What are the obstacles to the peace agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia? – Part I

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia last week They exchanged soldiers and Armenia gave up its bid to host the climate change conference (COP29) in favor of Azerbaijan. gave America and Turkey have announced that they believe that a lasting peace can be achieved between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Even in Armenia, there are reports that a meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia will be held in Washington next month. It was published, but Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhon Bayramov denied this news.

Although the leaders of the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia since the end of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 on the signing of the peace and normalization agreement Relations work on different platforms, but how close they are to these goals is still questionable. The Council of the European Union has started and is scheduled to be held at the end of October this year, he will not participate due to lack of time. It is not ready to sign on the table, it is not advisable.

Therefore, Aliyev, who met with domestic and foreign political commentators at a forum organized by ADA University on December 5, the importance of the next meeting that He stated that it will be held in the format of Brussels to be solution-oriented and said: This meeting should be well prepared and result-oriented. Because if it is not result-oriented, we will send a wrong message to our people and the international world. This is our position and I think they understand it in Brussels.

Despite such uncertainty, the actions of Azerbaijan and Armenia against each other in December were surprising and unexpected. On December 7, as a result of negotiations between the office of the President of Azerbaijan and the office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia without any mediator, the two countries reached an agreement on the exchange of prisoners. Azerbaijan released 32 Armenian captives and Armenia released 2 Azerbaijani captives. (COP29) withdrew and supported Azerbaijan’s candidacy.

Armen Grigoryan, Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, speaking on Armenian Public Television on December 9, said that this joint statement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a step is important on the way to reach a peace agreement and added that the peace agreement can be signed before the end of the year.

Onnik James Krikorian, British journalist and political commentator says: This process feels similar to the process The Minsk Group creates. Never say never, but by the end of the year there was no sign of a framework agreement, let alone a comprehensive agreement. Instead, before 2020, there was a sense of déjà vu similar to that experienced in the OSCE Minsk Group process. However, last week’s joint statement is only welcome, but that doesn’t mean a deal is imminent. This is a step in the right direction and is quite encouraging, but a lot depends on what happens next, and we don’t know what will happen next.

Krikorian notes: Last year also promises of an agreement We heard until the end of the year. It is not yet clear whether the main differences have been resolved before the joint statement. There is no doubt that some of the circulating rhetoric should be stopped and people should prepare for peace.

Farhad Mamedov, the director of the Baku-based South Caucasus Research Center, believes that a peace agreement is in the future. will be signed soon, but the geopolitical struggle for the South Caucasus has increased, which makes the location of the signing of the peace agreement an issue for the major powers.

He emphasizes: however that Azerbaijan is trying to mediate between intermediaries and reduce the geopolitical tension surrounding this process, but the withdrawal of the Armenian government from traditional alliances, actions against Russia and Western support for Armenia created great problems for this process. The geopolitical background currently has a negative impact on the peace process.

Annik James Krikorian, a political commentator believes: There is still no agreement on some issues that are considered essential for signing a peace agreement. Does not exist. Unfortunately, we do not know all the details of the discussions, but from what we can gather, it seems that there are obstacles related to defining borders, using maps and solving the problem of enclaves, opening economic routes and regional transportation. Baku continues to build the road connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Iran, but it is clear that the originally agreed road through Armenia has not been forgotten. In any case, this was considered the main basis of interdependence and peace.

According to Krikorian, the main problem is how such a road works, especially in terms of customs and border regulations and Also, there is a difference of opinion on the security of transit of people and goods. In Armenia and the reaction of the Republic of Azerbaijan