Russia and the crisis in West Asia; Kremlin’s concessions in the tension in which it has no role

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, the escalation of tension and conflict between the regime Zionism and the Palestinian resistance in Gaza and the West Bank have become an ideal crisis for Russia. Naturally, he gets a lot of points from this tension. What is happening in West Asia not only makes Moscow hopeful of changing the conditions in the field and further weakening Ukraine on the front lines of the war, but also convinces the Kremlin that the continuation of the adopted policies can lead to the deterioration of the Western-oriented international relations system.

The war in Gaza is the escape point of Russian foreign policy

For years, Russia has been the target of a variety of European far-right politicians and parties, from Hungary’s Jobbik to Marine Le Pen. France advocated for creating a gap in the Western structures, the results of this approach in the past years have been different. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ended the divisions within the West and once again united the countries on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean as in previous years.

However, the start of the war in Palestine, the differences between Western countries have returned to their previous intensity. First of all, the division and differences among American society and politicians in different states of the country, while the United States insists on Israel’s right to defend itself, on the other hand, fierce debates in the European Union about which position is more correct for Europe. There is.

Germany supports the actions of the Zionist regime, Spain is preparing to unilaterally recognize the Palestinian state, and Hungary is “pro-Israel” or Slovenia is “pro-Palestinian” and to Recently, England has also supported the establishment of the Palestinian state, and the Israeli regime itself, which is still part of the structure and discourse of the West, currently does not find a common ground with many of its Western partners.

Lack Unity at the government level complements the gap in the societies of these countries. Rallies against the crimes of the Zionist regime from Stockholm to Washington have become a normal thing. At the same time, the differences have reached the highest circles of power and the American media write about mass dissatisfaction in the American government agencies with the support policies of Israel in the administration of President Joe Biden.

In this situation, the problem of Ukraine is not only It is fading, but it is being eroded due to the need to resolve the tension and conflict between Palestine and the Israeli regime. Financial and military support. Biden continues to insist that support for Ukraine will not disappear with the increase in aid to Israel, but in recent weeks and at the beginning of the new year, we have seen a wide disagreement between the Democratic and Republican parties regarding the provision of military aid to Kiev.

However, how long can the United States practically support two major conflicts simultaneously? Moscow’s hope that the West will get tired of endless military aid to Kiev is closer to reality than ever.

Ultimately, policies supporting the Zionist regime, the legitimacy of the West’s arguments in support It weakens Ukraine among the countries of the global south, especially among the countries of the Middle East. Trying to prove the inadmissibility of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by emphasizing the moral component for the countries of the Middle East is now like an empty claim.

Photos of the ruins of Gaza, reports of thousands of dead children.

One ​​can talk for a long time about the various reasons for the war in Ukraine and operations. The Zionist regime discussed in Gaza, but for a significant part of the audience this result is clear; The United States condemned the killing of civilians by Russia in the strongest possible way, but it has not only remained silent about the killing of civilians by its biggest ally, the Israeli regime, but has supported this regime militarily and financially.

Kremlin has long been dominated by a realist view of world politics, based on this view what happens in the international space is an endless competition of states with different interests.

In this logic, continue The conflict in the Middle East, which breaks the entire strategy of the West towards Russia, is a good option for the Kremlin. Moreover, Moscow does not need to take action or make decisions to gain benefits, the depth of conflict between Palestine and Israel is very obvious and deep, and Israeli ground operations are unlikely to end quickly, and even then, big questions about The prospect of resolving the crisis and the shape of the administration of Gaza will remain. /span>

It cannot be said that the war in Gaza does not pose any threat to Russia itself. For example, the risk of the possible spread of the crisis beyond the borders of Palestine may involve the main forces capable of confronting Israel, such as Hezbollah and Iran.

The Israeli army is currently carrying out attacks on Syrian territory to force the “front to fight against Zionism” to miscalculate or react emotionally; Therefore, in various operations in Syria, he attacked the IRGC advisors on several occasions, which led to the martyrdom of several Iranian forces.

The participation of pro-Iranian forces in the war with Israel It will be serious for Moscow. Of course, the Russian side has been slowly moving towards Iran’s position in the Middle East for two years, but this does not mean that Moscow is ready to support Tehran in the battle with Israel. In the event of such a war, the Russians must clearly choose a side and also present a new definition of the presence of their forces in Syria. It does not seem. Since Iran and Hezbollah did not directly intervene in what was happening around Gaza in the first two months of the conflict, it is unlikely that they will reach such a conclusion in the future. Instead, Iran’s proxies will continue to engage in noisy but limited operations, exemplified by the regular shelling of occupied territories by Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

As a rule, for Tehran, a direct conflict with Israel and the United States will not result in benefits in the current international and regional conditions. In fact, Iran’s interests have been secured to some extent from the conflict between Hamas and the Israeli regime and the blows inflicted on this regime, including the failure of the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, or the failure of the United States’ image of Iran’s threat to the countries of the region.

Therefore, jeopardizing Iran’s main military asset in the region, Hezbollah, is not very useful, especially since the Zionist regime is stuck in Gaza for an indefinite period of time.

In addition to regional risks, the escalation of Israeli-Palestinian tensions also brings domestic risks for Russia. The problems of the Middle East have had an unexpected resonance in the Russian society. Judging by the statements of the authorities, the rise of anti-Semitic sentiments throughout Russia, especially in Muslim-majority regions such as Dagestan, has had a strong impact on the Russian political system.

Everything is going according to plan

Finally, the results of Russia’s foreign policy in the international and regional dimension, especially in the Middle East, after the escalation of tensions between Palestine-Israel has led the Kremlin to conclude that the overall direction of the country’s foreign policy has been chosen correctly.

A charismatic leader must not only have a set of useful skills, but He must be able to convince his subordinates of the correctness of his decision.

“The return of positive conditions is inevitable”, no matter how bad the situation seems, this is what Vladimir Putin himself apparently said. He believes in it and transfers this trust to lower political and military people. The coming successes reinforce both faith in Putin’s “lucky star” in power and determinism. Everything is in the hands of God, and of course God is with the Russians.

Here, in addition to mystical logic, there are more rational arguments for Moscow that the collapse of the Western international relations system is very it’s close. Today Palestine-Israel and tomorrow maybe China and Taiwan.

Therefore, it is hoped that the United States and Europe will not be able to isolate Russia with the support of the southern countries. The Global South no longer trusts the West and this means that new perspectives are opening up for Moscow in foreign policy.

Also, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East convinces the Kremlin that the international problems that What happened to Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine can be solved by the old proven method: wait until it solves itself.

This approach has already It has come to the aid of the Kremlin many times and now it has once again proven to be a very effective scenario. Even if the situation around the Ukrainian front does not go exactly as planned, a way out will be found. He cannot take action to solve it. Russia now cannot even act as a mediator because of Israel’s fear of Moscow’s approach to Tehran.

All that is left for Moscow is to repeat beautiful words about the need to create a system. Two governments and watching what is happening in the Middle East. The development of events now almost makes the Kremlin the main beneficiary of the events in West Asia and convinces the Russian elite about the correctness of the chosen path. Author: Mehdi Saif Tabrizi, a researcher in the field of Russia. and the Caucasus

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