What will happen to the Syrian oil fields after the fall of Assad? Participation of international actors

Mehr News, International Group: After the fall of Assad, The issue of energy and oil fields in Syria has become very important, and the energy field in this country is tied to geopolitical developments and the interests of actors in this country.

The most important oil regions Syria

Oil exploration in Syria began in 1933 when the Iraqi Oil Company discovered oil fields in Kirkuk. The first commercial flow of Syrian oil was in 1956. In 1958, the General Department of Petroleum Affairs was established to carry out exploration and production, refining, transportation and purchase of petroleum products. In 1964, the Baath Party banned foreign companies from exploration and investment permits. According to the statistics of 2016, Syria’s oil reserves are two billion five hundred million barrels. Syria is in the 31st category of countries with oil resources.

Oil and gas reserves in Syria are mainly located in the eastern part of Deir Ezzor province, near the border with Iraq and along the Euphrates River, and a number of smaller energy fields are also located in are located in the center of this country. In Haske province, Remilan, Sodiye and Krachuk oil fields are the main oil and gas production fields. There are also 1,322 oil wells and 25 gas wells in this area.

These fields are connected by pipelines to the Syrian Homs refinery. In 2012, the Syrian central government lost effective control over the country’s oil fields, which are located near the border with Iraq and east of Homs. Global energy statistics published by the London-based Energy Institute showed the daily production of Syrian oil in 2023 to be 40,000 barrels. In the early 2000s, Syria produced more than 600,000 barrels per day, which was comparable to Azerbaijan or Egypt.

The importance of controlling the oil areas of Syria

Oyton Orhan, a specialist in Middle East studies at Orsam think tank (ORSAM), believes that “Syria has limited energy resources.” The important point here is the geopolitical situation of Syria. “If we consider the situation in Syria, whoever controls this country will have great power over the region.” In this sense, the importance of controlling oil resources in Syria in the absence of a central government is most important for the Kurds and the United States. According to a report by the Chatham House think tank, in 2019, the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Forces (SDF) control about 70% of Syria’s oil fields.

Kurds dominate most of the oil resources in Deir ez-Zor and Haskeh and use it to meet the needs of the controlled areas. There are also confirmed reports that the SDF sold crude oil to the Damascus government in 2019-2024 in exchange for oil derivatives and cash. Oil in Kurdish-dominated areas is considered as the key to daily life in this region. There are about 1,500 traditional oil refineries in this region. The main problem of oil resources in this region is the occasional explosions in oil and gas pipelines, which has highlighted the role of oil tankers.

Besides the Kurds, the US is the most important player in Syria’s oil fields. Since 2015, the United States has expanded its control over the oil regions of Turkey, including in the north of the country, in the form of the anti-ISIS coalition. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Jonathan Roth Hoffman said during a press conference in November 2019, “Oil field revenue does not go to the United States, it goes to the Syrian Democratic Forces.” In Syria, the US mission is not in this country; The mission is to defeat ISIS. Securing the oil fields is a task of this mission.”

for example in the year 2018 when When the Russian-backed Wagner forces invaded Deir Ezzor to take control of the Konico gas facilities, they were met with heavy US airstrikes. He tried to strengthen his position in the region by occupying Syrian oil fields slow In fact, the presence of Russia in the region and the establishment of a base in the Mediterranean is a fundamental reason for the presence of America in this region.

What groups will be on the well in the future

What groups will dominate the Syrian oil wells in the northern and central regions in the future is of considerable importance. Due to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government and the reduction of the influence of his allies, the American-Kurdish axis and Türkiye are the most important players in this field. In other words, it can be said that in the shadow of the internal developments in Syria, the predictions are more in the direction that the power and influence of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Forces, which are supported by the United States and also now control 80% of the country’s oil fields, will increase. slow Warren Monet, an oil analyst, said in an interview with Forbes magazine that with the support of the United States, the efforts to continue taking control of the oil wells by the Syrian Democratic Forces will increase.

There are two approaches regarding the continued presence of America in this region. Some people, like Monet, predict that the US will maintain a military presence in these areas with the aim of continuing to use Syrian oil. Others consider Trump’s exit agenda to be stable in this period as well and believe that with Trump’s election, the United States may not have the motivation to support the Kurds. In 2019, Trump also threatened to withdraw the United States from Syria, but in the end he agreed to keep some American forces in Syria on the condition of maintaining the export of Syrian oil.

Turkey is another actor, especially because of its support for Tahrir al-Sham, there is a possibility that it will dominate the oil wells of Syria. On the other hand, Ankara is one of the opponents of the Syrian Kurdish groups and especially the Kurdish democratic forces. This is also an excuse for Türkiye to intervene in Syria. Therefore, it is possible to seek control over the oil fields of this country in the Kurdish regions by abusing the new conditions in Syria. Most importantly, it is likely that Turkey will reach agreements with groups based in oil-rich areas such as Afrin, thereby escalating the conflict over the oil fields in Deir ez-Zor and Haskeh. The point that made the issue more complicated is the cooperation of the Syrian Democratic Forces with Tahrir al-Sham in the fall of the Assad government.

Result

Intertwined conditions, especially the relationship between the Kurdish groups in northern Syria, the direct presence of the United States and its role in supporting the Kurdish groups, and the presence of Turkey as the main sponsor of the delegation. Tahrir al-Sham, who played the main role in the fall of the Assad government, says that the control over energy resources will affect the geopolitical arrangement of the actors in Syria.

Sajad Moradi Kalardeh; Researcher of international relations