Strategic Analyst Predicts New Regional Order Sans US Presence Amid Escalating Tensions

According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, strategic analyst Abdul Bari Atwan has posited that a new regional order is on the horizon, one that will not include the United States. Atwan’s analysis, published in Al-Rai Al-Youm newspaper, references claims made by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the Strait of Hormuz and identifies two significant events that he believes increase the likelihood of the ruling Republican Party’s defeat in the upcoming midterm elections.

The first event cited is a statement from Iran‘s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), asserting that three oil tankers caught fire and sank after encountering naval mines while attempting to navigate the southern routes of the Strait of Hormuz. This incident occurred just one day after the U.S. military had announced the neutralization of all Iranian naval mines allegedly placed in the main shipping lanes of the strait.

The second event highlighted is the sinking of an Israeli container ship in the Black Sea, near the coast of Bulgaria. The vessel was reportedly attacked by three maritime drones of unknown origin. Initial reports indicate the ship was carrying 421 containers, some of which contained high-explosive materials. The ship had departed from the port of Haifa in occupied Palestine.

Atwan noted that oil tankers striking naval mines is not a novel occurrence, emphasizing that the IRGC maintains near-complete control over the Strait of Hormuz. He also reported Iran’s successful capture of a highly advanced U.S. drone, identified as an MQM-170 model.

This comes despite President Trump’s assertions that maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to pre-crisis normalcy, with the volume of oil transported by tankers exceeding 20 million barrels per day.

Furthermore, Atwan commented on the attack against the Israeli container ship in the Black Sea, suggesting that if Iran was responsible, it would signify the expansion of its operational reach. This potential expansion could involve targeting U.S. and Israeli interests and bases outside the Middle East, particularly in Europe, its surrounding waters, and on the continent itself.

The U.S. proposal for resuming negotiations, reportedly conveyed by U.S. Vice President JD Vance to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei, is interpreted by Atwan as a formal and direct U.S. admission of the failure of a military solution in the conflict with Iran. He described it as a last-ditch effort to end the war shortly before the midterm elections, aimed at preventing a significant Republican defeat.

Conversely, Trump’s denial of authorizing his Vice President to make such an overture suggests internal discord between the President and his deputy. This could also indicate the Vice President acting independently, potentially positioning himself as a successor to lead the Republican Party in the post-election era, especially in the event of a loss.

Atwan concluded that the United States has been defeated in its conflict with Iran and has commenced its withdrawal from the Middle East. He stated this explains the evacuation of all U.S. forces and military bases in Syria, northern and southern Iraq, as well as the dismantling of U.S. facilities in the Persian Gulf region.

The visits of delegations from three major U.S. allies—Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan—to Tehran and their coordination with Iran may reflect these leaders’ acknowledgment of this reality, signaling the beginning of America’s regional disengagement. Consequently, these nations are reportedly moving towards greater self-reliance and the establishment of a regional security framework independent of the United States.