Biden’s new plan and the mystery of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

According to the international group Tasnim news agency, far The invalidity of the escalation of the war in Gaza, the presentation of the ceasefire plan and finally the failure of the peace talks have started this time from Washington. On May 31, US Democratic President Joe Biden announced a three-stage peace plan to reporters, which was previously approved by the leaders of Tel Aviv, Cairo and Doha.

In the second stage, the Americans demand the exchange of all prisoners in exchange for withdrawal, without providing a guarantee for the end of the war. The Israeli army left Gaza. In the third stage, the parties are supposed to negotiate and reach an understanding on a comprehensive plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Due to the lack of attention to the legitimate demands of Hamas in this proposed package, three scenarios regarding the end of this plan can be imagined, which we will examine in the following.

continuing the status quo

The lack of attention to the legitimate demands of the Islamic movement Hamas regarding the need to end the occupation and non-interference in the political affairs of the Palestinian nation can be the reason for the failure of the three-stage plan Before being raised in the official space. In addition to this, Netanyahu’s threat from extremist forces such as Betsalel Smutrich, Minister of Finance and Itamar Benguir, Minister of Internal Security, to not accept the ceasefire proposal, has put Bibi in a complicated situation.

Although the continuation of the war in the Gaza or Lebanon fronts can help Netanyahu’s political survival, he needs some tactical flexibility to reduce the pressure of public opinion and also to maintain the support umbrella of Western partners. Zionist warmongers have put the Prime Minister of the Zionist regime on a one-way road by using the “Cabinet Fall” card, which will lead to the quagmire of occupation and the weakening of the regime’s political, economic and military capabilities. Based on this, one of the possible scenarios regarding the end of Biden’s phased peace plan is the failure to respond to the demands and wishes of all effective actors on the battlefield.

Temporary ceasefire or a chance to renew!

The most important ambiguity in the plan presented by Joe Biden is the failure to foresee a timely and reliable mechanism to draw a vision for the end of the war. In this scenario, the Zionist regime will have the opportunity to renew its strength without giving any serious guarantee about the end of the war, the complete withdrawal from Gaza or the political-security future of Palestine, and after getting rid of the comprehensive attack of public opinion, once again under the pretext The destruction of Hamas enters the Gaza Strip. Another positive point of this scenario for Tel Aviv is the exchange of all prisoners without giving in to the strategic demands of Hamas. On this basis, the acceptance of such a plan by the resistance, which has the upper hand in field developments, seems far from expected.

Activation of the northern front and changing the playing field

The focus of world public opinion on the ongoing developments in Gaza and the Rafah region has pushed the Zionist war machine to this exchange, while strengthening its offensive-defensive capabilities in the northern front, under the pretext of returning the Zionists to their homes and pushing them back. Hezbollah forces, to talk about their military plans to invade south Lebanon.

During the last weeks, Amos Hochstein, the special representative of the American president In the case of border disputes between Lebanon and Israel, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejournay tried to reduce tensions on the northern front by presenting a so-called compromise plan. But they also ignored Hezbollah’s red lines regarding the establishment and authority of UNIFIL forces and the determination of the status of the occupied areas, they simply demanded the withdrawal of the resistance forces in exchange for providing financial aid to the Lebanese army and government!

Presenting proposals inconsistent with the realities on the ground will not only not help to establish peace in the region, but by destroying the “golden time” it will provide the necessary ground for Israel to invade the northern neighbor. Although the Lebanese resistance under the leadership of “Syed Resist” has no desire to start a large-scale war in the region, if needed, it will use its modern weapons to confront the aggressors and restore the balance in the eastern Mediterranean.

spreading shadows The war in Gaza has increased the efforts of the foreign policy and national security team of the Biden administration to reach a ceasefire point and end the war. According to surveys conducted in America, the war in Gaza has directly and indirectly affected a part of the society that voted for progressive forces and ethnic-religious minorities. Although this effect has not yet reached a significant figure, with the continuation of the Gaza war and the genocide of Palestinian citizens, there is a possibility of noticeable changes in the results of polls and presidential elections.

Author: Mohammad Bayat, researcher of Middle East issues

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