Analyst Highlights Iran’s Surprise Potential in Future Conflicts
According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, strategic analyst Abdel Bari Atwan has detailed Iran‘s potential to surprise adversaries in future conflicts, particularly in the context of the Strait of Hormuz. Atwan pointed to Iran’s interception of 12 supertankers that allegedly attempted to traverse the Strait of Hormuz without adhering to Iranian security protocols. He argued that this action presents a challenge to the United States and invalidates its assertions of dominion over the strait and its capacity to restore commercial navigation.
Atwan also suggested that U.S. President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from threats to bomb Iran with the “mother of all bombs” stemmed from apprehension regarding the consequences. He stated that the Iranian nation and government no longer fear American-Israeli attacks and are highly prepared to confront any new aggression. The analyst posited that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to expedite military action against Iran are driven by similar fear.
The analyst further commented that an eight-month blockade of Iran, including the closure of ports, failed to achieve regime change, and that the enemy was unsuccessful in inciting street protests among the Iranian populace. He emphasized that the outcome was the opposite, with national solidarity increasing alongside support for the country’s leadership and government.
Atwan noted that Trump’s declaration of support for Netanyahu in the Israeli parliamentary elections indicated that the U.S. president had placed all his political capital on the Likud party and its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu.
Regarding a potential future conflict involving an American-Israeli coalition, Atwan predicted that Iran’s allies would emerge victorious and grow stronger daily. He described these allies as being on high alert, ready to enter hostilities and cross all red lines. Hezbollah in Lebanon has reportedly recovered from its previous blows and fully regained its military capabilities. Ansar Allah in Yemen is said to be more powerful than before, and the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and Hamas remain active and unyielding.
The Palestinian analyst asserted that the American-Israeli coalition would be the biggest loser in such a confrontation, regardless of who initiated the aggression or if Iran took the lead in bombing. He cited Iran’s speedboats, thousands of sea-launched missiles, and cluster munitions as being poised for a major engagement.
Atwan outlined Iran’s strategy for a future war, focusing on inflicting maximum casualties on American military personnel, whether on aircraft carriers, warships, or at U.S. bases in Jordan and the Persian Gulf, and capturing the largest possible number of them. He suggested that the return of 50,000 U.S. Marines from American naval vessels in body bags would be the shortest path to American defeat and ignominious withdrawal from the region, drawing parallels to U.S. exits from Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Vietnam.
He concluded by referencing a 12-day conflict in 2025, during which Iran’s cluster-warhead missiles allegedly devastated large areas of Tel Aviv, forcing 7 million Israeli settlers into shelters nightly. Atwan speculated that in a future conflict, skyscrapers in Haifa, Tel Aviv, Ashkelon, Ashdod, and Eilat might collapse in a manner reminiscent of the World Trade Center’s destruction in New York. He suggested that even Israeli military censorship would struggle to conceal and prevent the documentation of such devastating events.
