From Fasher to Kurdufan: Sudan Caught in Geopolitical Battle for Survival
Mashregh News Agency, International Desk: The Sudanese civil war that began in April 2023 has evolved into one of the most severe humanitarian crises of the 21st century. The conflict pits the Sudanese Army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti. According to United Nations reports,over 14 million people have been displaced nationwide-the largest population displacement worldwide.
The capture of El Fasher-the capital of North Darfur-by RSF forces on October 26,2025,after an 18-month siege marked not only a significant military victory for Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo but also symbolizes a possible fragmentation of Sudan into multiple autonomous regions.This advancement coincided with the withdrawal of Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), reshaping frontlines and pushing Sudan toward either stabilization or further escalation.Understanding this crisis requires looking beyond military events to explore its deep ancient, economic, and social roots.
Historical Roots of Sudan’s Current Crisis
Sudan stands among Africa’s most complex nations due to longstanding political and social structures rooted in colonial times and earlier eras. Muhammad Ali Pasha’s invasion in 1821 dismantled local kingdoms such as Funj and Sennar and established centralized governance.During the Mahdist period (1885-1899), limited localization efforts occurred; though, following Muhammad Ahmad’s death-the Mahdist leader-Anglo-egyptian occupation began (1899-1956). British policy enforced “closed districts,” segregating Arab-Islamic northern regions from Christian-African southern areas and planting seeds for ethnic conflicts.
After gaining independence in 1956, Sudan fell into cycles of coups and unstable governments. Southern rebellions starting in 1955 led to prolonged civil wars (1955-1972; 1983-2005). The secession of South Sudan in 2011 resulted in losing about 75% of oil revenue. additionally,the Darfur conflict beginning in 2003 along with kordofan and Blue Nile clashes between 2011-2020 empowered peripheral regions against khartoum’s central authority.Resource concentration around Khartoum created a center-periphery divide fueling unrest from marginalized areas.
The Capture of El Fasher and Possible Fragmentation
The RSF’s seizure of el Fasher brought approximately one-quarter of Sudan’s territory-darfur-under their control.This victory was accompanied by widespread civilian massacres due to SAF prioritizing defense around Khartoum and other key locations. Despite SAF regaining Khartoum by March 2025 thus enhancing its political legitimacy,their focus on central regions allowed RSF-with tribal militia backing-to solidify control over Darfur through external supply lines backed by gold revenues from Jebel Amir.
This shift has two dimensions: RSF has emerged as a parallel power structure proposing establishment plans including a “Peaceful Unity Government,” currency issuance,migration documents,and a population registry system.On another note,human rights violations escalated throughout Darfur with ethnic cleansing displacing roughly50 thousand residents.These actions changed demographics while boosting RSF’s foreign support network significantly.
Sudan’s economy suffered enormously.The war inflicted damages estimated at $200 billion.Drawing production dropped nearly70 percent; services plummeted49 percent; agriculture declined21 percent.With internal displacement surpassing8 million people plus more than2 million refugees alongside thousands killed,this deepened socioeconomic chaos profoundly.
Structural Causes Behind The Crisis
Home to over45 million inhabitants,Sudan boasts rich natural resources including depositsof gold,silver,chromoium,and platinum along with oiland gas reserves.Moreover,it holds84 million hectares suitable for cultivation plus vast livestock populations.despite these assets,the central government monopoly deprived borderland communities perpetuating cyclesof violence.The Rapid Support Forces leveraged tribal militias primarilyfromDarfur,gaining considerable financialand military strength as regional actors.
At war onset,RFS seized parts ofsKhartoumand critical infrastructure,but SAF regained urban control using air superiority.Still,RFS maintained control overDarfurvia sustained siege tactics supported externally.This dynamic clearly reflectsa center-periphery conflict:Army forces prioritize strategic area defensewhile RFS mobilizes peripheral groupsto underminethe capital’s holdover national unityafter decades reservationof statecontrol centrally.
Future Scenarios for Sudan’s Crisis
Recent developments highlight Kordofan State asa crucial frontline shaping this ongoing confrontation between SAFandRSF,both viewing itparamountfor national outcome,but possessing divergent goals.Forthe army,Kordofanservesasalonglast line protectingKhartoumand corepower institutions.Losing it could decisively shift favor towardsHemeti.In response,thearmy plans mass force consolidation,reinforcement deployment,andair dominanceutilization aiming todefendup tothe limit.RSF seeksKordofantoa strategicgain,to consolidatewesternterritorialclaimsfollowing successindarfur.Hemeti viewsvictoryhereasa stepping stone toeven broader territorial expansioninthenation.
Scenario One: Army Victory In Kordofan
an analysis suggests likely outcome sustaining army holdoverKordofan.RSFdespite localized gainsindarfer,cannot sustain effectivesiegeonAl-Obeid region,due chieflytogeographical openness,lengthy logisticschains,and vulnerabilitytocommercialairstrikes.Army enjoys secure airbases,reliable communicationsystems,and capacity toredeployunitsboostingdefense.Thismay lead totruncatedfrontlines wherearmy controls east/central,preserving status quo whileHemetimantains darfuroccupation.This resembles easternLibya modelwithdual power centers creating unofficial divisionbetweenmilitarypowers w/ rival administrations.
Scenario Two: rapid Support Forces Advance in Kordofan
Althoughpossible,it remainsshallow thatRSFaresuccessfulllycaptureswholeKordofan suchoperationrequiresexpanseforcelevelsescalatedcasualtiesandrisklossofdarfuriskeybase.IfRFSmovesforward here,SFA compelled toupgradeintensity deployingmaximalforces tryingtocounter advance,because losing thiszone opens pathwaytowardNiles threateningcapitaldirectly.
Scenario Three: Army Recaptures Darfur before Kordofan Battle Matures
The chanceofthearmypreemptivelyregainingdarfurterroritoryboskeforteldiminutive.Troublesustaining large manpower,severe logistical constraintsandreduced operational capacity hamperany attempt.Consequentlyarmyfocusesonfirmingtacticaldefenseinkorodfanusingitsasignedresslingforfuture counterattacksindarfur.
Overallbalancequestionscoalesceintomilitary stalemate.Army retainsstrategicurbanhighcommandcenters,butRSFmakesgrowing footholdswestwidening socio-political influence absentrestructuring power sharing resultingthanleading towardformalpartitionamultitudeparallel regimesisperil.
Conclusion
Sudanscurrentcrisis transcendsthescaleofa typicalcivilwarreflectsa historiccollapsepoliticalsocioeconomic fabrics.Deep roots inequity,focalizedKhartoumpowers alongwith centralizedgovernancepoliciesreshapedlivelihoodsvulnerableremotesparked emergencenonstate actors liketheRapidSupportForcesnow functionassemi-stateactors.Elfasherfallandsignificantspreadconflictkopviše extendtokordoafantrendspoisesudanremodelingequilibriumanalogoustolibyasplitbetweencompeting armedfactionsethnicallybacked distinctexternalsponsors.
