Western Thinkers Pinpoint 2026 as Year of American Hegemony’s Decline Amidst Rising Global Multipolarity

According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, the third decade of the 21st century is witnessing a fundamental transformation in the international order, shifting from a unipolar world dominated by the United States to a period of geopolitical complexity that is reshaping the global landscape.

The magazine ‘New Statesman’ recently featured a cover story titled ‘The Great Decline,’ characterizing this as a decisive historical moment. In his accompanying article, John Gray argues that this decline is not the result of a transient accident or a conventional military defeat but rather a consequence of prolonged internal erosion and isolationist strategic decisions. The return of Donald Trump to the political scene and the systematic dismantling of alliances served as clear indicators of this trend.

Gray posits that American power derived its legitimacy not solely from its military might but from its ability to lead a global liberal order that served the interests of its allies. However, through the radical adoption of the ‘America First’ policy, Washington forfeited its role as the guarantor of global security. This compelled regional and international powers to seek alternatives and forge new alliances outside of the American sphere of influence.

AlH ed elaborates that this shift has not only weakened America’s political influence but has also led to a collapse of confidence in the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, the linchpin of its economic empire. America’s withdrawal from trade and climate agreements, coupled with its ongoing disputes with international institutions, created a significant vacuum. Powers such as China and Russia, with their strategic acumen, have swiftly filled this void, relegating the unipolar world to a historical footnote.

French intellectual Emmanuel Todd offers a deeper perspective focusing on the United States’ internal infrastructure and social fabric. In his book ‘The Collapse of the West,’ published in January 2024, he highlighted declining educational standards, rising mortality rates, and the disintegration of the family unit as early signs of this decline. Todd pointed to the immense class divide and severe social fragmentation within America, rendering it incapable of achieving national consensus on any strategic issue.

American scholar John Mearsheimer warned that the United States has made a grave strategic error by pushing Russia and China toward a close alliance. In his view, America’s decline stems from an ‘illusion of hegemony,’ which drove Washington to pursue military expansion beyond its capabilities, ultimately leading to the erosion of its military and political credibility against emerging regional powers.

Conversely, Thomas Friedman, a staunch proponent of globalization, wrote in recent articles for The New York Times that America has lost its competitive edge not due to a lack of power but because of a loss of its ‘moral and technical compass.’ He added that an over-reliance on sanctions has led to the ‘fragmentation of the global network’ that America once managed. Friedman believes that 2026 is the year of awakening to the reality that America can no longer impose its standards on the world.

Francis Fukuyama, in his studies from 2025, cautioned that a country once proud of its robust institutions is now suffering from political paralysis, hindering crucial decision-making and making foreign policy hostage to domestic partisan conflicts. This institutional weakness has fostered the perception globally that America is no longer a reliable partner. Such instability is the silent killer of any empire, as it loses its capacity for long-term prediction and planning.

The decline of the American empire, from the perspective of these thinkers, is the result of a convergence of internal and external crises within a single timeframe. The war that felled America was not merely one of artillery and missiles but a conflict over values, institutions, and economic stability. According to the aforementioned American magazine, the demise of the American empire embodies a policy of abandoning international responsibility and retreating behind its borders. It appears that 2026 will be recognized as the year of the official declaration of the end of the American era and the beginning of a multipolar period.

Iran has transformed into a regional and international pole. The characteristics of Iran’s emergence as an active regional and international pole following recent military and political developments are evident through a series of geopolitical and military indicators, demonstrating its transition from a powerful regional state to an influential player in the balance of major powers. These components can be summarized in the following points:

• Military Capability and Strategic Deterrence: Recent conflicts have showcased Iran’s ability to bypass traditional air defense systems using drones, hypersonic missiles, and ballistic missiles. This development is no longer merely a display of power but has imposed a new deterrence equation, rendering the targeting of Iran’s depth an internationally costly adventure and compelling major powers to reconsider their military options in the region.
• Strategic Independence and Eastern Alliances: Tehran has succeeded in breaking the policy of international isolation by deepening its strategic partnerships with emerging powers, particularly within the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization blocs. This position has transformed Tehran from a besieged country into an essential link in the North-South transport corridor, making its stability a vital interest for China and Russia and reinforcing its status as a pole that cannot be overlooked in shaping the features of the new multipolar world order.
• Unified Field Management and Regional Depth: Recent conflicts have demonstrated Tehran’s high capacity to cooperate with a complex network of its allies in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine, in precise military and political coordination. This has granted Iran ‘geopolitical veto’ power over global trade routes and energy supplies, a characteristic of major powers.
• Technological and Industrial Superiority: Iran’s military production sector, especially in the field of drones, has become an effective player in international conflicts beyond the Middle East. Iran’s ability to develop advanced and self-sufficient military technology has given it a competitive advantage, making it a reliable arsenal in international conflicts and bolstering Iran’s credibility as an emerging industrial and military pole.
• Political Stability and Failure of Calculation Changes: Iran’s political system has shown a high capacity to absorb major shocks, whether severe economic pressures or direct military threats. This internal stability, combined with Iran’s active diplomacy in complex negotiations, indicates maturity in the functioning of an independent state that manages its crises with patience and consolidates its role as a partner that cannot be overlooked in engineering regional and international security.