The results of Russia-China relations in 2023 and its prospects for 2024

According to the report of the international group Tasnim news agency, the internet newspaper “Vozgliad” wrote in an analysis : Experts have evaluated the results of the relations between Russia and China in 2023 and noted that based on this result, the authorities of Moscow and Beijing will continue to develop bilateral cooperation in all fields.

In the commercial field, the level of relations between Russia and China reached more than 200 billion dollars earlier than expected, while the share of the dollar in the commercial transactions of the two countries is steadily decreasing. In the political arena, Beijing is not only promoting, together with Moscow, the agenda of creating a multipolar world, but it is also changing its attitude towards the conflict around Ukraine. Now we have to see what is the reason for this and what tasks are Russia and China facing in 2024?

Last year was marked by an even greater strengthening of political relations between Russia and China. The officials of the two countries regularly “coordinated their positions” through consultations at different levels.

In March, the world’s attention was focused on Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, during which detailed talks between The President of China and Vladimir Putin did. The meeting led to the signing of two joint statements: the deepening of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction between Russia and China on the eve of entering a new era, as well as a plan for the development of key areas of bilateral economic cooperation until 2030. The leaders of the two countries reaffirmed their common understanding of the order They show the world of the future and consider “multipolarization, economic globalization and democratization of international relations” as an irreversible process.

The meeting between Putin and Xi caused a lot of noise in the western press and efforts were made. This will diminish the importance of this event. However, warm cooperative relations between Moscow and Beijing were strengthened in 2023 with Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing to participate in the Belt and Road Forum, and again later in the year with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s visit to the People’s Republic of China. China has been confirmed.

It should be noted that there have been no significant changes in China’s stance towards Ukraine. But if at the beginning of last year China spoke very cautiously about Russian military action, by the end of the year Beijing reached a completely different level of support for Moscow’s positions.

In February, the Chinese Foreign Ministry launched a comprehensive peace initiative It had presented 12 articles that were similar to Russia’s demands in many ways. Before the publication of this initiative, Wang Yi, the current foreign minister of China, met with Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov. While preparing such an important document, the Beijing authorities did not consult Zelensky’s office and the proposed proposals did not reflect Kyiv’s position on the conflict. But a further change in Beijing’s attitude towards the events in Ukraine occurred in December. Wang Lutong, director of the European Department of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, responded to the request of European politicians to convince Moscow to give concessions to resolve this dispute: “Russia is a very independent country, and President Putin makes decisions based on his country’s national interests and security.” “Therefore, after years of conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine, the position of the People’s Republic of China has become more friendly towards Moscow, and this issue has certainly caused very unpleasant feelings in Brussels and Washington.

At the same time, China’s opposition to American hegemony is not limited to Ukraine issues. For example, Beijing, together with Moscow, is trying to create a multipolar world order.

In this regard, Xi Jinping, like Vladimir Putin, evaluated the results of the BRICS summit held in South Africa last summer. and the closeness of their positions can be a new impetus to bilateral initiatives related to the activities of all international organizations in which the two countries are present. Of course, to fully implement the political aspirations of Russia and China, they They need a reliable economic base, and in this regard, the two countries made significant progress in improving it by 2023 and achieved their long-standing goal of achieving a turnover of 200 billion dollars. It is important to emphasize that Moscow and Beijing achieved this goal ahead of schedule, as they were originally supposed to reach the threshold by 2024, but in October, Vladimir Putin announced that the goal had already been achieved.

There has also been tremendous progress in the de-dollarization of trade relations between Russia and China. In autumn, the share of settlements in national currencies between the two countries reached 90% of the total number of commercial transactions. The two countries reached this point at a really fast pace: at the beginning of 2022, this figure was “frozen” at about 20 percent, but Moscow and Beijing managed to increase it to 70 percent by May 2023. This pace shows that it is only a matter of time before the full use of the yuan and ruble in bilateral trade.

Confidence in the “partner currency” within the two countries is also increasing. Russia has switched to the Chinese currency when concluding transactions with third countries, for example, with India. In addition, it was the yuan that replaced the dollar and euro in the gold and currency reserves of the Russian Federation and in the national welfare fund of the country. Its share has increased to a record of 60%. Financial changes also affected the increase in the volume of trade between the two countries. Thus, payments for oil, coal and some metals transactions between the two countries were almost completely transferred to yuan.

In 2023, humanitarian cooperation between Russia and China also expanded, and tourism connections between the two countries. has been resumed. Only in the first quarter of 2023, the Russian Consulate General in China issued more than 50,000 visas. Russians also found the opportunity for group tourism to Chinese cities for the first time. In addition, Chinese students have shown more interest in learning the Russian language and joint programs for higher education in the two countries are actively being developed.

Changes in the views of Russia and China in the field of foreign policy

However, the sky of relations between Russia and China in 2023 was not without clouds. In May, the Chinese side voted in favor of a UN General Assembly resolution that actually recognized Russia as an aggressor. Xi Jinping’s meeting with Joe Biden also caused a lot of noise: a number of Russian experts wrote about the possibility of Beijing’s readiness to abandon the development of relations with Moscow in favor of normalizing dialogue with the United States.

Russian economic cooperation And China also raises questions. If Russia mainly supplies raw materials to China, the almonds have saturated Russian domestic markets with high-tech goods. The main achievement of China in the framework of bilateral relations is the increase of its presence in the Russian car market. Chinese brands were able to replace the European companies that left. Currently, about 60% of all vehicle imports to Russia come from China, which is a solid result. For Moscow, the main victory is the lifting of restrictions on the export of fish and meat to China. Of course, according to experts, the relations between the two countries have enough trust to overcome these problems. The authorities of Moscow and Beijing have proven that they are able to negotiate and reach compromises on the most difficult issues, and this is the clearest sign of the readiness of Russia and China to strengthen bilateral relations and mutual respect.

Regarding political cooperation, Experts point to the importance of Russia and China’s support for the multipolar world doctrine. But the point is that Moscow and Beijing chose a completely different way to achieve this world order. China has developed throughout its history as a trading superpower that values ​​free economic relations above all else. In this regard, Beijing is ready to compromise with Western countries in order to maintain the main driver of growth.

While Russia reacts more calmly to the need for direct military conflict with imperialist forces. Moscow is used to periodically distance itself from the Western world and is not afraid of this situation, while China evaluates the risk without foreign ties as an existential threat. This is precisely the reason for China’s decision. It was to present a plan for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine. They still hope that there is a diplomatic way out of the current situation. Of course, the important point is that China is clearly convinced of the unwillingness of the United States and the European Union to help end this conflict. It allows the two countries to resolve their minor differences while actively increasing their economic interaction. Thus, Beijing and Moscow will have closer cooperation in all fields in 2024, proving in practice that warm relations between the two great powers can be maintained and even strengthened despite global changes.