What are the obstacles to the peace agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia? – The final part

according to the report of the international group Tasnim news agency, in the first part of the report We addressed the obstacles to the peace agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia and announced that the geopolitical struggle for the South Caucasus has increased and no matter how much the Republic of Azerbaijan tries to mediate between the intermediary powers and reduce the geopolitical tension surrounding this process, but the withdrawal of the Armenian government from traditional alliances , actions against Russia and Western support for Armenia have created great problems for the peace process.

Arman Grigorian, a political commentator and professor at Lehigh University in America, says: There are basic issues that the parties They have differences of opinion and it takes time to reach an agreement on them. There are two main obstacles. One is the issue of relations between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, clearly what will be the situation, who will control it, who will guarantee it. I believe that the contract has been delayed because there is uncertainty about who will be the guarantor of the contract. Armenia has eased tensions, but a deal is unlikely to be signed before the end of the year. Azerbaijan does not consider the signing of this agreement acceptable without an official agreement regarding the compensation for 30 years of occupation, the official transfer of war criminals to Baku, as well as the Zangzor transport corridor. If all this happens, Azerbaijan can agree to peace. If Armenia does not agree to this issue, the status quo can be continued without an agreement.

Onenik James Krikorian, a British journalist believes: one of the problematic issues in the peace agreement negotiations is the issue of rights and It is the security of the Armenians who have left Karabagh. If you remember, the Grenada declaration referred to their voluntary return as well as some sort of international mechanism to ensure and monitor their return. It should be noted that this statement was not signed by Azerbaijan, which was not present at the meeting of the leaders of Armenia, France, Germany and the Council of Europe. In response to this issue, Baku also talks about the voluntary return of Azerbaijanis who left Armenia 35 years ago. This reciprocity is certainly not new. The same thing happened in the matter of transportation.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said in a speech at a forum organized by ADA University: If Armenians living in Azerbaijan are mentioned as a national minority in the draft agreement. It is suggested to give the rights of Azerbaijanis expelled from Armenia and return to Armenia and live there. Also, this issue should be reflected in the agreement. Their rights and security should be protected like the rights and security of Armenians in Karabakh. Thus, after the anti-terrorist operation on September 19, this obstacle seems to have been removed, either we mention both national minorities in the peace treaty or we don’t mention it at all.

The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, says about this issue: the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh must be ensured within the framework of the constitution of Azerbaijan. We believe that ethnic Armenians should have the right to return or at least visit that part of Azerbaijan and their security and rights should be ensured. There are international standards regarding the protection of minorities, which must be observed according to the Constitution of Azerbaijan and the rights of minorities must be ensured within their framework.

Failure to sign peace agreement increases risks

According to Armenian political commentator Arman Grigoryan, Azerbaijan has problems that cannot be solved diplomatically. He creates to solve them by force.

He believes: power asymmetry and geopolitical uncertainty between Azerbaijan and Armenia deepen this problem. If the parties are unable to reach a diplomatic solution, there is always the temptation to use force to achieve what they failed to achieve at the negotiating table. Not signing the peace agreement in a short period of time will make it difficult to solve the problem. I have never considered such a situation normal or healthy for neighboring governments and societies.

Krikorian notes that delaying this process is not in the interest of the people of both countries, who continue to live in complete isolation from live together.

How should mediating countries act?

Farhad Mamedov, an Azerbaijani political commentator, believes that Russia and America have a negative influence on the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The less initiative countries have, the better. I think that the adaptation to the current period, that is, to the conditions after the counter-terrorist operation of September 19, is underway. In this process, we witnessed the crisis with Azerbaijan in the approach of the West. Azerbaijan and Armenia can continue contacts without intermediaries and take steps regarding this peace agreement as long as the international geopolitical background allows.

Toral Hamid, an Azerbaijani political commentator believes The joint statement of Azerbaijan and Armenia on December 7 and the meeting of the border demarcation commissions of Armenia and Azerbaijan on November 30 at the Kazakh-Ijvan border are proof that the parties can have direct negotiations. However, since demarcation will be based on Soviet maps, Russian mediation may be needed in any case. Here, too, a lot depends on the position that Armenia will show.

Onenik James Krikorian, a British journalist and political commentator, points out that it is important for mediators to be neutral. : Although the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia discuss in bilateral meetings in Geneva, Tbilisi or Washington, high-level meetings with the presence of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia are always held with the presence of other parties, and this leads to increasingly serious problems with the increasing influence of geopolitical interests. .

He considers the neighboring country of Georgia to be a suitable place for bilateral meetings and emphasizes: I personally would like Georgia to be used more as a place for negotiations, regardless of whether the mediation process continues. or not This simplifies logistics in terms of travel and frequency and does not have to be at the level of leaders. The foreign ministers met once in Tbilisi and I don’t understand why they should travel to America to meet and negotiate with each other, when there is a more neutral and closer place.

Zahed Arouj A representative of the National Assembly of the Republic of Azerbaijan believes that the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia can be signed after the presidential elections of Azerbaijan.

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