What is behind the scenes of changes in Georgia?

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, Irakli Gharibashvili again in the form Unexpectedly, he resigned from the post of prime minister for the second time, and Irakli Kobakhidze, the current head of the “Georgian Dream” party, replaced Gharibashvili with the post of prime minister of Georgia. The political policy of the Georgian Dream Party is as follows: the honorary chairman of the ruling party (Georgian Dream), namely Bidzina Ivanishvili, submits his candidate for the post of prime minister to the political council of the party, and after approval in the council, his candidate must be approved by the majority of the parliament. to convey that the majority of it is also in the possession of the Georgian Dream. This time, Ivanshvili’s candidate for the post of Prime Minister will be Irakli Kobakhidze.

What was decided at the meeting of the Georgian Dream Party is an intra-party transfer, which means that the positions of two Irakli will change on the eve of the Georgian parliamentary elections. given. Irakli Kobakhidze will replace Gharibashvili as Prime Minister and Garbiashvili will replace Kobakhidze as the head of the Georgian Dream Party.

Government policy Does it change?

With a simple survey, we can understand that there is no difference in the type of their views on the economy, social policy or foreign policy of the country. Irakli Kobakhidze and Irakli Gharibashvili have always represented a political party called “Georgia Dream”. It has become equipped with a single and common platform for government management. So, as a rule, the difference between the thoughts and personal views of the leaders is minimized. Most Georgian political experts believe that neither Gharibashvili nor Kobakhidze have a compromising attitude towards the opposition or the media, and this has come from within the party.

So it is expected that the campaign before the 2024 elections also be held in the background of aggressive speeches towards the opposition.

Why did the prime minister change?

According to the official spokesperson of Roya, the reason for the changes in the party and the post of prime minister is “intra-party democracy”. Gharibshvili explained his decision to leave the post in the last briefing as Prime Minister with “internal democracy” and “principle of rotation”: there are many successful leaders within the party and others should be given a chance.

But analysts as well as opposition political parties see behind this decision the influence of Bidzina Ivanishvili, who has officially returned to politics for the third time in the past month.

Something in Garibashvili’s actions seems to have angered Bidzina Ivanishvili. “Maybe he thought that Gharibashvili had become too powerful. There are also other speculations, including that Gharibashvili had a strong team by arranging his people in various and sensitive management positions, which was not accepted by Ivanshvili, and sometimes this became the Achilles heel of the party. On the other hand, it is said that he was guilty of elite corruption in Georgia. But perhaps the most important thing is to establish a strong line of communication with the heads of other countries such as China, which convinced the honorary chairman of the party to change the prime minister. Among other speculations, we can mention the change of the face of the government and the attempt to make political changes near the elections, so that maybe the dream of Georgia can continue to be the party accepted by the people of Georgia.

Another point that the politicians Georgians point out that Ivanshvili trusts Gharibashvili. Because according to the constitution of the party, the head of the election headquarters of the Dream of Georgia must be the head of the party, therefore Ivanshvili asked to be able to use the capacities of the resigned prime minister in another position, and it is speculated that after winning the elections, Gharibashvili will return to the position of prime minister.

Is corruption the reason for change?

When at the end of 2023, on December 30, Ivanishvili announced his reappearance as a politician in a “turn”, in his explanation, one of the main and important reasons for this decision was “the need to prevent the risk of corruption” in the ruling Raaya party. Georgia explained and repeated three times that the prime minister “will not change”.

Exactly one month later, 41-year-old Irakli Gharibashvili left the post of prime minister for the second time. Gharibashvili, who worked for the companies of Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili until 2012, first accepted responsibility and became the prime minister in Georgia in 2013, after Ivanishvili’s “first resignation” from politics.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, former president of Georgia and honorary leader of the party The dream of Georgia next to the resigned Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili

Only two years later, Gharibashvili suddenly resigned and gave only one reason to explain his action, “Now I just want to rest”.

Ivanishvili then publicly referred to Irakli Gharibashvili’s nepotism: I have said several times that your problem will be your relatives and your security. Public opinion should not be provoked and angered by this act of yours (nepotism).

Gharibashvili returned to the political structure of Georgia in the spring of 2019 after Ivanishvili’s “second entry” into politics. . He soon reached the position of the Minister of Defense in the cabinet of “Gyorgi Gakharia” and became the Prime Minister of Georgia for the second time after “Gakharia’s betrayal”.

His government in 2021 2022 saw double-digit economic growth (which was actually mainly due to the recovery from the corona pandemic and the migration of Russian citizens after the start of the war with Ukraine) and also recorded high inflation in the same period, the effects of which are still ongoing.

In the summer of 2023, Irakli Gharibashvili personally signed a “strategic partnership” agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping. “Roya” considers this as one of the main achievements of its foreign and economic policy.

After establishing a “strategic partnership” with China, the most important project in the port of Anaklia and under the middle corridor plan ( One Belt One Road) was defined in the Black Sea and Georgia’s economic relations with China took a broader form.

Irakli Gharibashvili also made personal connections with a Chinese state-owned enterprise, CEFC, which also had initiatives in Georgia. Gharibashvili received hundreds of thousands of lari for consulting from this company.

In 2023, one of the most controversial cases of elite corruption reported in Georgian media was the charter flight of the prime minister for his eldest son to France. Was. The investigation was not initiated because the authorities did not consider it necessary, but this case left adverse effects in the Georgian society and public opinion.

On the other hand, critics say that the talk Hai Ivanishvili’s comments about the “corrupt temptation” in the ruling party divert attention from the fact that Bidzina Ivanishvili is the center of creating the corrupt environment of the elite, he is the “architect of the corrupt infrastructure”.

Why Kobakhidze?

Irakli Kobakhidze Thursday, February 1 (12 Behman) officially for The position of the Prime Minister of Georgia was announced.

The expected promotion of Kobakhidze to the position of Prime Minister can be attributed to the fact that Ivanishvili trusts him more, he does not expect a threat from him. And he does not think that Kobakhidze shows “too much independence”.

Kobakhidze’s recent trip to the People’s Republic of China can be seen as an expression of Ivanshvili’s trust in him. During January 14-20, a delegation of members of the ruling party “Georgia Dream” led by Irakli Kobakhidze arrived in Beijing and Shanghai and held official meetings. to Irakli Kobakhidze by Ivanishvili, proving that he trusts Kobakhidze more than Irakli Gharibashvili.

Furthermore, the name of Irakli Kobakhidze, unlike Gharibashvili, is associated with corruption scandals. It has not been eaten, which is electorally very beneficial for Roya. Also, Kobakhidze did not have the opportunity to appoint his own people to different positions. It hasn’t been much or at least it hasn’t been possible. Unlike Gharibashvili, who has traditionally had rich tools for corruption in the executive branch. From this point of view, Kobakhidze may be a better and more transparent face for Roya voters than Gharibashvili.

« With the election campaign around the corner, Bidzina Ivanishvili probably considered that she should nominate someone with no experience in the executive branch as the leader of Georgia’s dream. It is true that Kobakhidze was the leader of the “Georgian Dream” party, but he was not in executive power, he is not officially responsible for the actions and promises accumulated over the past years, which are subject to public criticism.

However, unlike Gharibashvili’s departure in 2015, “Georgian Dream Party” does not leave him completely this time and according to the decision of the party’s leadership staff, he has been introduced as the leader of the party.

This means that Gharibashvili will continue to be the public face of the “Georgian Dream”. This may be related to the fact that Gharibashvili is an acceptable figure for a part of Roya voters, and it is better to keep him from the point of view of elections.”

What do the opponents say?

Pata Manjagaladze, “Agmashanbeli (Liberal) Party” : “Now they tell us that Kobakhidze sits on the bike, in the front seat, and Gharibashvili sits behind him, that is, it is a kind of game… Of course, something will change. For the aircliffs, but nothing will change for the people. This is worse, because Kobakhidze has nothing to do with economic or employment issues… This game (Bidzina Ivanishvili) is needed for elections, to deceive people, as if a new broom sweeps better”.

Levan Khabishvili, United National Movement (Saakashvili Party): “The changes are not related to the welfare of our citizens… We must understand very well that the government today does not serve the people, they motivate They want to make Bidzina Ivanishvili rich, make themselves rich, build new houses and villas for themselves and not to serve the people.

Teona Akobardia, Charles Michel Reform Group “: “Changing the pawns on the chessboard is a technique and tactic that Bidzina Ivanishvili used to win the game and always succeeded.”

Mamuka Khazradze, the leader of the Lelo (Western) party: “Anyone appointed by Bidzina Ivanishvili as prime minister cannot save the sunken ship of the Russian government’s “dream”. Due to corrupt deals, Gharibashvili should sit in the dock, not (in the chair) of the party chairman. Bidzina Ivanishvili confirmed that she is a key figure in corruption, nepotism and failed governance. Roya knows that his days are numbered. Society wants real change. The people of Georgia will soon abandon the government that serves the interests of Russia.”

Beka Lilvashvili, “For Georgia” (moderate separated from the Dream Party): “Power in This country is in the hands of Ivanishvili. It doesn’t matter who will be the voice of this power, who will be its image, Kobakhidze or Gharibashvili.”

Note: Mehdi Seif Tabrizi, an expert on Caucasus issues >

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