Will America abandon Ukraine?

At the end of the second year of the war between Ukraine and Russia, the “Wall Street Journal” published developments in the field and in an article entitled “Will the United States abandon Ukraine”: when Russian President Vladimir Putin in February 2022 tanks sent to Kiev, he bet that Western societies, especially Europe, which are heavily dependent on Russian energy, will not have the stamina to resist his attack and will eventually agree to the disintegration or complete disappearance of Ukraine.

Two years later, Ukraine proved to be a formidable foe, reclaiming half of the territory initially occupied by Russia and inflicting staggering losses on the much more powerful Russian military. Europe also avoided the economic shock of cutting off the supply of Russian natural gas and increased its military spending and obligations towards Ukraine. This month, the European Union overcame Hungary’s opposition and approved a new $54 billion aid package for Kiev.

However, Putin’s bet on the United States appears to be paying off, at least for now, as Moscow has successfully inserted itself into America’s domestic campaigns. Support for Ukraine, which two years ago was widely seen as a self-evident American national interest, has become a divisive partisan issue in an American election year.

A significant part of the Republican right has begun to praise Putin and even talk about the beauty of the Moscow metro and the quality of Russian supermarkets, while disparaging the government and military involved in Ukraine. For months, the Republican leadership of the US House of Representatives has blocked a bill authorizing new military aid to Ukraine, including the latest bipartisan bill that passed the Senate by a vote of 70 to 29.

Cutting the budget has caused a severe shortage of artillery shells in Ukrainian units. According to US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian commanders, this was the main reason why Russia was able to capture the Ukrainian city of Avdiyka this month and Moscow’s first major advance on the battlefield since May.

The sudden nature of aid cuts has put Ukraine in a particularly vulnerable spot. Russia has regrouped and is waging a new offensive across the war front, a push fueled by massive shipments of artillery shells and ballistic missiles from Moscow’s newfound ally, North Korea.

Andriy Zagorodniuk, the former Minister of Defense of Ukraine, who is an adviser to the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky, said: “The problem is not only that the American aid has been cut off, but that this aid has been cut off without prior warning and without giving us a chance to adjust.” , it has been disconnected; And it’s clear that if Ukraine doesn’t have what it needs to defend itself, Russia could gain the upper hand. If this crisis is not resolved and Ukraine does not receive aid, this will be a great gift to Putin.

The prospect of a disarmed Ukraine losing more territory in the coming months, coupled with renewed doubts about America’s commitment to defending its allies if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year (2025), is increasingly unsettling democracies. It worries in Europe and beyond. This is especially the case when Putin has created a de facto military alliance with North Korea and Iran, while at the same time getting closer to China.

Concern and anxiety are especially felt in Taiwan, which China considers its “renegade province” and has promised to “reunify” it with the mainland.

Wang Ting-yu, who is going to become the chairman of Taiwan’s parliament’s defense and foreign relations committee, warned that the US withdrawal from Ukraine, if it happens, would be a disaster and would encourage the leaders of Beijing, North Korea and other countries. They will realize that the “world leader” does not have the patience to support his allies; And if they think like this, they will make wrong decisions and wrong judgments.

It’s a warning echoed by the Biden administration and some prominent Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. He helped advance a bipartisan bill this month that included $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Senator McConnell said in an interview about the aid to Ukraine: The whole democratic world thinks this is important and we are the leader of this world. We cannot retreat. In my opinion, now is not the time to send the message that we are not up to our task. Most of this funding will go back to creating jobs in US industries.

While Europe and other allies currently provide more than half of Western support for Ukraine, only the United States has stockpiles of munitions and other weapons, such as air defense interceptors, that could significantly bolster the forces. Ukrainian help in the near future. According to military analysts, European ammunition production, although increasing, will not be enough to sustain the Ukrainian military until 2025 or even later. Some key pieces of military equipment can only be procured from US warehouses.

The Biden administration and congressional leaders of both parties have assured Ukrainian officials that cutting off U.S. supplies — now a decisive factor on the battlefield — will never happen. Mike Johnson, the new speaker of the US House of Representatives, who took office in October, said the same thing.

Now, although the latest Senate bill is likely to win an overwhelming majority in the House of Representatives, Johnson has refused to vote on it, saying he has other priorities. The House of Representatives is unlikely to pass aid to Ukraine until at least mid-March, and it appears unlikely that any additional funding for Ukraine will be passed by the current Congress.

Of course, the prospect of Trump’s victory in the November elections is above the debate in Congress. The former president has repeatedly said he will reach a quick peace deal in Ukraine, though he has not explained how or under what conditions. He also intensified his criticism of NATO in his campaign speech and indicated that he will not defend member states that fail to meet the military spending target of 2 percent of GDP.

Asked why many Republicans now oppose aid to Ukraine, Senator McConnell pointed to Trump’s influence and the isolationist spirit that has long permeated American politics, especially before World War II. Referring to Trump, McConnell said: Our possible presidential candidate is not eager to help Ukraine.

Officials in Washington and European capitals are skeptical about the prospect of any peace talks with Russia, dismissing any possibility of a deal before the U.S. presidential election in November.

Russia is also not backing down, and the newfound confidence (given the developments on the ground) from Moscow has prompted a wave of warnings from America’s allies in Europe and Asia about the potential domino effect of letting Russia in. To win in Ukraine has created. The stakes, unlike when the war began two years ago, are much higher today because of the hundreds of billions of dollars Western allies have spent on Ukraine and because of their repeated public pledges to stand by Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”

Samuel Charap, senior political scientist at the RAND think tank, who has advised caution on Ukraine in the past, said: “The level of US investment in the Ukrainian independence project has increased, and so the level of US credibility, It is evaluated based on Russia’s ability to achieve or not achieve its goals in Ukraine. If there is to be a dramatic turnaround in Ukraine, there will be much more confidence in the emerging bloc of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

Many Trump supporters who oppose more funding for Ukraine see this approach as part of a need to focus on China, a much stronger rival than Russia. On the contrary, Asian allies downplay the impact that US withdrawal in Europe could have on Asian security.

However, American voters seem to care equally about Europe and Asia. According to a recent Pew poll, about 74% of Americans believe that the war in Ukraine is important to the national interests of the United States; Just one percent less than the 75 percent who say the same about the tension between China and Taiwan.

Senator J.D. Vance, a Republican from Ohio who refused to attend a congressional panel meeting with Zelensky last week at the Munich Security Conference, said: “The United States should focus more on East Asia.” This will be the future of American foreign policy in the next 40 years and Europe must wake up to this reality. The problem with Europe is that it is not a sufficient deterrent on its own because it has not taken the initiative in its own security. I think the security cover of America has caused the security of Europe to disappear.