war in Yemen last year; An informal cessation of hostilities without valid military achievements

Mehr News Agency, international group: The war in Yemen last year was a different year. The end of the war was not officially announced, but the war practically stopped and many and serious attacks were not carried out by the Saudi coalition against Yemen. In fact, at the beginning of 2023, it became clear that Saudi Arabia has come to the conclusion that it will not have a valid military achievement in the war against Yemen.

In this article, the reasons for Saudi Arabia’s failure in the war in Yemen and moving towards reconciliation with the National Salvation government in one year The past is briefly reviewed.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates formed a coalition on March 26, 2015 to counter Ansarullah’s rise to power in Yemen. They attacked Yemen. The perception and claim of Saudi Arabia was that in less than a month, it can defeat Ansarullah and return Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, the then resigned president of Yemen, to the head of power in Sana’a. Despite this, the war in Yemen lasted for 8 years, and the Saudis not only failed to defeat Ansarullah and its allies, but they were actually trapped in the swamp of Yemen, and their vulnerabilities were made public, and somehow they accepted that they were unable to defeat the Yemenis. Meanwhile, more than 100,000 Yemenis were martyred and injured in this war, about 4 million people were displaced inside and outside, and a large part of Yemen’s infrastructure was destroyed. However, Ansarullah and the Yemeni army not only did not retreat and did not surrender, but by increasing their deterrence power, they inflicted heavy blows on Saudi Arabia and the UAE and even targeted the economic arteries of the two countries, especially Saudi Arabia, with missile and drone attacks. /span>

The important question is that despite the silence of the international community and even the support of Western powers to Saudi Arabia, why the war in Yemen Did it not go according to the perception and interests of Saudi Arabia? In response to this question, we can refer to the following:

1. The superiority of the Yemeni national identity over Saudi hired mercenaries

Unlike Saudi Arabia, which used foreign mercenaries for the war with Yemen, and the Saudi forces, especially in the war They did not have a presence on the ground, the Yemeni front was composed of local forces who entered the war to defend their territorial integrity and national identity. Naturally, in such a situation, the native force has a high motivation to defend its territorial integrity and homeland, but the mercenary and rented force that participated in the war with only material motivation, does not have a high military capability. The war in Yemen proved that Saudi Arabia, as a regional power, is facing the weakness of manpower in the military dimension.

2. The belief and faith of Yemenis in victory

Another reason for the failure of the Saudis in the war in Yemen was the Yemenis’ belief in victory. It is not an exaggeration to say that the people of Yemen are a strange and new political and social phenomenon in the scene of West Asia. On the one hand, these people resisted the daily bombing of this country by the Saudi coalition for 8 years, and on the other hand, after the war of the Zionist regime against Yemen, millions of Yemenis came to the streets weekly and supported the military action against the ships bound for the land. The occupying forces declare their support for the people of Gaza. This pattern of behavior is mostly due to the faith of the Yemeni people and also their belief in the power of resistance. Saudi Arabia did not consider such an important indicator and entered the war against the Yemenis.

3. Strengthening the deterrence power of Yemenis

Another important factor that caused the failure of Saudi Arabia in the military scene against Yemen was the improvement of Yemen’s deterrence power during the 8 It was a year of war. The Yemenis, who did not have much to say against the Saudis in the early years of the war and mostly witnessed daily bombardment and did not have much power to strike against Saudi Arabia and its allies, over time they managed to get drones and missiles that landed in the farthest parts of Saudi Arabia. and inflicted heavy blows on this country.

Attacks against Saudi facilities in Al-Baqiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia in September 2019 were among the most important attacks that destroyed the production capacity The oil affected this country and even Abdul Aziz bin Salman, the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, said that the night of the attack on Baghiq and Khurais was the most bitter night of his life. He emphasized that “on the night of the accident, he felt the biggest failure of his life, because Saudi Arabia prides itself on being a safe and reliable source of energy in the world, but due to the explosion, half of its production capacity was lost, and about the inability Aramco was afraid of providing oil exports.”

Therefore, improving the deterrence power of the Yemenis was an important factor that led the Saudis to this conclusion, the passage of time is not the only reason Their victory in the war will not be against Yemen, but will result in heavier defeats for them. According to the development plans that Muhammad bin Salman has in mind for Saudi Arabia, including the 2030 plan, the continuation of the war with Yemen would have a negative effect on these plans because the improvement of Yemeni drone and missile power had actually affected the security of Saudi Arabia.

4. Disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the scene of the war in Yemen

Another reason in this regard is the disclosure of differences between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in various scenes, including It was in the war in Yemen. The UAE was the most important partner of Saudi Arabia in the 8-year war against Yemen, but this country gradually moved towards seeking a share from Saudi Arabia and even welcomed Saudi Arabia’s sinking into the Yemen swamp.

In this regard, the media wrote that the UAE is going its own way in Yemen and the dispute with Saudi Arabia is due to the dominance of pro-government forces. It was more visible in the Southern Transitional Council on Aden in 2019. It can even be said that the UAE preferred cooperation with the Zionist regime to cooperation and alignment with Saudi Arabia and tried to open Tel Aviv’s foothold in Yemen. Meanwhile, the attacks of Ansarullah and the Yemeni army were also focused on Saudi Arabia, especially in the last two years, and the UAE was somehow spared from these attacks. Therefore, Riyadh came to the conclusion that it is practically alone in the war against Yemen and pays the costs of this war alone. Therefore, he preferred to move toward stopping the war and compromise with Ansarullah.

Result

The fact is that the war in Yemen practically stopped at the end of the eighth year. This war has caused heavy losses for the Yemenis and even Saudi Arabia, especially the questioning of its military credibility, but one of the most important consequences of the war was the stabilization of the position of Ansarullah and the National Salvation government in Yemen’s power structure. This issue also caused Saudi Arabia to put negotiations and dialogues with the National Salvation Government of Yemen and the authorities of Ansarullah on the agenda.