France’s surprising election and 10 upcoming scenarios

According to Webangah News quoted by Mehr News Agency, after the victory of the New Popular Front coalition in the French parliamentary elections, the country’s Liberation newspaper raised the question in an article that after the second round of elections in which the New Popular Front without The absolute majority won, what will happen.

In a report prepared by Lucy Alexander, this newspaper emphasized that the division of parliament into large and opposing factions will not allow the emergence of an absolute majority in this election. So that France faces a new political scene that has not been seen since 1958.

Although the French left movement came in first place in this election, with 289 representatives, it was far from the majority required to approve legislative plans and programs. to earn.

Here the French newspaper Liberation draws 10 scenarios for the next stage of the French parliamentary elections, which are as follows:

1. Interaction and coexistence: Since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, France has witnessed this situation three times, that is, where the political approach of the president was not the same as that of the prime minister and his government due to the defeat of the president in the parliamentary elections.

At the current stage, no one knows that French President Emmanuel Macron, who has always been used to concentrating power in his own hands, will face the new political reality of this country. How will he react? Especially in the field of approving laws and even the country’s budget.

There may be strong differences between the future prime minister and the French president, and the situation will be difficult for Macron personally.

2. Forming a coalition: Since the absolute majority in There is no parliament, it is possible to create an alliance between different political groups to form a ruling coalition. This is a common procedure in the parliamentary systems of the world, but it is considered unprecedented in France.

It is clear that the black propaganda of the French President’s camp against the left current does not help Macron’s supporters and the cooperation of other parties with them.

3. Forming a national unity government: This scenario is based on It is a plan that Emmanuel Macron had already thought of and tried to bring together the famous political groups in a coalition called the Republicans, but this plan never came to fruition and it does not seem to be on the agenda after the country’s parliamentary elections. .

4. Return to the Third Republic: since the law The French constitution prohibits any dissolution of the new parliament one year after the dissolution of the previous parliament. French political science professor Thomas Erhard predicts that a system similar to the Third Republic will be formed in France, which will create a period of instability. In the meantime, the big mistake of Macron and his advisers was that they did not understand that the dissolution of the parliament acts like a nuclear weapon, and threatening it is no different from its implementation, and the consequences are even greater.

5. Technocratic government: Technocratic government is a phrase that Recent days have become popular among the French, reminding of Macron’s view that the country should be run based on experience, not ideology. But this plan does not have clear dimensions and does not seem to be applicable.

6. Provisional government: The temporary government by an executive authority The resigned or deposed is governed with very limited powers and is placed in this position only to manage affairs in an emergency until finally a coalition agreement is reached to form the government. But the French are strangers to such a formula, although it is popular among their Belgian, Italian and German neighbors.

7. Dissolution of Parliament: Although the French constitution basically It does not allow Macron to dissolve parliament again before a year has passed. But there may be a way to dissolve the parliament again; Because the president, as the final guarantor of the country’s institutions, can find a new legal path to dissolve the parliament.

8. Macron’s resignation: Although “Marine Le Pen “The leader of the right-wing coalition of the National Rally of France announced during his election campaign that Macron had no choice but to resign, but Macron said, “This possibility is unlikely. You can trust me to work as your president and supporter until May 2027. Also, there is no rational benefit for Macron to resign from the presidency.

Analysts also believe that the dissolution of the parliament is of no use at this stage, but the president can choose to remain in office or leave it, and if the president If the president resigns, the Senate will be obliged to assume the duties of the president until early presidential elections are held.

9. Macron’s full powers: Rumor of resorting to Article 16 The constitution is denied by all experts to find a solution in the situation where there is no absolute majority in the parliament; Because giving full authority to the president is only possible when the country’s institutions, the nation’s independence, and the country’s territorial integrity are under threat.

10. Carrying out structural reforms: It is not possible to carry out structural reforms in such conditions, because the result of the parliamentary elections cannot be ignored; In particular, Macron still wants to protect the Fifth Republic, unlike the New Popular Front, which seeks to establish the Sixth Republic.