Why is Zelensky’s fate tied to defeat in the Ukrainian war?
Mehr News Agency, International Group, Abolfazl Hashemi: While 33 months have passed since the war in Ukraine, observers now believe that the balance of power in this war has completely shifted to Russia and Kiev. has no chance of winning this battle. In fact, the evidence clearly shows that Ukraine is doomed to defeat in this war.
The root of the war in Ukraine should be found in the NATO summit in Bucharest, the capital of Romania in 2008 > did where even Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, was invited as a guest. In this controversial meeting, with the pressure of the administration of George Bush Jr., Georgia and Ukraine were unveiled as the next candidates for NATO membership. Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy were against this decision and considered the expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders as an example of Moscow’s provocation, the liberal policies of American hegemony in the unipolar world imposed this decision on the Europeans.
After the first wave of tensions in 2014, which led to the separation of the Crimean peninsula from the territory of Ukraine, the Trump administration in the first term Sekandari in the White House agreed to send advanced military weapons to Yev. This decision was accompanied by harsh criticism from Russia, but in the end it was Joe Biden who ignored Moscow’s official letter to receive security guarantees about Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO. It fueled the beginning of the conflict on February 24, 2022.
Ukraine in 2022 achieved significant successes on the battlefield thanks to massive Western arms assistance, but from the beginning of 2023, the balance of power slowly shifted. It traveled towards Russia and the army of this country won successive victories in the eastern regions and inflicted heavy losses and damages on the Ukrainian army.
The main most reasons that make defeat the inevitable fate of Ukraine in the war include these is:
1- Ukraine’s inability to produce advanced weapons
The truth is that before the war, Ukraine had a much smaller economy than Russia. Before the war, Ukraine had a GDP of 200 billion dollars in 2021. This figure for Russia was 1,850 billion dollars. Russia’s high economic power has allowed this country to spend heavily on the military.
Although Moscow does not have an industrial economy, it should not be forgotten that Russia is the legacy of the huge military industry of the Soviet Union, which enables this country to produce weapons on a large scale. . From the very first days of the war, the Kremlin officials multiplied their weapons production capacity and Russian weapons factories were pumping these weapons to the battlefields around the clock.
In contrast, Kay IF has an economy based on agriculture. The green and fertile plains of Ukraine have become a place to supply Europe’s grain for years, and Kiev, due to its low economic power, has the ability to change its use to create huge factories for the production of weapons. It does not have the same as what Russia inherited from the Soviet Union. As a result, Ukraine does not have the domestic capacity to produce weapons and equip its own army like Russia, and Moscow has an absolute upper hand in this field.
Russia, whose economy has been likened by Western countries to a large gas station, earns hundreds of billions of dollars annually from the export of crude oil, gas, and precious metals such as gold. . This leaves the hands of the Kremlin authorities free to spend heavily on the military and gives this country more autonomy than Ukraine to strengthen its military infrastructure and produce weapons on a large scale. This is despite the fact that Kiev, with its economy dependent on agriculture, cannot compete with Moscow in this field.
2- Manpower shortage
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, 15 different countries were formed from this collapse, and Ukraine was one of these countries. Ukraine is one of the strangest countries in the world in terms of human population. At the time of independence in 1991, this country had a population of 52 million people, but until the war in 2021, its population was reduced due to reasons such as the decrease in the birth rate, as well as High immigration decreased to 44 million people.
The start of the war and the secession of Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine, including Zaprogya, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson During the Russian referendum in these regions in 2022, pseudo-separation The island of Crimea in 2014, as well as the massive flight of war-torn people to European countries, has reduced the current population of Ukraine to 37 million people. All these events have one meaning following: Ukraine does not have enough military force for the war fronts.
based on estimates of the average age of people in the Ukrainian army fighting against Russia It has been 44 years from a military point of view, which shows the age of the army of this country. At the same time, due to the lack of reserve forces, the government of Ukraine does not have the ability to give rest to the fighting forces, and now some of the soldiers of this country have been continuously in the battlefields for the last 33 months, and this is due to the depletion of the forces. Humanity has fueled the army.
On the other hand, Russia has a population of 144 million people (not including the population of Russian descent in the newly annexed regions of Ukraine). Russia’s larger population than Ukraine’s allowed Kremlin officials to call for general mobilization for the first time since World War II to call up more than half a million people to serve in the war. In addition to a powerful army with sufficient military forces, Russia has military contractors such as the Wagner group, which provides this country with the necessary manpower for the battlefields. .
3- Ukraine’s dependence on the West
Although now Western countries accuse Russia of receiving weapons and manpower from countries like North Korea, but the truth is that the balance of power in the war is completely has traveled to Russia and Kremlin officials do not need foreign support. Moscow has enough manpower for the battle fronts and produces advanced weapons such as Sukhoi fighters and smart bombs on a large scale.
Now the war in Ukraine has become a war of attrition. In the military field, in wars of attrition, what is known as the god of war is the power of artillery. Russia has vastly greater production capacity for artillery unit shells and more fire-carrying chariots. This issue gives the Russian army the ability to fire more fire on the battle fronts and impose heavy casualties on the Ukrainian army.
On the other hand, the IF due to the weak economy and inability to produce advanced weapons, depends Has a complete military to the west. In fact, Ukraine is not able to face the great power of the Russian army without Western military support. Ukraine’s air defense unit is fully funded by the West, and widespread drone and missile attacks have depleted the country’s air defense. Dependence on the West in the provision of weapons has made the Ukrainian Air Force completely surrender the skies to Russian fighters and defense capabilities. In the production of artillery weapons AI, the YEF has a strong weakness and the military power of artillery span style=”text-a..”>A Russia is estimated to be between 5 and 10 times the power of artillery A Ukraine.
The truth is that although Western countries sent a large flood of various weapons to Ukraine in 2022, the long and erosiveness of the war reduced their desire for more aid. has destroyed Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States of America, has repeatedly criticized financial aid and weapons to Ukraine during his election campaign and has promised to end this war immediately. This means that when Trump enters the White House on January 20, the West should no longer expect generous arms shipments from the West.
It should also be said about European countries, these countries are taking free-riding from America in the NATO organization, and even if they want, military power They do not have enough to support Ukraine in the war of attrition with Russia. After the end of the Cold War, Europe itself has become a burden for the United States and has imposed enough of its security costs on Washington, and these countries cannot be expected to provide significant support without the United States. justify”>if
supply.
4- Russian nuclear deterrence
NATO’s expansion to Russia’s borders is considered a serious security threat from the Kremlin’s point of view, and Moscow views this issue as a threat to its existence. When a country considers an issue as a threat to its existence, it means that it will not consider any limits in using its military power to eliminate that threat.
Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Although nuclear weapons are classified in the category of weapons not to be used, when an existential threat endangers a state, the nuclear doctrine will authorize its use. The situation becomes more dangerous for Yev when we know that this country does not have nuclear weapons and Moscow does not face the risk of retaliation if it uses nuclear weapons against this country. /p>
based on the military strategy of mutual assured destruction, if both If the conflicting country has nuclear weapons, they will not use these weapons due to the devastating consequences of these weapons for the attacker and the defender. However, now Russia as one of the parties to the conflict has nuclear weapons and Ukraine does not. As a result, Kremlin officials have the ability to think about the use of nuclear weapons without worrying about the inevitable destruction of the parties.
In fact, Ukraine had thousands of nuclear warheads after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but Western countries and Russia, to prevent nuclear proliferation, removed these weapons in the 1990s. They took it from this country. John Mearsheimer, the leader of offensive realism, was the only Western thinker who opposed the nuclear disarmament of Ukraine because he believed that Russia might invade this country in the future and Nuclear deterrence can save Yev from the sting of Moscow.
Conclusion
Russia does not need to use nuclear weapons because of the upper hand in the Ukraine war. The expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders is considered a threat to the existence of this country from the point of view of the Kremlin, and if Moscow were to suffer defeat in this war, the use of nuclear weapons would be one of the most serious /span> The options on the table were changed.
The high economic power of Russia compared to Ukraine, the suitable population of this country to provide manpower for the war, as well as the huge military industry left over from the Soviet Union, which allowed Moscow It gives the production of weapons of extraordinary extraordinary dimensions, and ultimately nuclear deterrence, causing the rotation The complete balance of power in the Ukraine war is in favor of Russia is The inevitable fate of Ukraine in this war is nothing but defeat, but what will determine the depth of this defeat will be the passage of time.
