Repeating the victory of Shiite coalitions and intensifying the split of the Sunni sect in the provincial council elections of Iraq

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, according to the 2005 constitution, each province has a separate council. In general, this election has been held three times so far; The first round of Iraqi provincial council elections was held in January 2005. The second term in 2009 and the third term in 2013. But civil war, terrorism as well as internal disputes delayed the holding of the next term by 10 years. Also, since 2019, following the protests in October, the activities of all provincial councils were suspended based on the resolution of the parliament. It is determined during the provincial council elections. The main activity of the provincial council is to serve and develop the desired province, but according to Article 123 of the Constitution, the federal government of Iraq can delegate its powers to the provinces, which will increase the power of the provincial council and the governor in managing affairs.

Another issue that increases the importance of Iraqi provincial council elections is “climatization”; According to Article 119 of the Constitution, if one-third of the members of the provincial council request or one-tenth of the eligible population of a province to become a province, the federal government will be obliged to hold a referendum on the formation of a province in that province. If the approval of more than 50% of the population of the province is reached, new regions will be created like the region of Kurdistan. If a province becomes an autonomous region, provincial council elections will no longer be held, but local parliament elections will be held instead. With the results of the Basra elections, the climate hypothesis of this province is being strengthened.

Announcement of the results

The leaders of the Iraqi coordination framework who came with several lists after the announcement of the results They announced the formation of a joint faction at the house of Abu Hassan Al-Ameri, they managed to get at least 101 seats out of 285 seats in Shia and semi-Shia provinces, and therefore their victory is certain. This rare coordination by the Shia political forces means that the governors in the desired provinces will pass the coordination framework filter. This faction, which forms the largest winning coalition, except in the two provinces of Karbala and Basra, in the rest of the Shiite and semi-Shiite provinces, can appoint the desired governor through the parliament of that province, and in the event of the successful performance of any of the governors, the political victory in It will bring the Sunnis.

Asad al-Eidani, the governor of Basra who The formation of “Decision Coalition” was able to get 12 seats against the 10 seats of the coordination framework, it has the right power to become the governor of this province once again. Nasif al-Khattabi, the governor of Karbala province, was also able to get 7 seats against 5 seats by forming the “Karbala Innovation Coalition”, and his situation is the same as Asad Al-Eidani. Al-Aidani and Al-Khattabi, with their brilliant performance in the 6 and 4-year periods in Basra and Karbala provinces, were able to enjoy a prestigious position in the eyes of public opinion, which can affect their political performance in the future.

Tadegh Party led by “Mohammed Al-Halbousi”, the former speaker of the parliament, who has been over a month since the cancellation of his representative order, also managed to win a significant victory against other Sunni parties. The number of seats of his party in Baghdad is equal to the number of seats of the Nabani coalition led by Hadi al-Amiri (9 seats) or the government of law, Nouri al-Maliki (9 seats), despite the fact that this province is considered half-Shiite. In Anbar province, which is considered the main base of Halbousi, the Tohad party is in the first place with 7 seats, but it has a very shaky position because the coalition “Al-Anbar Hoytna” led by the governor of this province, Ali Al-Dulimi, who has recently found deep differences with Halbousi, has 3 seats. “Al-Siyadah Alliance” led by Khamis Al-Khanjar won 2 seats, Azm led by Mushani Al-Samrai 2 seats and Hasem led by Thabit Al-Abasi and Osama Al-Nujaifi won 1 seat, all of which are contenders for the first place. This means that these coalitions, by forming factions, can have 8 seats in front of the 7 seats of precedence, that is why the situation of this province is completely unknown and ambiguous.

Sanction of elections and non-participation

The Iraqi government announced the participation rate in the elections at 41%, but some observers compared to this figure due to the lack of accurate media coverage of the voting areas. They have legitimate doubts. The serious message of the low participation in the Iraqi provincial council elections should be considered as the illegitimacy of the agents and the existing structures, which were formed based on the coalition-oriented system. In the two parliamentary elections of 2021 and 2010, the coalition-based system was preferred over the majority votes, and some Iraqi citizens felt that their influence in the political mechanism was low, and the interests and lobbying of powerful parties had become decisive in this case. The loss of the social base of Iraqi politicians will bring unacceptability in the beginning and then illegitimacy, which will put the Iraqi parliamentary system to a tough test over time.

Ali Bidbo, expert on Iraq issues

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