Democrats Lead in US Midterm Polls Amid Surge in Early Voting

According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, with the U.S. midterm elections approaching on Tuesday, nationwide polls suggest a lead for the Democratic Party, and millions of Americans have cast their votes before Election Day. Data published by the Mehr News Agency highlights this trend.

The average of election polls compiled by RealClearPolitics shows Democrats ahead of Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, with 51.4 percent support compared to 43.2 percent. Additionally, a poll by The Economist and YouGov indicates that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives after the elections, while 31 percent predict Republicans will maintain their majority in the chamber.

For the Senate, the race is assessed as closer, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic victory and 36 percent anticipating Republicans will retain their majority. Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Al Jazeera that the Democratic lead in House polls suggests their likelihood of controlling the chamber, but the fate of the Senate remains uncertain.

An analysis by The Associated Press published on Friday revealed that over 43 million Americans had cast their votes in person or by mail with five days remaining until the election. This figure is nearly 10 million higher than the early voting turnout at the same point in the 2022 midterm elections. In Texas, over 6.3 million people had voted by Wednesday, a significant increase from approximately 4.2 million at the same time in 2022, marking a 50 percent rise. In Georgia, more than 2.5 million votes were registered by Friday morning, surpassing the total of 2.3 million votes cast during the early voting period in 2022.

Field reports from Atlanta describe long lines at polling stations and increased youth participation. Some young voters cited social media and media attention on the elections as factors contributing to their heightened interest in political engagement. Early voting rates in states like Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas have also increased by over 30 percent compared to the same period in 2022. However, early voting statistics do not reveal which candidates voters have supported or determine the final election outcome.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has reversed his decision to cancel two campaign rallies in Kansas and Iowa, and is now scheduled to speak in both states on Sunday. The White House had previously announced that instead of attending these rallies, he would participate in nearly 20 tele-rallies. Trump’s campaign team believes his direct presence at rallies could help mobilize Republican voters, particularly in states with crucial Senate races.

Trump also attended a campaign rally in Florida on Friday, urging Republican supporters to participate in the elections. In Texas, Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton and Democratic candidate James Talarico are focusing their final efforts on the city of Houston. Paxton canceled his campaign event in El Paso to concentrate on Harris County, the state’s most populous county. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton also campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi on Friday, encouraging people to vote.

Trump is slated to first support Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson in Iowa on Sunday, and then attend a campaign rally in Kansas alongside Republican Senator Roger Marshall. In Kansas, Marshall faces a strong challenge from Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton. An Emerson College poll shows Hamilton leading Marshall 49 percent to 45 percent.

Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for the Senate seat in Alaska, is scheduled to attend a campaign event in Bethel. The Alaska Senate race is considered one of seven competitive contests that could be pivotal in determining the Republican majority in the Senate. This race has also been affected by a dispute over the presence of two candidates named ‘Dan Sullivan’. Trump has accused Democrats of enlisting an independent candidate with the same name to confuse voters and reduce the vote for the Republican senator. The Department of Justice has initiated legal action in this matter, and Peltola has denied any involvement in the alleged scheme.