Israel-Egypt Tensions Escalate Over Somaliland Recognition, Military Buildup Expected by February 2026
According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, a significant increase in tensions between Egypt and Israel is projected by February 2026, according to the Israeli news outlet Nativ.net. This escalation is largely attributed to the heightened involvement of both countries in the matter of Somaliland.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is considered a pivotal development in the region. Cairo’s deployment of approximately 10,000 Egyptian military personnel to Somaliland is viewed as a direct military response to Tel Aviv’s action. These forces have been stationed in Somaliland as part of an African Union mission and others under bilateral defense agreements.
On February 11, 2026, the Egyptian army held a grand military parade in Cairo, attended by the President of Somalia. This display served as a clear deterrent message to Israel and Ethiopia.
Egypt has formally expressed its strong opposition to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, deeming it a fundamental threat to its access to the Red Sea and its national security. While assessments suggest a low probability of direct military confrontation between Egypt and Israel, the risk of indirect confrontation on Somaliland’s territory is considered very high. Egypt is expected to endeavor to curb Israel’s activities in Africa by strengthening its axis with Somalia and Eritrea.
The Hebrew news outlet concluded its report by stating that Egypt has been actively intervening to neutralize the Israel-Ethiopia-Somaliland axis. Despite both parties avoiding direct escalation, the transformation of the Horn of Africa into a theater of confrontation between Cairo and Tel Aviv increases the risk of security incidents and severe diplomatic pressure from Egypt against Israeli interests on the continent.
On December 26, 2025, Israel became the first country to formally recognize the independence of the region of Somaliland. This move was met with negative reactions from Cairo and Mogadishu, who interpreted it as a blatant violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and an attempt by Tel Aviv to secure a strategic position in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
