the economists of this country believe that before the beginning of 2024, Turkish people should wait for another wave of inflation. Economists estimate that inflation will peak in November.

According to the inflation forecast survey conducted by Reuters and with the presence of 11 expert participants, expect Inflation increased by 3.68% in November. This means that the annual inflation will reach 62.61%.

At the same time, the Turkish media does not show much interest in the statements of Turkish Treasury Minister Mehmet Şimşek.

This elite economist whom Erdoğan was able to bring back to Turkey from the heart of American Wall Street and the Doha and London Stock Exchange and entrust him with the helm of the economy, came to the field with the slogan of restoring the economy. But now that 6 months have passed since the beginning of his activity, not only has nothing positive happened, but inflation has increased and the value of the Turkish lira has declined even more. The attraction of foreign capital has been announced, but some commentators believe that the Turkish economy needs something more than foreign capital to overcome this crisis.

Taha Ak Yul is one of the political commentators and expert writers in The field of the history of the republic and the history of the economy of Turkey has written about Mehmet Şimşek’s strategic error and addressed the issue that Şimşek, in a short period of several years, has completely abandoned the issue of “necessity of economic reforms”.

In Mehmet Shimshek’s statements about the solutions for the transition from Turkey’s economic crisis, the attraction of foreign capital is mentioned, but some important and vital issues are left out.

To understand To make this issue clearer and to get acquainted with some of the major problems of the Turkish economy, we review Ak Yul’s analytical note:

Why doesn’t Mehmet Şimşek talk about the main problem?

As you remember, Turkey on October 21, 2021 by the Financial Action Task Force ( FATF) affiliated to the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) was included in the gray list. Therefore, when Mehmit Shimshek was introduced as the Treasury Minister, he announced that one of the first and most important priorities of his team is to try to get out of this list.

Shimshek What did he do to achieve this goal? He quickly formed a committee with the Ministry of Interior, the Ministry of Justice and the group under his command, and in a short period of time, he was able to fix 5 of the 7 defects that were announced by the special financial action group regarding Turkey’s financial issues. /p>

He officially made a statement about the achievement after a coordination meeting on July 10. Stating that being on the gray list causes “reduction of capital movement” and “increase in the cost of syndicated loans” due to high dirty risk, Shimshek announced: “We will quickly take the necessary measures to get out of the gray list and the effect We will see the positive effect of this issue on the reputation of our country in international public opinion. (July 15).

As we saw after that, Shimshek and his colleagues’ fight against black money or dirty money got stronger and the Minister of Interior, Ali Yerli Kaya, seriously dealt with the gangs. Drugs and mafia groups entered the war so that the entry of their capital into Turkey’s economic cycle would not cause global criticism against our country.

Attention to two vital elements: the rule of law and meritocracy

In short, what happened in these few months in Turkey, It is Mehmet Shimshek’s effort to attract investment in the country by turning to rationality and orthodox economy. At the same time, the efforts of Ali Yerli Kaya, the Minister of Interior, to attract investment in the country by building trust and adhering to international standards to fight the phenomenon of money laundering and dirty wealth.

The behavior and actions of both The minister is wise and correct in terms of understanding the economic and moral issues in the international economic system.

Shimshek, unlike previous ministers, does not evaluate the country’s economy like a laboratory mouse with trial and error methods. slows down and uses a solution that has a scientific basis and has passed its test.

He knows very well that international audit and financial transparency laws are fundamental issues and are vital in the financial system of developed countries. But the point is that in order to achieve such goals, the important and fundamental issue of “meritorious rule” should also be taken into account. Pay attention to such an important issue. We remember that when Turkey was put on the gray list, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, in explaining the reason for this issue, gave a handful of epic and baseless reasons to the media and related the case to irrelevant issues such as Western support for Kavala and Demirtas. Gave! As we have seen, those rhetorical and empty statements led the Turkish economy to deep crises. International Credit Rating increased Turkey’s rating from negative to positive.

Also the International Monetary Fund, Ficth and Moody’s also made positive statements about Turkey’s turn towards an orthodox economy. But despite all these events, Turkey has a long way to go in order to become a country that can be trusted and invested in by foreigners, and what Şimşek did not address in his recent statements is the important issue of reforms. .

Remember, last year, when several international credit institutions declared Turkey’s economy to be low-rated and close to bankruptcy, Erdogan’s team called it “the malice of enemies.” called “foreigner” and announced that Turkey’s economy is developing and has no particular problem!

What did Erdoğan’s team do at the height of the economic crisis? 1. To win the elections and promote populist goals, he printed banknotes without backing. 2. In order to keep currency price stable, hundreds of billions of dollars from the Central Bank’s currency resources gave 3. Using statistical tricks, he pretended that there is an economic boom. Mehmet Shimshek 8 years ago (December 1, 2015) A speech addressed to the economists of the country, his goals and priorities for economic reforms, it was categorized as follows:

1. Financial discipline.

2. Compliance with the conditions of membership in the European Union .

3. Extensive structural reforms in the Turkish economy.

All these goals and priorities were correct and he was undoubtedly right. But the evidence shows that they did not allow him to implement his goals and that is why he resigned and left Turkey. Our per capita income fell by one thousand dollars, preventing the implementation of the same 3 objectives of Shimshek. Now he has returned to Turkey and is trying to put the train back on track in a country where these three basic policies have deviated. It has political issues and of course we will fight for our interests. But the problem is that we have a serious deviation from the norms and standards, and we need reforms in sensitive issues such as the lack of independence of the judiciary and the lack of independence of the Central Bank.

Erdogan used to say, Europe is actually a crusader union and it is fighting against us. But now, Şimşek says: Turkey and the EU are stronger when they are together. But if Shimshek is really looking for such a goal, we should first of all value the issue of reforms and return to the negotiating table.

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