Tapi and IPI duel in the field of power and energy; Shanghai and the need to use new opportunities in the energy field

Mehr News, International Group: The importance of gas transmission in Global geopolitics, especially in South and Central Asia, has been one of the main foci of energy developments in recent decades. Meanwhile, transnational and international gas pipeline projects such as TAPI and IPI are not only designed to meet the energy needs of target countries, but also act as geopolitical power levers. Iran, as one of the largest holders of gas reserves in the world, has a special position in this competition.

In a situation where regional, security, financial problems, international sanctions and American pressures have hindered the progress of these projects, but the increasing need for energy and significant financial gains from The implementation of these lines has caused the countries that benefit from its export, import or transit to always look for solutions for the operationalization and realization of these energy lines.

Based on the foundations of the geopolitical theory of energy, it can be said that energy as a strategic resource plays a decisive role in the distribution of global power. Energy transmission routes, such as pipelines, can strengthen countries’ bargaining power and their role in the international system. Undoubtedly, these pipelines can also increase the regional power of source and even beneficiary countries in competition with other countries.

According to the regional and international developments, the increasing need for energy and the strengthening and economic development of countries and the experiences of implementing energy lines in the world, the operation of two TAPI gas lines And IPI has faced various questions. Currently, what are the conditions of the two mentioned pipelines, and according to the existing obstacles and opportunities, which one is more likely to be completed and implemented? Has Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization opened new opportunities and horizons for Iran’s diplomacy and regional power and energy? What positive consequences will the operationalization of the IPI pipeline bring to Iran, and what solutions are there for the Iranian authorities to realize this pipeline?

In the following note, the author answers the above questions based on economic and international theoretical foundations and according to the experiences of the process of creating similar transnational energy lines in the world. .

Tapi Pipeline

Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, known as the TAPI line, with the aim of transporting 33 billion cubic meters of gas annually from the Galkinish gas field of Turkmenistan to India and Pakistan, is one of the Ambitious energy projects in the region. This pipeline is supposed to be 1814 kilometers, from Afghanistan, as a country that in the past few decades, It has been involved in severe political and security instabilities, crossed and finally reached Pakistan and India. The idea of ​​this project dates back to 1997 It goes back to when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan, but the construction of this pipeline started on December 15 2015 It started from Turkmenistan and according to the plan it was supposed to last until the year 2019 to end, which remains undecided due to various problems.

Tapi pipeline obstacles and problems

Security issues

Afghanistan, especially provinces such as Helmand and Kandahar, which are on the route of this pipeline, have been the focus of activities of militant groups such as the Taliban. Although the Taliban has declared its support for the mentioned project after coming to power, the existence of internal differences in this group and the possibility of the activities of opposition groups such as ISIS are still constant threats to it. For example, in 2018, attacks against project workers and infrastructure were reported in southern Afghanistan. It is natural that such threats have made investors very hesitant about this line.

Financial challenges

According to the reports of experts, it is estimated that the implementation of the TAPI project will cost about 10 billion dollars. The member countries of the project, especially Afghanistan and Pakistan, are unable to finance their respective sectors due to internal economic crises. Also, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which is one of the main financial sponsors of the project, has made its support dependent on the improvement of Afghanistan’s security conditions. At the same time, the financial problems in Pakistan have made this country rely more on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) sources from Qatar and other countries.

India-Pakistan tensions

The long-standing rivalry and political tensions between India and Pakistan are one of the key obstacles to the implementation of the Tapi gas line. These tensions have not only reduced the technical cooperation between these two countries, but also made it possible to use the TAPI project as a tool to exert political pressure. For example, some Indian officials opposed to the project did not attend some meetings related to the project, despite previous agreements, because they were worried that the Pakistanis would use the Tapi line as a lever for regional influence.

Topi and a big challenge

Despite all the above obstacles and problems, again, the Taliban is looking for its implementation and operation due to the benefits it can get from TAPI and has promised to It can provide security issues for the implementation of this pipeline. This situation has put an important and challenging question in front of experts and investors. Everyone wants to know to what extent they can count on the promises of the Taliban, and to put it more simply, can the Taliban really stick to their promises and ensure the security of this energy line during its implementation and long-term operation?

Taliban’s ability to secure the TAPI pipeline is a very important and challenging question for which it is difficult to give a definite and single answer. This complexity has various reasons, but nevertheless, examining the issue from different dimensions can lead us to some points and results that make it possible to answer the mentioned question to a large extent.

Rapid changes in the situation in Afghanistan: the security, political and economic situation in Afghanistan is very variable and considering that the implementation of TAPI depends largely on stability and stable security in Afghanistan, makes any long-term prediction in this regard difficult.

History of Unrest and Instability: Afghanistan has seen severe conflicts and ongoing unrest in the past few decades. Even after the Taliban came to power, there are still security threats from the opposition groups.

Structural weakness: The Taliban government is still facing serious challenges in terms of government structure, economic management and security. Even the Taliban still needs to establish stability and security in order to be recognized by the international community and attract foreign investment.

Lack of transparency in the Taliban’s decisions: the Taliban’s approach to many issues is not clear, and this, on the other hand, complicates the assessment of their ability to secure a large project like TAPI. builds and on the other hand weakens the confidence of investors.

Dependence on external factors: The success of the TAPI project depends to a large extent on the support and cooperation of regional and international countries, and considering that each country also has its own national interests. follows up, it is not possible to have complete confidence in the support of other countries for this project.

Financial dependence: The Taliban needs the income from projects like TAPI to finance itself. This dependence can make them vulnerable to internal and external pressures, a matter that even questions the existence and operationalization of the project.

Lack of experience in managing large projects: The Taliban does not have enough experience in managing large and complex projects such as the TAPI pipeline, a matter that has serious doubts among investors and operators. does.

With the above conditions, issues and reasons, it is highly possible that the Taliban will not be able to secure the TAPI pipeline, which causes other issues and The conditions, whether they were or not, are not important or valid. Some may believe that, despite all these conditions, it is still not possible to comment with certainty on the ability of the Taliban to secure the TAPI pipeline, but considering that this issue depends on several factors, some of which are not under the control of the Taliban. It can be said that the risks associated with this project are still very high and it is impossible to hope and encourage its operation at least in the future of Nasdaq, a condition that makes executives and investors be more cautious. And don’t enter the field so easily.

IPI Pipeline

But in front of TAPI, there is the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline known as the IPI line with the aim of transferring gas from the huge South Pars field to Pakistan and India. It is considered one of the most economical energy projects in the region. This pipeline with a length of about 2,700 kilometers, which is also known as the peace pipeline, can be a source of stable income for Iran, in addition to meeting the energy needs of the target countries. But despite the technical and economic benefits of this project for Iran, this pipeline has been stopped for many years.

IPI Pipeline Issues

American pressures and sanctions

The economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States have been one of the main obstacles to the implementation of this project. These sanctions have not only prevented the transfer of advanced technologies to Iran, but also discouraged other countries, especially Pakistan, from investing in this project. For example, in 2013, under pressure from the United States, Pakistan was forced to reduce its activities in the mentioned project and even faced the threat of sanctions from the United States.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) competition

One ​​of the other important reasons for reducing Pakistan and India’s desire for IPI is the competition of imported liquefied gas. Qatar and America, as the main suppliers of LNG, have been able to capture the markets of these countries by offering more attractive contracts. For example, in 2019, India signed a long-term agreement with Qatar to import LNG worth billions of dollars.

Of course, these issues can be understood and confirmed according to the basics of game theory. Game theory examines strategic decisions between multiple actors. In this context, countries as actors evaluate the costs and benefits of entering or not entering the project.

India and Pakistan are in a situation where cooperation in the IPI project is economically beneficial for both countries, but historical mistrust and strategic costs (such as concerns about gas cuts) ) prevents this cooperation. In the American pressure on Pakistan and the threat of sanctioning this country, in fact, the US is trying to change the country’s decision to enter the IPI project through the threat of sanctions and increasing costs for Pakistan.

IPI and TAPI duel in the power and energy field

As ​​explained, both IPI and TAPI pipelines have their own conditions, but now, an important question for energy experts, investors and activists. There is that, according to the existing conditions, which of the above lines have better conditions to be operational. In other words, which of the two countries, Iran and Turkmenistan as gas exporters or Iran and Afghanistan as Pakistan’s energy suppliers, will win the power field in the IPI and TAPI duel? If we want to answer the mentioned question, we have to compare IPI and TAPI lines, to know which one has better conditions to be operational at the moment. In this regard, you should pay attention to the following points.

Route Security

The IP route goes through relatively more secure areas compared to TAPI. TAPI’s passage through Afghanistan, which is known as one of the most challenging regions in the world in terms of security, has made its implementation difficult. On the other hand, the IPI route from Iran reaches Pakistan’s Balochistan, which, although it has its own security problems, has better conditions compared to Afghanistan, and it is possible to manage it more easily.

Political differences

Although both projects are affected by disputes between India and Pakistan, IPI stands a better chance because it is less dependent on cooperation between the two countries, especially in the early stages. to perform. Iran can export its gas to Pakistan first, and if India is willing, it can also add this country to the project.

Infrastructure

A notable point about the IPI pipeline, unlike the TAPI, is that Iran has completed most of the infrastructure needed for the IPI pipeline inside its own territory. This issue will reduce additional costs for the partner countries and the implementation of the project will be done in a shorter time.

Iran and Pakistan, from the past to the present

Now that the IPI line, unlike TAPI, has better conditions to be operational, what becomes more important than other things, the relations between Iran and Pakistan is.

These two countries with deep cultural and religious commonalities have a long history of bilateral cooperation. The long common border of these two countries in the Makran region has provided huge potentials for the expansion of economic cooperation. Projects such as the Peace Pipeline, maritime communications in the Gulf of Gwatar, and joint membership and cooperation in the ECO and Shanghai Organizations are proof of these cooperations.

In the foreign policy of the two countries, the neighbors have gained double importance in recent years. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran emphasizes on “preference of the neighbor over the distance”, the martyred president emphasized the importance of the neighbors in his foreign policy in his thoughts and actions, and the current president also emphasizes this importance twice. On the other hand, Pakistan is also looking for closer cooperation with Iran in various fields, based on the “peaceful neighborhood” strategy proposed in 2020 by the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad. On the other hand, due to its large population and ever-increasing need for energy, Pakistan is considered a suitable complement to the economy of its neighbor, Iran.

Both countries seek to expand trade, investment and cooperation in the field of energy and turn the common border into a prosperous and developed region. It was May of this year that at the end of the visit of the martyred president of our country to Pakistan, the two countries issued a 28-point joint statement emphasizing the need to try to further expand commercial and economic cooperation and transform the common border of the two countries from a “border of peace” to a “border of prosperity”. They did.

The presidents of the two countries, in their joint statement, many of its articles, such as 6, 7, 15, 16 and 25, were economic, emphasizing historical and cultural relations. , religious and civilizational of the two neighboring and Muslim countries, on their commitment to further strengthen these links, further expand commercial and economic cooperation, accelerate the finalization of the free trade agreement, strengthen cooperation in connection sectors, develop infrastructure, increase cooperation in the field Energy, including electricity trade, energy transmission lines and the IPI gas pipeline project, and the cooperation of the two countries in all the mechanisms of regional organizations, including ECO and Shanghai, were emphasized.

The above conditions indicate that Iran-Pakistan relations are based on cultural and economic commonalities, and despite the challenges, there are many potentials for expanding cooperation between these two countries. which have an agenda to increase interaction with each other. Currently, the efforts of both countries for closer cooperation with their neighbors, on the one hand, and Iran’s new and permanent membership in the Shanghai Organization, which has created a new and stronger platform for joint cooperation between the two countries, on the other hand, have a bright future for the relations between the two countries. The country promises.

Shanghai Organization and a new platform for the realization of IPI

The country of Iran has recently become a permanent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which has now become the largest and most populous international regional organization, and now it is a significant opportunity for our country in It has been created in the direction of utilizing the capacities of this organization in the field of energy, and probably one of the reasons for our country’s proposal to form an energy hub among the member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which in the recent visit of Araqchi and his meeting with The new Secretary General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was also followed up and emphasized on its implementation, that was the issue. But the question is, how can Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Organization help advance the IPI line?

Strengthening relations with Pakistan

Pakistan is also one of the member countries of the Shanghai Organization and Iran can use the platform of this organization to increase political and economic interactions with this country and reduce the effectiveness of American pressures and sanctions. . Holding joint meetings under the Shanghai framework can reduce American pressure and encourage Pakistan to continue cooperation in the IPI project.

Support China

China, as one of the key powers in Shanghai and Iran’s economic partner, which will also hold the rotating presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2025, can finance the project. , providing the required technologies and encouraging Pakistan to support and work seriously in this project, play a special role. Of course, considering that China needs sustainable energy sources, it may directly or indirectly help to advance the IPI project.

IPI’s economic, political and geopolitical achievements

The successful implementation of the IPI pipeline or the peace pipeline, can bring many positive economic, political and geopolitical achievements. From an economic point of view, the implementation of this pipeline will increase Iran’s revenues from gas exports, provide cheaper energy for Pakistan and India, and strengthen the economic infrastructure of the region.

From the political point of view, the creation of regional integration, the reduction of tensions between Iran and Pakistan, and the strengthening of Iran’s relations with South Asian countries can be seen as other positive consequences of the implementation of the IPI line.

As ​​the importance of international economic cooperation in reducing political tensions has been pointed out and emphasized in the theory of Complex Interdependence, in the era of globalization, economic interests It can overcome political conflicts, cooperation between Iran, Pakistan and India in the field of energy will increase economic interdependence and can reduce political tensions.

The implementation of this pipeline is very important for Iran, even from a geopolitical point of view. Increasing regional power and Iran’s influence in the global energy market and reducing regional countries’ dependence on alternative sources are among the most important things that can be achieved by implementing this transnational line.

The emphasis on this important and positive point can be proven and confirmed based on the theory of balance of power. Based on the theory that countries try to use their economic and political power to change the balance of regional power in their favor, in the competition between Iran and Turkmenistan to supply gas to Pakistan, Iran can gain a superior geopolitical position by providing cheaper gas and a shorter route. strengthen yourself.

Global experiences in the implementation of international pipelines

For the topic of energy transmission through transnational pipelines, there are many similar cases in the world, and the experiences of these projects can be used to better understand the challenges and provide appropriate solutions. . In the following, the author examines several key cases in order to provide logical solutions for the success of the IPI pipeline according to their experiences in the measures they used to remove the obstacles.

Failed experiments

Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline:

This pipeline, which aims to transfer Turkmen gas to Europe through the Caspian Sea, is facing obstacles due to legal and geopolitical problems with various countries, including Russia and Iran. has been seriously faced. Russia’s opposition to any pipeline that threatens its energy interests, issues with the Caspian Sea borders, and security concerns have been among the main obstacles and challenges of this pipeline. The pipeline is still fully operational due to numerous obstacles. It hasn’t happened, but they are still investigating and negotiating to find alternative solutions.

Sakhalin-Kuwait Pipeline

This project aimed to transfer natural gas from Russia to Kuwait and other countries in the Middle East. However, technical problems and political differences between the countries, especially regarding supply Financial and permission to Russia to use the land of intermediate countries like Iraq and Iran prevented the progress of this project and finally, due to political and economic pressures, this project was stopped and did not continue.

Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP)

This pipeline was also one of the big and ambitious projects designed to transfer natural gas from Nigeria in West Africa, through Niger, to Algeria and then to Europe. became. Despite its high economic potential, this project has not yet been implemented. The Sahel and Niger region has always been faced with the extensive activities of terrorist and rebel groups, which has hindered the progress of this project as security problems. Financial problems and the estimated cost of about 13 billion dollars of the project, the difficulty of attracting foreign investment due to the high risk and the geopolitical pressures of gas competing countries, such as Russia and some European players, prevented the successful implementation of this gas pipeline.

successful experiences

Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipeline

This pipeline, which transports Turkmenistan’s gas to China through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, has been put into operation as a successful project. This project also faced geopolitical and economic challenges such as disputes with Russia regarding gas transmission and issues related to financing and infrastructure projects, but with the financial support of China and the resolution of legal and commercial disputes, this pipeline was finally put into operation. This success shows that large energy projects can be promoted and put into operation with an international cooperation model and foreign financial resources.

West Pipeline – Russia to Europe

The project, also known as “Nord Stream”, will transport Russian natural gas to Germany via the Baltic Sea. This pipeline, with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, is one of the most important strategic projects in Europe. This project faced political and economic challenges such as the opposition of the United States and some European countries who were concerned about Europe’s greater dependence on Russian energy. In addition, sanctions pressures and environmental issues were also standing in the way of this project. But despite these obstacles, this project was finally put into operation in 2011 with agreements between Russia and the European Union. This project is an example of success in overcoming political and commercial challenges, which was done by focusing on diplomacy and international cooperation.

Erasian Pipeline – Kazakhstan to China

This pipeline transports gas from Kazakhstan to China and is one of the key projects for China’s energy supply from Central Asia. Economic problems and political differences between Kazakhstan, China and Russia regarding the distribution of resources and costs were among the main challenges of this project. In addition, environmental concerns and infrastructure problems along the route of this pipeline also added to the obstacles of the project. But despite the mentioned challenges, with the help of Chinese diplomacy and regional cooperation, this pipeline was put into operation in 2014. This success clearly shows the ability of developing countries to solve complex energy issues through economic and diplomatic cooperation.

TANAP pipeline (TANAP) – Turkey to Europe

The Trans-Anacolia Pipeline (TANAP) transports Azerbaijan’s natural gas to Europe via Turkey. This project is one of the key components of the “Southern Gas Corridor”, which aims to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. One of the main obstacles of this project was geopolitical issues in the Caucasus region and concerns about the security of energy supply in this region. Also, the differences between different countries regarding trade agreements and the distribution of gas resources were also among the other obstacles and challenges for the implementation of this line. But despite these challenges, the Tanap project was successful and opened in 2018. The financial and political support of the European Union and the strategic cooperation between Türkiye, Azerbaijan and other countries in the region made this project complete.

Lessons learned from global experiences

According to what happened in the implementation of transnational and international pipelines in the past and the successful and failed experiences in the implementation of these projects, the following 5 conclusions can be reached;

1. Regional security: Projects that have been implemented in unstable regions (such as Afghanistan or Nigeria) have been able to succeed only by strengthening security.

2. Economic diplomacy: Multilateral economic cooperation, especially with the help of regional organizations such as Shanghai, can reduce political resistance and help the completion and success of projects.

3. Multinational participation: financing through international consortia or financial institutions such as the World Bank can help reduce risks.

4. Public and environmental participation: Addressing local and environmental concerns can accelerate the implementation of projects.

5. Development of infrastructure: Countries facing the problem of lack of infrastructure should benefit from the technical and financial assistance of partners for development.

Gas pipeline projects worldwide have all faced their own obstacles and challenges, but in many cases, these projects have been successful through diplomatic efforts, multilateral cooperation, The provision of financial resources and the use of advanced technologies have been exploited. Especially in projects that are in unstable regions and under geopolitical tensions, such as Afghanistan or West Asian countries, strong political agreements and international support are often needed to remove obstacles.

Therefore, projects like IPI and even TOPI require smart diplomacy, international financial support and management of security and political challenges. Successful experiences such as Nord Stream or Turkmenistan-China show that despite serious obstacles, these projects can be implemented, although under certain conditions that depend on strategic cooperation and regional diplomacy.

Iranian officials’ agenda

But in the end, according to the existing conditions and world experiences, the final and important question is that, currently, the Iranian officials, in order to advance and complete the IPI project, What actions should they take? According to the author, the Iranian authorities should put several actions on their agenda as soon as possible and follow them seriously.

At first, more active diplomacy with Pakistan should be put on the agenda. Iran should use the opportunities and capacities of bilateral cooperation, Shanghai and economic and political tools to encourage Pakistan to continue cooperation and work seriously in this project. On the other hand, Iranian officials should plan and take the necessary measures to use the capacity of their strategic ally China in this project. On the one hand, Iran can use China’s influence in Pakistan to encourage and persuade them to participate and support the IPI line, and on the other hand, follow up on attracting Chinese investment in this project.

Based on the Hegemonic Stability Theory, which emphasizes the superior power in the international system, as a factor of economic stability and facilitating the implementation of large projects, China As an emerging power, by investing in energy and becoming a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it can facilitate regional stability and the realization of the IPI project. Regarding the management of American sanctions and pressures, the Iranian authorities should plan and take the necessary measures with active diplomacy and use all their legal and economic capacities to reduce the impact of sanctions.

Conclusion

In the end, it should be said that the implementation of the IPI pipeline, despite various obstacles, is considered an important and strategic opportunity for Iran, which due to the preparation of new conditions and platforms, Iranian officials should use similar international experiences and take advantage of multilateral diplomacy, regional and international capacities such as ECO and Shanghai organizations and active interaction with the target countries, this project as one of Put their strategic priorities seriously on the agenda so that by winning the TAPI and IPI duel in the field of power and energy, once again and in another field, they will raise the proud flag of our beloved Iran.

Saeed Seifi; Analyst of strategic issues