The International Monetary Fund raised the economic outlook for India and China
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This change is a big drop from the 8.2 percent growth in the fiscal year April 2023 to March 2024. According to the fund, India’s growth will continue to slow and will reach 6.5 percent in 2025. The most populous country in the world, which according to Goldman Sachs is going to become the second largest economy in the world by 2075. , in line with its efforts to become a main production hub, has attracted investors such as technology giants Apple and Google.
According to economists, Asian emerging market economies are the main engine of the global economy. Growth in India and China has been revised upwards to account for almost half of global growth. However, the outlook for the next five years is weak.
Expectations from China
China’s economy is expected to grow by 5 percent this year, which is unchanged from the May forecast of the International Monetary Fund. Is. That was higher than the 4.6 percent forecast in April and lower than the 5.2 percent growth in 2023, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
GDP of the world’s second-largest economy is expected to further decline to 4.5 percent in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook in July. 2029 will be on a downward path to 3.3%.
Gorinchas IMF economist says improved forecast for China’s economy for 2024 partly due to improved consumer activity And the export was stronger in the first quarter of the year. China’s economy has grown tremendously in the last 15 to 20 years and is generally much less dependent on the foreign sector for its growth than in the past.
Ahead of the International Monetary Fund’s report on Tuesday, official Chinese data showed the country’s economy grew 4.7 percent annually in the second quarter, below economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll. It is for a growth of 5.1 percent.
The International Monetary Fund announced: It is optimistic about the return of consumption in the next few years, but the decrease in the birth rate will prevent the improvement of the productivity level and, as a result, the economy will slow down. The growth of India and China will account for almost half of the global growth this year.
The growth of America and Europe
Global growth is expected to reach 3.2 percent in 2024, unchanged from its April forecast, and is likely to pick up to 3.3 percent in 2025, the International Monetary Fund said. will find The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.6 percent this year from 2023, down slightly from the 2.7 percent forecast in April. The inflation rate of the world’s largest economy is slowing down, down from 3.3 percent in May to 3 percent in June.
Jerome Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Monday that the central bank will not wait for inflation to cut interest rates. reach 2%, and added that the possibility of a hard landing for the country’s economy is unlikely.
Gorinchas believes that inflation dynamics, at least in America, are moving in the right direction; But the economy of this country has also seen bumps and it should be predicted that these bumps may increase and cause delays in the speed of economic growth and reduction of inflation. “text-align:justify”.
Elevation of the Eurozone economy
The growth of the euro zone has been upgraded to 0.9 percent this year, that is, 0.1 percentage point higher than April’s forecasts, due to the stronger movement of the service sector and net exports. It is expected in the first half of 2024.
The International Monetary Fund announced: Growth in the region is expected to increase to 1.5 percent in 2025 due to rising real wages and more investments. In terms of revisions, Spain is a bright spot in the Eurozone. This year’s forecast for this country has been upgraded to 2.4%, which was a large part of the revision due to the results that have been observed in the first quarter of the year due to the strengthening of the service sector, exports and also the increase in investment.
