Iran Rewrites War Strategy, Securing Place in History, Analyst Says
According to the International Desk of Webangah News Agency, strategic analyst Abdel Bari Atwan has detailed recent regional tensions, focusing on the conflict between the United States and Iran. Atwan highlighted the ongoing naval confrontations and Iran’s missile response, which reportedly struck an American aircraft carrier and two destroyers, noting the U.S. withdrawal from threats and President Donald Trump’s subsequent retreat from earlier posturing.
Atwan stated that Iranian officials have adopted a new strategy, departing from their previous approach of “self-restraint” and “calculated” responses to de-escalate tensions. The new strategy emphasizes “retaliatory and very rapid responses,” expanding the scope of conflict, and deploying advanced precision missiles. This, he suggests, has created shockwaves among adversaries and led to a rollback by American and Zionist forces.
The analyst pointed to several indicators, including repeated threats from Iranian officials such as Supreme National Security Council Secretary General Sardar Mohsen Rezaei and Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. He also cited American apprehension about potential missile attacks on their bases in Jordan and other regional locations. Atwan suggested that this consternation partly explains Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s subterranean threats, vowing unprecedented retaliation if Iran attacked occupied territories.
Atwan added that Iran’s new political and military leadership has transitioned from “cautious attacks” to “widespread assaults,” utilizing new weaponry not previously deployed in confrontations. This shift aims to solidify a deterrence policy based on “preemptive, immediate, and rapid strikes against enemy targets,” rather than awaiting enemy attacks.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf summarized Iran’s new deterrence policy, stating, “Should there be any disruption to Iran’s oil exports, not a single drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz or any other transit point.” This implies the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, along with potential strikes on oil fields and American oil companies across the region, in addition to their military bases.
The senior regional analyst noted that the vast majority of Arab oil-producing countries, particularly those in the Persian Gulf, have not seen a single dollar deposited into their treasuries from oil and gas exports over the past five months. This has resulted in severe budget deficits, forcing them to rely on financial reserves held in Western banks or seek financial loans to cover shortfalls. Furthermore, most of these nations are implementing domestic cost-cutting measures and austerity policies in preparation for a prolonged conflict.
Atwan commented on Netanyahu’s threats against Iran, despite repeated failures to alter its governance. He asserted that what Netanyahu fails to recognize or ignores is that a major attack against Iran could lead to the demise of the Zionist regime within hours.
He further explained that Netanyahu’s withdrawal from direct U.S. participation in the recent aggression against Iran stemmed from fear of Iranian precision missiles and the missiles of resistance groups in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. Atwan claimed Netanyahu had attempted aggression against Iran three times in the past two years, resulting in the destruction of several cities in occupied territories, from Tel Aviv to Haifa, Dimona, Eilat, and Safed, although these images of destruction were reportedly suppressed from media circulation.
Atwan concluded his article by stating that it is not Israel that has become more powerful than ever, but rather Iran, which has entered history as the first nation to dare to attack U.S. aircraft carriers, whether directly or through its allies.
