Global changes a factor influencing future negotiations on Ukraine conflict
The Ukraine Conflict Is No Longer Just About Ukraine; Itâs a War Overâ theâ Future Global Order. The Choices Being Made Now Will Determine â¤Whether the Outcome âIs a Realignment orâ Long-term⤠Collapse.
Mehr News Agency, International âDesk: Ukrainian thinker Andriy Buzarov has sent â˘an exclusive article titled “Global âShifts as a Decisive factor in future â¤Negotiations to End âthe Ukraineâ Conflict” to mehr News Agencyâs International Desk. The full text â˘follows:
twoâ centuries ago, Carl von⢠Clausewitz â stated:â “War is the continuation⢠of politics by other means.” Since then, much⣠has changed in the world. â¤Today, the political behavior of â¤globalâ actors⢠isâ itself a continuation of warâa war waged through modern-era tools in the realm of ideas, economic âcompetition, and cyberspace.
The profound⤠shift of global economies toward theâ Fourth Industrial Revolution, dominated â¤by advanced computing technologies and new energy systems, has disrupted⣠customary âpower poles across demographics âand â˘finance. global South economies are â¤growing at an â˘accelerating pace, while former world⢠leadersânow mired in crisisârefuse to relinquish their positions.
If we align this technological transition⢠timeline with major military conflicts,â we⣠see âthey occur almost âsimultaneously.â During such periods,economies âŁface critical recessionsâand⢠ourâ era is no exception. The world stands on the brink⣠of a⢠global âeconomic⣠crisis, and key players sense â˘it. To survive,â they seek market âexpansion and geopolitical influenceâa â¤pattern âunchanged since humanityâs earliest transitions fromâ forests to plains â¤and primitive agriculture.
This trend is especially evident in societies with imperial â˘legacies: â¤
- China through its âBelt &⣠Road InitiativeâŁ
- Turkey expandingâ into theâ Middle⣠East â
- america via tariff wars
- Russia building âits sphereâ of influence
Their scramble for resources ahead âof hard times defines⣠their âŁinterests, political toolsâand clashes.
The New Great Game
Trump pursued “Great America” by⤠claiming Greenland â& Panama Canal rights while launching tariff wars against China + half the worldâpressuring Europe for human/tech resources extraction.
Britain intervenes in â¤Ukraine/Middle East seeking dominance âŁover Eastern Europe; Israel expands into â¤neighboring lands; Russiaâ builds itsâ “security⣠buffer zone”; âEU counters⣠Russian territorial/economic expansion.
These⣠factors turn Ukraine negotiations into an equation âŁwith countless⢠variables today: Russia/US aren’t negotiating Ukraine’s future⢠but debating the structure of a new world order. Key players include:
1)⤠Europe: In deep â¤crisis using Ukraine as leverage vs Russia + Trump’s “Great âŁAmerica”.â¤
2) China: Anticipating US market losses pivots toward â¤Europe (unacceptable to Washington).
3) Britain: Seeks Baltic-Poland-Romaniaâ influence via âIntermarium project.
Core Interests:
1) United â¤States
New US⤠doctrines declare “China, not Russia,” as âtopâ threat;⢠Trump shifts focus toward⣠Indo-Pacific â¤(Europe⤠deprioritized).
2) Russia
Aims preventing Eastern Europe â¤becoming Western military/economic containment bases seeks equal global powerâ status requiring neutrality/control over Eastern Europe âtoday Caucasus/central⢠Asia tomorrow sanctions lifted â˘for growth stability.
3) China
Preparing âŁpost-US conflict logistics Eurasian-wide exploiting EU âenergy shortages industrial âŁdecline acquiring tech âreplacing US investments expanding africa presence.
4) âŁEuropean Union
With fading US security guaranteesâ EU seeksâ new stability âtools Hungary/Slovakia defying Brussels â¤fuels fearsâ UK meddling destabilizes âpolicies.
Human Factors âInfluencing Conflict:
1) Trump needs tangible pre-election wins.
2) Kremlin wants conflict end â˘via â¤new security framework.
3) Zelensky regime heavily reliant on European/British partners.
Three Likely Scenarios for Ukraine:
1ď¸âŁ U.S Forces European âCompromise
Washington pressures EU/UK drop support Zelensky signs peace recognizing âannexations⢠hurdle Moscow may demandâ elections delegitimizing him
2ď¸âŁ U.S⤠Prioritizes Deal With⤠Russia Over⢠Kyiv
strategic pact announcedâ sanctions eased aid âcut⣠Ukrainian forces collapse without western arms lose more land âŁfaceâ harsher terms
3ď¸âŁ âU.S Retreats⣠â Europe Fights OnâŁ
Talks stall continued⢠EU/UK backing but weapons shortages manpower depletion âmerely âdelay Scenario #2 worst â¤outcome âcatastrophic losses infrastructure destruction western regions potentially voting join âPoland/Romania
Hidden Risk â¤Of⤠Scenario #3:
Prolonged defeatsâ could push Ukrainian officials/military toward destabilizing acts like reselling Western arms terrorists/criminals (reported analysts/intel âagencies).â Interpol chief JĂźrgen âstock warns black-market proliferation even SBU confirmed colonel sold US missiles Russians media reports weapons surfacing Turkey âSyria âetc â¤escalating âglobalâ terror threats conflict zones casualties â˘
Conclusion:
Most likely now? Scenario #1 âdespite White âHouse rhetoric talks continue least damaging path failed negotiations would inflame tensionsâ across Europe middle âEast South Caucasus⣠international community must⤠preventâ Scenario #3 second-most probable
Ukraineâs conflict no longer just about borders itâs âŁshaping tomorrowâs world order choices today decide between⣠negotiated âŁrealignment or protracted collapse⣠with worldwide⤠fallout
