The bright shadow of “Jouf Aoun”; What are the challenges facing the new president of Lebanon?
Mehr News Agency, Bin Group International: After two and a half years of political deadlock in Lebanon, General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese army, was finally elected as the new president of this Arab country. Despite Washington-Riyadh’s significant support for this political figure to become the new resident of Baabda Palace, it seems that a kind of “relative consensus” has been formed among various Lebanese political parties for his selection. The former commander of the Lebanese army, as a nationalist and non-partisan figure, has a legacy of a lot of domestic and foreign problems that if no effective action is taken to solve them, the possibility of social-political collapse in Lebanon is not a far-fetched option.
Approaches
General Joseph Aoun, with his considerable military background and long experience in commanding the Lebanese army, is likely to adopt a “security-oriented” approach to running the country. His experience in managing security crises and maintaining the country’s stability, such as the Daesh sedition in 2017, can be considered as an advantage in the current complex situation of Lebanon. As the commander of the army, he has always tried to maintain this institution as a unifying and supra-tribal force. This approach can continue in the position of president and help to strengthen national unity. Also, his deep understanding of regional security issues and internal and external threats can lead to the adoption of more effective policies in dealing with security challenges.
In the field of foreign policy, General Aoun will probably adopt a more “balanced” and “pragmatic” policy. The experience of cooperation with international forces and a deep understanding of the geopolitical complexities of the region can lead to adopting a more realistic approach in foreign relations. He will probably try to establish constructive relations with regional and international powers while maintaining Lebanon’s independence. Managing relations with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf will be one of his main challenges. Also, attracting international support to help the economic reconstruction of Lebanon will be one of the main priorities of his foreign policy.
In the economic field, General Aoun’s management experience in the army can be useful in facing the current economic crisis in Lebanon. He is likely to focus on structural reforms, fighting corruption and improving the efficiency of government institutions. His systematic and organized approach can be effective in implementing the economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund and the world community. Rebuilding the banking sector, restoring the value of the national currency and attracting foreign investment will be the main economic challenges that require careful planning and regular implementation. General Aoun’s most important challenge in domestic politics will be the management of Lebanon’s political and religious diversity. Lebanon’s consensual political system requires special skills in building consensus and managing conflicting interests of different groups.
His experience in managing the military as an inclusive institution could be useful in this regard, but the challenges ahead will be much more complex. Managing relations with various currents, maintaining balance between political-religious groups and implementing structural reforms without creating social tensions, requires a combination of decisiveness and flexibility. His success in this field will largely depend on his ability to create national consensus and maintain political stability.
Challenges; From the economic crisis to the crisis of the inefficient government
Lebanon is currently facing one of the deepest economic crises in its contemporary history. The collapse of the Lebanese lira, rampant inflation and the collapse of the banking system will be serious challenges for General Aoun. Economic restructuring requires extensive structural reforms that can face resistance from interest groups. Attracting the trust of foreign investors and international financial institutions, in a situation where Lebanon’s financial reputation has been severely damaged, is considered a fundamental challenge. Also, the management of public debts and the reconstruction of economic infrastructure require significant financial resources, which will be very difficult to provide in the current situation. The complex political structure of Lebanon, which is based on the balance of power between religious and political groups, is considered a great challenge for the administration of the country.
General Aoun must balance the conflicting interests of different groups. The issue of Hezbollah and its role in the political and military structure of Lebanon is a sensitive challenge that requires intelligent management. As an undeniable reality in Lebanon’s political life, the resistance movement is under the most severe external pressure from the US and Arab countries. As a national figure, Aoun must protect Lebanon’s independence from external pressures. Also, the impact of regional developments on Lebanon’s internal security and the need to maintain stability on the borders with the occupied territories and Syria are other important and mentioned security challenges.
The economic crisis has caused a significant increase in poverty and inequality in Lebanon. Providing basic services such as electricity, water and medical services for citizens has become a serious challenge. The migration of elites and skilled labor puts additional pressure on the economy and society. Also, the presence of a significant number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon puts additional pressure on the social and economic infrastructure. Managing these social challenges in the context of limited financial resources requires careful planning and proper prioritization. Lebanon’s sensitive geopolitical position and its impact on regional rivalries is an important challenge for foreign relations management. General Aoun must balance relations with regional and international powers.
Bahre Sakhan
The “Bride of the Middle East” is facing one of the worst economic crises in its contemporary history. Creating a balance between different political and religious groups as well as maintaining Lebanon’s independence against regional pressures requires smart diplomacy and a delicate balance that is very difficult to achieve. Despite the existing challenges, there are also opportunities to improve the situation in Lebanon. The support of the international community and the willingness of Arab countries to help rebuild Lebanon can be an opportunity to attract capital and economic revival.
Recent discoveries of gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean could create a new source of income for Beirut. Also, administrative reforms and anti-corruption, if implemented successfully, can help restore public trust and improve economic conditions. The strategic position of Lebanon and the tourism and commercial potential of this country can also become an important source for economic growth in case of political and security stability.
