Iraq Elections Viewed Through the Lens of Regional and International Power Rivalries
Mehr News Agency,International Desk: Iraq’s parliamentary elections scheduled for November 11 are not merely a domestic event to fill 329 seats in the Council of Representatives. They represent a complex arena where regional and international powers’ interests clash. This will be the sixth election since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, taking place amid internal challenges such as declining youth participation, corruption, and destructive political rivalries.
Iraq today is also shaped by shifting regional geopolitics. The status of the Axis of resistance-following events like the Gaza war, potential regime change threats in Syria, and tensions surrounding Lebanon’s third conflict-has positioned Iraq as one of its most crucial players against pressures from Washington and israel. This analysis explores how key rivalries between Iran and the US, Iran and Saudi Arabia/United arab Emirates (UAE), iran and Turkey, along with Israeli threats toward Iraq’s resistance groups, impact this pivotal election.
The 2025 Elections Amid Iran-US Rivalry
Following widespread protests and political crisis after the 2021 elections, Iraq returns with a proportional portrayal system across 18 electoral districts based on provinces. More than 7,768 candidates are competing under 31 coalitions and 38 parties. However, voter turnout is expected to drop below last time’s near-40% figure-possibly falling as low as 20%.
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani leads with his “Reconstruction and Development” coalition backed by the Shiite Coordination Framework-a group close to Tehran-and stands strong for continuing in power. The main contest appears set between Al Sudani himself versus former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Hadi al-Amiri.
Moqtada al-Sadr continues his boycott campaign like before last elections by urging supporters to abstain from voting-a move effectively benefiting Coordination Framework factions at large. The vote comes against fragile oil-based economy conditions compounded by water crises and ongoing ISIS security threats. Yet external contests remain decisive: rivalry between Iran and America sets much of this electoral battlefield.
The US keeps around 2,500 troops stationed officially but has initiated gradual withdrawals aimed through to approximately 2026 alongside pressuring efforts to disarm Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). Mark Saweidaa-the American special envoy-has emphasized an “autonomous Iraq free from malign Iranian influence.” Washington backs Al Sudani hoping he can assemble coalitions excluding groups aligned with resistance factions while concurrently tightening sanctions on PMF units alongside restricting banking relations linked to Tehran.
Conversely, Iran regards Iraq as its “strategic depth” unwilling to leave this natural ally vulnerable amid external threats. Tehran plays a role akin to a “benevolent older brother,” working towards reducing intra-Shiite faction disputes while encouraging unity that aims at post-election coalition-building for victory purposes.It supports separate Shiite lists designed to maximize seats but favors post-vote alliances among these groups for cohesion within coordination frameworks regardless of divisions formed during campaigns.
The unique position occupied by resistance forces makes Iraq an absolute priority; yet internal rifts within Coordination Framework contests such as Al Sudani versus Maliki may open up fresh openings for Iranian rivals – notably Washington-to capitalize politically.
The Sunni Brotherhood-Conservative Axis Seeks Balance Against Resistance
The election results hold great consequence: an Iranian-friendly government could hasten America’s exit while a pro-Western administration would restrict resistance influence.
Simultaneously occurring economic balancing efforts led chiefly by Saudi Arabia and UAE aim at countering Tehran through notable investments including infrastructure development projects or energy ventures.
Riyadh has supported Al Sudani acting as mediator with Tehran yet backs anti-iranian sunni-Kurdish coalitions electorally; meanwhile Abu Dhabi champions Mohammed al-halbusi’s Taqaddum movement alongside investments in Kurdistan Regional Government territory pushing economic competition vis-à-vis iran forward.
These countries view Iraqi territory crucially-as channels connecting them with post-Assad Syria-and consider these polls opportunities weakening Axis of Resistance forces politically.
Al Sudani garners popularity through navigating balance between Riyadh and Tehran but faces growing financial pressure via U.S.-imposed sanctions that nudge him westward politically.
Meanwhile Turkey strengthens its position mainly through military operations targeting PKK militants plus constructing dams over Tigris-Euphrates rivers enhancing Turkish leverage across Iraqi Kurdistan region.
Ankara openly supports Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) pushing into national-level water-energy issues seen as risky gambles heading into voting season.
Iran competes within Iraqi Kurdistan backing Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), adding complexity regarding votes there; KDP might negotiate oil deals directly Baghdad-bound though Ankara threatens deeper intervention if needed which polarizes Kurdish politics-forcing choices between independence aspirations or closer ties-and affects emerging post-election alliances broadly further complicating political equations nationwide.
The Shadow Of Israeli Threats Over Iraq
A recent phone conversation between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Iraqi counterpart featured explicit warnings underscoring American demands that Iraqi sovereignty should preclude active roles played by resistance groups regarding future regional developments reinforcing concerns about escalation risks emanating from Israel stretching attacks into Iraqi soil deployed prominently against Axis bases opposing Tel Aviv interests.
Israel views increasing missile-and-drone attacks sourced back mostly towards Kata’ib Hezbollah factions inside Iraq suspiciously aggressive marking heightened tension levels amidst upcoming polls says local analysts predict limited targeted airstrikes coupled alongside Israeli preventive strike warnings will influence voter behavior significantly those favoring stronger anti-resistance stances more so than usual.wrapper body IpIr Outlook
Should American-israeli initiatives succeed limiting militia operations inside Baghdad-politics sphere it could fuel intensified retaliation launching more frequent missile-drone strikes carried out simultaneously against Israel itself escalating cycle dramatically farther destabilizing region-wide security conditions particularly if fragile governments emerge vulnerable enough Tel aviv might extend operation zones explicitly encompassing parts inside Iraqi territory deepening instability overall further deteriorating already-fragile situation nationally regionally alike scattered violence stemming internally externally interconnected increasingly likely unfolding continuously before-and-after official vote returns finalized public announced formally.
Tакеwау
Recent claims by sources close Israeli security organs indicate Quds Force command arms various resistant groups operating throughout southern/ne amount well-established militiamen possibilities generating new ’fireline’ ahead eventually escalating confrontations vis-à-vis occupation entity beyond Lebanon/Yemen fronts likewise.
While Syria loses traction comparatively amid evolving axis chains, Tehran aims resurrect primary members revitalizing base resistive cells seeking synchronized multiple-theater pressure tactics targeting Israel rooted under policy umbrella known popularly internationally expositional ‘unification-of-fields.’
Reality remains firm that should former leaders Trump/Netanyahu attempt strategic structural shifts reshaping Middle East geopolitical landscape decisively, Iran together allies inevitably prepare existential battles settling stakes ultimately over survival itself contested bitterly across battlegrounds facing hostility unleashed profoundly affecting fate determining outcomes decisive achieving victories losses primarily tied closely insurgency network performances embedded across contiguous systems notably influential actors dwelling within contemporary realities posed strongly defining core dividing lines unfolding momentous struggles controlling next era trajectories throughout entire western Asia zone foreverafter impacting global balances far-reaching implications indisputably generated none other than throbbing vibrant electorals taking place deeply rooted localized sardines tight International contextual spheres accordingly assess implications prudently.@[русский][user]
