How will the war in Ukraine proceed in the third year?

While the war in Ukraine entered its third year today (Saturday), the conflict in Maidan has almost reached a stalemate. In Ukraine, land that used to be fertile for farmers is now full of pits for soldiers to bury. Many of them are seen with simple wooden crosses, photos of the deceased, colorful flowers on the graves and yellow and blue flags of this country. Cities are more deserted than ever and classrooms are filled with a handful of students.

At the end of the two years of the war, there is no news of strong statements by the European Union and NATO in support of Ukraine, and the polls that showed the maximum support of the people of Europe and America for Kiev until last year, today show the other side of the people of the West. .

In the middle of the west turning away from Ukraine, the country’s economy has also been severely damaged by the war. According to a new World Bank study published last week, even if the war in Ukraine were to end now, rebuilding the country’s economy would cost $486 billion, which is 2.8 times the country’s economic return in 2023. This is apart from the cost of lives and manpower that Ukraine lost in two years.

What are the casualties of the Russian and Ukrainian armies in the two-year war?

Casualty statistics of the Ukrainian army are a state secret and the release of related information is strictly prohibited. However, late this summer, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that 61,207 Ukrainians had been killed and 49,368 wounded since the beginning of the war. The ministry also confirmed that 5,937 Russian soldiers were killed on the battlefield.

However, different sources announce different numbers of the number of soldiers killed on both sides, and due to the high sensitivity of the issue, in many cases the statistics are significantly different from each other and it is not possible to determine their accuracy. For example, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former head of the Wagner military group, whose soldiers also fought for Russia in the Ukraine war, previously said that his organization had lost more than 20,000 soldiers in Ukraine by the end of May 2023. He also claimed that the Russian army had 120,000 dead by the end of June.

In another estimate, American officials this August estimated the number of dead on both sides in the first 18 months of the war to be half a million people. According to the New York Times newspaper, quoting informed American sources, Russian military casualties include 120,000 dead and 180,000 wounded. These sources estimate the casualties of the Ukrainian side to be 70,000 dead and 100,000-120,000 wounded. The newspaper also states that the number of Russians on the battlefield is almost three times that of Ukrainian soldiers, and that Russia has more people to fill its ranks with.

What is the defense capacity of the two countries to continue the war?

Russia spends 6.5 percent of its total budget on battlefield compensation and can produce 125 tanks a month, the Royal United Services [Defense] Institute said this month. This amount is even more than enough to replace the tanks destroyed in recent wars.

Russian industry has also significantly increased production of artillery shells and multiple launch missile systems, along with imports of ammunition and ballistic missiles from North Korea. Meanwhile, calculations show that Ukraine needs to receive 240,000 more rounds per month to keep pace with Russia.

Currently, Russia is able to fire 5 bullets for every Ukrainian bullet. Desperate to receive more ammunition from the West, Ukrainian soldiers say in some areas they are only firing a few rounds a day just to avoid defeat.

To what extent has the advance of Russian forces been on the territory of Ukraine?

Since the start of the war in February 2022, Russian ground forces have quickly moved into action and within a few weeks have taken control of large areas of Ukraine and advanced to the outskirts of Kiev. One of the most important victories of Russia in this two-year war can be considered the capture of “Bakhmut”. In May 2023, Russian forces took control of this city, which is located in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, after months of intense fighting and heavy casualties. The strategic value of the city of Bakhmut was debated, but its symbolic value for Ukraine as an example of the country’s resistance against Russia was considered very important. It can be said that the capture of Bakhmut became a symbol of breaking the resistance of Ukrainian forces against Russia.

Recently, on the eve of the Ukrainian war entering its third year, the Ukrainian forces have completely withdrawn from the city of “Audioka” and this city has been fully occupied by the Russian forces. An event that has been evaluated as the second most important achievement of Russia after the capture of Bakhmut. Avdiyoka has been a battleground since 2014, when Russian-backed fighters seized large parts of the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Now almost all the population of this city has left it and its buildings have been almost completely destroyed. The fall of Avdioka was the biggest change in the front line of the war, which is more than a thousand kilometers long.

Russia has also carried out attacks around villages in the Southern Zaporizhia region, where Ukraine made gains during its 2023 counteroffensive.

In this map, you can see the territories controlled by Russia in Ukraine. The mentioned areas are marked with red color.

In any case, as Quincy Institute experts Anatole Lyons and George Beebe point out in their new report, “There is currently little realistic prospect for Ukraine to advance on the battlefield; And the more important danger is that Ukraine may run out of manpower and ammunition and expose itself to a devastating Russian counterattack.”

These two analysts say that the only and best solution is to bring all parties to the negotiating table before the destruction of Ukraine.