Predicting the increase in US inflation in 2025
reported by Mehr News Agency, based on Bloomberg’s latest monthly survey of economists, the annual personal consumption expenditure price index, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories. , in the next year on average 2.5 The percentage will increase. This forecast for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure is higher than the 2.3 percent forecast in last month’s survey.
While economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, they expect just three more quarter-point rate cuts in March, June and September. It will happen in 2025. By the end of 2025, the federal funds rate is expected to be in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%.
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, says import tariffs are a big concern, although some factors, including substitution for American-made products and a strong dollar help mitigate this effect. However, the living standards of American consumers will be depressed and American exporters will suffer from retaliatory measures. Accordingly, higher inflation and a slower growth environment seem likely.
Although recent business surveys report a sharp increase in optimism about President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, including a lighter regulatory burden, other elements such as higher tariffs and tax cuts are driving demand. , have the risk of keeping inflation high.
Bloomberg’s latest survey of 83 economists, conducted from Dec. 11-16, also showed upward revisions to first-quarter import growth, reflecting an expected scramble by some companies to stockpile and fill The stockpiling comes ahead of tariff hikes and the prospect of a strike at ports on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico early next year.
Forecasters largely kept their 2025 employment forecasts unchanged, with growth estimated at an average of 121,000 jobs, compared with 126,000 jobs the previous month. Economists also raised the average economic growth forecast for 2025. Forecasts see GDP growth averaging 2.1 percent in 2025, up from last month’s forecast of 2 percent.
